紫茎泽兰在中国的气候生态位稳定且其分布范围仍有进一步扩展的趋势

doi:10.17520/biods.2021443

生物多样性 ›› 2022, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (8): 21443. DOI: 10.17520/biods.2021443

所属专题：生物入侵

• 研究报告: 植物多样性 • 下一篇

紫茎泽兰在中国的气候生态位稳定且其分布范围仍有进一步扩展的趋势

魏博¹^,², 刘林山¹, 谷昌军¹^,², 于海彬³, 张镱锂¹^,²^,^*(), 张炳华¹^,², 崔伯豪¹^,², 宫殿清¹^,², 土艳丽⁴

1.中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所陆地表层格局与模拟重点实验室, 北京 100101
2.中国科学院大学, 北京 100049
3.广州大学生命科学学院, 广州 510275
4.西藏自治区高原生物研究所, 拉萨 850001

收稿日期:2021-11-07 接受日期:2022-03-29 出版日期:2022-08-20 发布日期:2022-08-31
通讯作者: 张镱锂
作者简介:*E-mail: zhangyl@igsnrr.ac.cn
基金资助:
第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究(2019QZKK0603);中国科学院战略性先导科技专项(XDA20040201);西藏外来物种调查与风险评估(ZD20170021)

The climate niche is stable and the distribution area of Ageratina adenophora is predicted to expand in China

Bo Wei¹^,², Linshan Liu¹, Changjun Gu¹^,², Haibin Yu³, Yili Zhang¹^,²^,^*(), Binghua Zhang¹^,², Bohao Cui¹^,², Dianqing Gong¹^,², Yanli Tu⁴

1. Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences. Beijing 100101
2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049
3. School of Life Sciences, Guangzhou University, Guangzhou 510275
4. Tibet Plateau Institute of Biology, Lhasa 850001

Received:2021-11-07 Accepted:2022-03-29 Online:2022-08-20 Published:2022-08-31
Contact: Yili Zhang

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

明确入侵物种气候生态位的时空动态格局, 不仅有助于理解入侵物种生态位的变化趋势, 还可以使物种分布模型更真实地预测物种的扩散动态。本文使用恶性入侵植物紫茎泽兰(Ageratina adenophora)在原产地及我国的分布点和环境因子数据, 结合生态位分析及物种分布模型, 分析了紫茎泽兰入侵至我国后其气候生态位的时空变化特征、地理分布格局变化及其限制因子。结果表明: (1)紫茎泽兰入侵至我国后其气候生态位在时间和空间上虽略有扩张, 但仍保持较高的稳定性。尤其是入侵的初始阶段(1980年之前)稳定性最高(NS = 0.995), 此后其气候生态位的稳定性逐渐降低, 具体表现为该植物在中国更倾向于分布在潮湿(高最暖季降水量)、寒冷(低最干季平均温)且平均日较差低的生境。(2)过去50年里紫茎泽兰的适宜分布范围显著增加(151.77%-271.14%), 且其适宜分布区的重心在2010年之前表现出向东北(贵州西南部、四川南部)扩散的趋势, 2010年以后表现出向西南(云南北部、贵州北部)扩散的趋势。在扩散过程中, 该物种的气候生态位稳定性也表现出随着纬度的增加而逐渐降低的趋势。(3)未来气候变化情景下, 紫茎泽兰的适宜分布范围将进一步增加(111.97%), 到2040年该物种基本可以扩散至其整个潜在适宜分布区, 仅在藏东南地区有小范围的适宜生境受扩散限制无法达到。

关键词: 生物入侵, 紫茎泽兰, 气候生态位, 潜在分布

Abstract

Aim: Understanding the spatiotemporal climate niche dynamics of invasive species not only helps us recognize the trend of change in their niche, but also enables a more accurate prediction of the distribution model for the diffusion dynamics of species. In this study, Ageratina adenophora (Asteraceae), a highly aggressive invasive plant, was selected to analyze whether its climate niche changed and predicted its distribution pattern in future.

Methods: We utilized the species occurrence data and bioclimatic variables to analyze the spatiotemporal climate niche dynamics, pattern of geographical distribution, and main limiting factors of the species based on a niche analysis and species distribution model.

