生物多样性 ›› 2022, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (8): 21443.  DOI: 10.17520/biods.2021443

• 研究报告: 植物多样性 •    下一篇

紫茎泽兰在中国的气候生态位稳定且其分布范围仍有进一步扩展的趋势

魏博1,2, 刘林山1, 谷昌军1,2, 于海彬3, 张镱锂1,2,*(), 张炳华1,2, 崔伯豪1,2, 宫殿清1,2, 土艳丽4   

  1. 1.中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所陆地表层格局与模拟重点实验室, 北京 100101
    2.中国科学院大学, 北京 100049
    3.广州大学生命科学学院, 广州 510275
    4.西藏自治区高原生物研究所, 拉萨 850001
  • 收稿日期:2021-11-07 接受日期:2022-03-29 出版日期:2022-08-20 发布日期:2022-08-31
  • 通讯作者: 张镱锂
  • 作者简介:*E-mail: zhangyl@igsnrr.ac.cn
  • 基金资助:
    第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究(2019QZKK0603);中国科学院战略性先导科技专项(XDA20040201);西藏外来物种调查与风险评估(ZD20170021)

The climate niche is stable and the distribution area of Ageratina adenophora is predicted to expand in China

Bo Wei1,2, Linshan Liu1, Changjun Gu1,2, Haibin Yu3, Yili Zhang1,2,*(), Binghua Zhang1,2, Bohao Cui1,2, Dianqing Gong1,2, Yanli Tu4   

  1. 1. Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences. Beijing 100101
    2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049
    3. School of Life Sciences, Guangzhou University, Guangzhou 510275
    4. Tibet Plateau Institute of Biology, Lhasa 850001
  • Received:2021-11-07 Accepted:2022-03-29 Online:2022-08-20 Published:2022-08-31
  • Contact: Yili Zhang

摘要:

明确入侵物种气候生态位的时空动态格局, 不仅有助于理解入侵物种生态位的变化趋势, 还可以使物种分布模型更真实地预测物种的扩散动态。本文使用恶性入侵植物紫茎泽兰(Ageratina adenophora)在原产地及我国的分布点和环境因子数据, 结合生态位分析及物种分布模型, 分析了紫茎泽兰入侵至我国后其气候生态位的时空变化特征、地理分布格局变化及其限制因子。结果表明: (1)紫茎泽兰入侵至我国后其气候生态位在时间和空间上虽略有扩张, 但仍保持较高的稳定性。尤其是入侵的初始阶段(1980年之前)稳定性最高(NS = 0.995), 此后其气候生态位的稳定性逐渐降低, 具体表现为该植物在中国更倾向于分布在潮湿(高最暖季降水量)、寒冷(低最干季平均温)且平均日较差低的生境。(2)过去50年里紫茎泽兰的适宜分布范围显著增加(151.77%-271.14%), 且其适宜分布区的重心在2010年之前表现出向东北(贵州西南部、四川南部)扩散的趋势, 2010年以后表现出向西南(云南北部、贵州北部)扩散的趋势。在扩散过程中, 该物种的气候生态位稳定性也表现出随着纬度的增加而逐渐降低的趋势。(3)未来气候变化情景下, 紫茎泽兰的适宜分布范围将进一步增加(111.97%), 到2040年该物种基本可以扩散至其整个潜在适宜分布区, 仅在藏东南地区有小范围的适宜生境受扩散限制无法达到。

关键词: 生物入侵, 紫茎泽兰, 气候生态位, 潜在分布

Abstract

Aim: Understanding the spatiotemporal climate niche dynamics of invasive species not only helps us recognize the trend of change in their niche, but also enables a more accurate prediction of the distribution model for the diffusion dynamics of species. In this study, Ageratina adenophora (Asteraceae), a highly aggressive invasive plant, was selected to analyze whether its climate niche changed and predicted its distribution pattern in future.

Methods: We utilized the species occurrence data and bioclimatic variables to analyze the spatiotemporal climate niche dynamics, pattern of geographical distribution, and main limiting factors of the species based on a niche analysis and species distribution model.

Results: We found that the climate niche of A. adenophora slightly expanded, but remained highly stable. The climate niche of the initial introduction stage (before 1980) was the most stable, and the stability of its climate niche gradually decreased over time. In particular, this species was more inclined to grow in humid (high precipitation of warmest quarter), cold (low mean temperature of driest quarter), and low mean diurnal range habitats in China. The suitable distribution range of A. adenophora increased significantly from 151.77% to 271.14% during the past five decades, and the center of its suitable distribution area exhibited a trend of diffusion to the Northeast (Southwest Guizhou and Southern Sichuan) before 2010, and to the Southwest (Northern Yunnan and Northern Guizhou) after 2010. The stability of the climate niche of this species also tended to decrease as the species diffused to higher latitudes. The suitable distribution range of A. adenophora will increase by 111.97% and can basically disperse to the whole potential suitable distribution range in 2040. Only a small range of suitable habitat in the southeastern Xizang was immune to colonization due to dispersal limitation.

Conclusion: As the suitable distribution area of A. adenophora in China has increased during the past five decades, its climate niche has remained highly stable. Ageratina adenophora could disperse further in the future, and the min temperature of coldest month is the main variable that limits the northward dispersal of A. adenophora.

Key words: biological invasion, Ageratina adenophora, climate niche, potential distribution