基于MaxEnt模型预测白唇鹿的潜在分布区

doi:10.17520/biods.2017080

生物多样性 ›› 2018, Vol. 26 ›› Issue (2): 171-176. DOI: 10.17520/biods.2017080

所属专题：青藏高原生物多样性与生态安全

基于MaxEnt模型预测白唇鹿的潜在分布区

崔绍朋^1,^2,^3#, 罗晓^1,^2#, 李春旺^1,², 胡慧建⁴, 蒋志刚^1,^2,^*()

1 .中国科学院动物研究所动物生态与保护生物学重点实验室, 北京 100101
2 .中国科学院大学, 北京 100049
3 .山西农业大学林学院, 山西太谷 030801
4 .广东省生物资源应用研究所, 广州 510260

收稿日期:2017-03-15 接受日期:2017-11-16 出版日期:2018-02-20 发布日期:2018-05-05
通讯作者: 蒋志刚
作者简介:# 共同第一作者
基金资助:
国家重大研发计划项目(2016YFC0503303)、国家自然科学基金(31572260, 31372175)和科技基础性专项(2013FY110300)

Predicting the potential distribution of white-lipped deer using the MaxEnt model

Shaopeng Cui^1,^2,^3#, Xiao Luo^1,^2#, Chunwang Li^1,², Huijian Hu⁴, Zhigang Jiang^1,^2,^*()

1 Key Laboratory of Animal Ecology and Conservation Biology, Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101
2 University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049
3 College of Forestry, Shanxi Agricultural University, Taigu, Shanxi 030801
4 Guangdong Institute of Applied Biological Resources, Guangzhou 510260

Received:2017-03-15 Accepted:2017-11-16 Online:2018-02-20 Published:2018-05-05
Contact: Jiang Zhigang
About author:# Co-first authors

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

研究物种分布格局对制定有效保护措施至关重要。本研究从文献记录和实地调查中获取97个分布点, 筛选出7个重要环境变量, 采用最大熵(MaxEnt)模型分析了中国青藏高原特有种白唇鹿(Przewalskium albirostris)的潜在分布区域。结果显示: 白唇鹿潜在分布区主要位于青藏高原东部, 适宜生境呈现出以西藏、青海和四川三省交界地带为核心向四周扩散的模式。刀切法(Jackknife)分析表明, 地形、气温季节变化和年降水量是决定白唇鹿分布的重要因素, 人类影响变量贡献相对较小。白唇鹿种群现状尚不清晰, 建议对该物种进行全面深入调查。

关键词: 最大熵模型, 白唇鹿, 青藏高原, 潜在分布区

Abstract

Species distribution is critical for developing effective conservation measures. The potential geographic distribution of the white-lipped deer (Przewalskium albirostris), which is endemic to the Qinghai- Tibetan Plateau, was delineated using the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model with 97 occurrence records and 7 environmental variables. The species occurrences were collected from literature and field investigations. Our results showed that the potential range of the white-lipped deer included the eastern part of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau and the potential habitat spread from one core region to neighboring regions among Tibet, Qinghai, and Sichuan provinces. The Jackknife test indicated that the topographic variable, temperature seasonality, and annual precipitation were the most important predictive factors for the model, while the human activity variable made a relatively small contribution. The current distribution and status of the white-lipped deer on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau is unclear and we suggest further research is needed on the species.

Key words: MaxEnt, white-lipped deer, Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, potential distribution

崔绍朋, 罗晓, 李春旺, 胡慧建, 蒋志刚 (2018) 基于MaxEnt模型预测白唇鹿的潜在分布区. 生物多样性, 26, 171-176. DOI: 10.17520/biods.2017080.

Shaopeng Cui, Xiao Luo, Chunwang Li, Huijian Hu, Zhigang Jiang (2018) Predicting the potential distribution of white-lipped deer using the MaxEnt model. Biodiversity Science, 26, 171-176. DOI: 10.17520/biods.2017080.

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链接本文: https://www.biodiversity-science.net/CN/10.17520/biods.2017080

https://www.biodiversity-science.net/CN/Y2018/V26/I2/171

图/表 3

表1 预测白唇鹿潜在分布区时所用环境变量

Table 1 Environmental variables used to model the potential range of the white-lipped deer

编码 Code	描述 Description	来源 Source
Bio4	气温季节变化 Temperature seasonality	WorldClim database Version 1.4
Bio12	年降水量 Annual precipitation	WorldClim database Version 1.4
NDVI_Summer	夏季归一化植被指数 Normalized difference vegetation index in summer	Chinese Natural Resources Database
Altitude	海拔 Altitude	USGS’s Hydro-1K dataset
Slope	坡度 Slope	USGS’s Hydro-1K dataset
HFI	人类足迹指数 Human footprint influence	Last of the Wild Data Version 2
Stocking rate	放牧强度 Stocking rate	Food and Agriculture Organization

图1 刀切法分析单个变量在建立分布模型时的重要性。对每个变量而言, 蓝色表示只用该变量时的模型“收益”; 绿色表示在移除该变量而使用其他变量建模时总体“收益”; 最下方红色条带表示所有变量进入模型后的收益结果。环境变量含义见表1。

Fig. 1 The Jackknife test for evaluating the relative importance of environmental variables in the development of the MaxEnt model. The blue bar shows the “total gain” achieved with the given predictor only. The green bar shows the “total gain” resulting from inclusion of all predictors except the given predictor. The bottom red bar shows the gain with all variables. For variable meanings, see Table 1.

图2 白唇鹿在青藏高原的潜在分布范围

Fig. 2 The potential distribution of white-lipped deer (Przewalskium albirostris) on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

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基于MaxEnt模型预测白唇鹿的潜在分布区

Predicting the potential distribution of white-lipped deer using the MaxEnt model

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