Results: We found that the climate niche of A. adenophora slightly expanded, but remained highly stable. The climate niche of the initial introduction stage (before 1980) was the most stable, and the stability of its climate niche gradually decreased over time. In particular, this species was more inclined to grow in humid (high precipitation of warmest quarter), cold (low mean temperature of driest quarter), and low mean diurnal range habitats in China. The suitable distribution range of A. adenophora increased significantly from 151.77% to 271.14% during the past five decades, and the center of its suitable distribution area exhibited a trend of diffusion to the Northeast (Southwest Guizhou and Southern Sichuan) before 2010, and to the Southwest (Northern Yunnan and Northern Guizhou) after 2010. The stability of the climate niche of this species also tended to decrease as the species diffused to higher latitudes. The suitable distribution range of A. adenophora will increase by 111.97% and can basically disperse to the whole potential suitable distribution range in 2040. Only a small range of suitable habitat in the southeastern Xizang was immune to colonization due to dispersal limitation.

Conclusion: As the suitable distribution area of A. adenophora in China has increased during the past five decades, its climate niche has remained highly stable. Ageratina adenophora could disperse further in the future, and the min temperature of coldest month is the main variable that limits the northward dispersal of A. adenophora.

Key words: biological invasion, Ageratina adenophora, climate niche, potential distribution

魏博, 刘林山, 谷昌军, 于海彬, 张镱锂, 张炳华, 崔伯豪, 宫殿清, 土艳丽 (2022) 紫茎泽兰在中国的气候生态位稳定且其分布范围仍有进一步扩展的趋势. 生物多样性, 30, 21443. DOI: 10.17520/biods.2021443.

Bo Wei, Linshan Liu, Changjun Gu, Haibin Yu, Yili Zhang, Binghua Zhang, Bohao Cui, Dianqing Gong, Yanli Tu (2022) The climate niche is stable and the distribution area of Ageratina adenophora is predicted to expand in China. Biodiversity Science, 30, 21443. DOI: 10.17520/biods.2021443.

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链接本文: https://www.biodiversity-science.net/CN/10.17520/biods.2021443

https://www.biodiversity-science.net/CN/Y2022/V30/I8/21443

图/表 8

图1 不同时间(A)及空间(B)上紫茎泽兰在我国的气候生态位的变化特征

Fig. 1 Climate niche dynamics of Ageratina adenophora in China in different temporal (A) and spatial (B)

表1 不同时期入侵地与原产地紫茎泽兰气候生态位的稳定性与生态位扩张

Table 1 Climate niche stability and expansion of Ageratina adenophora in different periods compared with the native region

	1971-1980	1971-1990	1971-2000	1971-2010	1971-2020
生态位稳定性 Niche stability (NS)	0.995	0.953	0.909	0.881	0.859
生态位扩张 Niche expansion (NE)	0.005	0.047	0.091	0.119	0.141

图2 紫茎泽兰在原产地与我国主要的生物气候因子差异

Fig. 2 Differences of the three bioclimatic variables of Ageratina adenophora between native and China

表2 与原产地相比不同入侵区域紫茎泽兰气候生态位的稳定性与生态位扩张

Table 2 Climate niche stability and expansion of Ageratina adenophora in the different invasive regions compared with the native region

	云南 Yunnan	广西 Guangxi	贵州 Guizhou	四川 Sichuan	重庆 Chongqing	西藏 Xizang
生态位稳定性 Niche stability (NS)	0.959	0.990	0.902	0.832	1.000	1.000
生态位扩张 Niche expansion (NE)	0.041	0.010	0.098	0.168	0	0

图3 过去50年紫茎泽兰潜在分布整体变化趋势

Fig. 3 Total change trend of potential distribution of Ageratina adenophora in the past 50 years

图4 不同时期紫茎泽兰在中国的潜在分布(A-E)及其重心变化(F)

Fig. 4 Potential distribution (A-E) and center of gravity (F) of Ageratina adenophora change during different periods in China

图5 影响紫茎泽兰分布的7个生物气候变量的多元环境相似度面(MESS)和最不相似变量(MoD)。 Bio 1: 年平均温度; Bio 2: 平均日较差; Bio 6: 最冷月最低温; Bio 9: 最干季平均温; Bio 12: 年平均降水量; Bio 18: 最暖季降水量; Bio 19: 最冷季降水量。

Fig. 5 Multivariate environmental similarity surface (MESS), the most dissimilar variable (MoD) of seven bioclimatic variables that affect the distribution of Ageratina adenophora. Bio 1, Annual mean temperature; Bio 2, Mean diurnal range; Bio 6, Min temperature of coldest month; Bio 9, Mean temperature of driest quarter; Bio 12, Annual precipitation; Bio 18, Precipitation of warmest quarter; Bio 19, Precipitation of coldest quarter.

图6 紫茎泽兰在2021-2040年的潜在扩散动态

Fig. 6 Potential dispersal dynamics of Ageratina adenophora from 2021 to 2040

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紫茎泽兰在中国的气候生态位稳定且其分布范围仍有进一步扩展的趋势

The climate niche is stable and the distribution area of Ageratina adenophora is predicted to expand in China

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