未来气候变化下两种红景天植物的脆弱性

doi:10.17520/biods.2021209

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

气候变化对全球的物种多样性有深远影响, 尤其是对高山物种多样性。研究未来气候变化下物种的灭绝风险对生物多样性保护具有重要的意义。本文针对青藏高原的2种重要药用植物大花红景天(Rhodiola crenulata)和菊叶红景天(R. chrysanthemifolia), 利用气候生态位因子分析法研究了它们对气候变化的敏感性、暴露性和脆弱性, 讨论了2种“共享社会经济途径” (SSP2-45和SSP5-85)情景下的未来气候对这2个物种脆弱性的影响。同时计算了2种红景天的气候生态位的边缘性和特化性, 通过主成分分析法对其气候生态位进行了二维可视化, 并分析了它们的气候变化脆弱性与气候生态位之间的关系。结果表明, 未来气候变化情景下2种红景天在其分布区都显示出西部脆弱性高而东部脆弱性低的特征, 而脆弱性都表现为较低的横断山脉地区将成为其未来气候避难所。2种红景天在SSP5-85气候情景下的脆弱性高于SSP2-45, 资源和能源密集型社会经济途径(即SSP5-85)将会增大物种的灭绝风险。此外, 被《中国物种红色名录》评估为无危的菊叶红景天的气候变化脆弱性反而大于被评估为濒危的大花红景天。生态位因子分析结果表明大花红景天的生态位边缘性和特化性都低于菊叶红景天, 研究推断同地区不同物种的气候变化脆弱性主要由物种的气候生态位决定。

关键词: 气候变化, 脆弱性, 濒危物种保护, 红景天, 气候生态位因子分析法

Abstract

Aims: Climate change has a profound impact on global species diversity, especially alpine species diversity. Furthermore, the number of species currently threatened by climate change may increase as climate change. Studying the extinction risk of species under future climate change is of great significance to biodiversity conservation. Rhodiola crenulata and R. chrysanthemifolia are two important medicinal plants distributed on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. However, the potential effects of climate change on each species have not been widely researched. In this study, we investigate the vulnerability of each species to climate change and discuss the relationship between species vulnerability and climatic niche. In addition, we test whether climate change will affect the threat ranking of species in red list.
Methods: In this study, we studied the vulnerability of R. crenulata and R. chrysanthemifolia to climate change using climate-niche factor analysis. We then discussed the influence of climate on the vulnerability of both species change in the context of two “Shared Socioeconomic Pathways” (i.e. SSP2-45 and SSP5-85). Next, we calculated the marginality and specialization of the two species. At the same time, we visualized the climate niches of each species using principal component analysis and analyzed the relationship between climate niches and vulnerabilities of both species.
Results: Our results indicate that the vulnerability of each species is high in the western region of their range, and low in the eastern region of their range. Both species have lower vulnerability to climate change in the Hengduan Mountains, which will serve as a climate refugium for the two species. The vulnerability of the two species under SSP5-85 is higher than that under SSP2-45, and the resource- and energy-intensive socioeconomic pathways (i.e. SSP5-85) will increase the extinction risk of both species in the future. Rhodiola chrysanthemifolia, which is classified as Least Concern on China Species Red List, is more vulnerable to climate change than R. crenulata, which is classified as Endangered. Niche analysis demonstrates that niche marginality and specialization of R. crenulata were lower than that of R. chrysanthemifolia.
Conclusions: Our results suggest that the vulnerability of different species to climate change inhabiting the same region is primarily determined by the climate niche of each species. Climate change may affect the threat ranking of species in red list. It is necessary to consider the impact of climate change when assessing threats to species.

Key words: climate change, vulnerability, endangered species protection, Rhodiola, climate-niche factor analysis

王文婷, 杨婷婷, 金磊, 蒋家民 (2021) 未来气候变化下两种红景天植物的脆弱性. 生物多样性, 29, 1620-1628. DOI: 10.17520/biods.2021209.

Wenting Wang, Tingting Yang, Lei Jin, Jiamin Jiang (2021) Vulnerability of two Rhodiola species under climate change in the future. Biodiversity Science, 29, 1620-1628. DOI: 10.17520/biods.2021209.

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链接本文: https://www.biodiversity-science.net/CN/10.17520/biods.2021209

https://www.biodiversity-science.net/CN/Y2021/V29/I12/1620

图/表 7

图1 青藏高原及其邻近地区2种红景天植物的样本分布; 图中红框内区域为研究区。青藏高原的界限数据来源于国家科技基础条件平台——国家地球系统科学数据中心(http://www.geodata.cn)。

Fig. 1 Occurrence data for two Rhodiola species studied on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and its adjacent areas. The area in the red box is the study area. The boundary data of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is downloaded from National Earth System Science Data Center, National Science & Technology Infrastructure of China (http://www.geodata.cn).

表1 大花红景天和菊叶红景天的敏感性因子以及不同“共享社会经济途径” (SSPs)情景下的偏离性因子和脆弱性因子。粗体表示每列中2个幅度最大的系数。

Table 1 Sensitivity factors of Rhodiola crenulata and R. chrysanthemifolia, as well as departure factors and vulnerability factors under different shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). The two widest coefficients in each column are shown in bold.

生物气候 Bioclimate	大花红景天 R. crenulate					菊叶红景天 R. chrysanthemifolia
	敏感性Sensitivity	偏离性 Departure		脆弱性 Vulnerability		敏感性 Sensitivity	偏离性 Departure		脆弱性 Vulnerability
	敏感性Sensitivity	SSP2-45	SSP5-85	SSP2-45	SSP5-85	敏感性 Sensitivity	SSP2-45	SSP5-85	SSP2-45	SSP5-85
平均日温差 Mean diurnal range	2.4	0.24	0.33	1.7	1.79	2.43	0.22	0.3	1.7	1.8
等温性 Isothermality	3.6	0.17	0.23	2	2.1	4.78	0.17	0.2	2.4	2.4
最暖季平均气温 Mean temperature of warmest quarter	6.2	0.28	0.42	2.8	2.97	11.6	0.28	0.4	3.9	4
季节性降水量 Precipitation seasonality	2	0.09	0.12	1.5	1.5	2.65	0.07	0.1	1.7	1.7
最暖季降水量 Precipitation of warmest quarter	13	0.08	0.12	3.7	3.79	17.1	0.08	0.1	4.3	4.4
最冷季降水量 Precipitation of coldest quarter	1.5	0.03	0.04	1.3	1.26	2.55	0.02	0	1.6	1.6

表2 大花红景天和菊叶红景天的特化性、边缘性和敏感性的总体指标以及不同“共享社会经济途径” (SSPs)情景下的暴露性和脆弱性的总体指标

Table 2 Total indices of specialization, marginality and sensitivity of Rhodiola crenulata and R. chrysanthemifolia as well as total indices of exposure and vulnerability under different shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) scenarios

物种 Species	边缘性 Marginality	特化性 Specialization	敏感性 Sensitivity	暴露性 Exposure		脆弱性 Vulnerability
物种 Species	边缘性 Marginality	特化性 Specialization	敏感性 Sensitivity	SSP2-45	SSP5-85	SSP2-45	SSP5-85
大花红景天 R. crenulate	0.84	1.34	2.18	0.42	0.61	1.47	1.45
菊叶红景天 R. chrysanthemifolia	1.01	1.60	2.62	0.41	0.58	1.61	1.63

图2 青藏高原及其邻近地区2种红景天植物的敏感性。图中黑点代表2种红景天的样本记录点的分布, 图例上的红绿色分界点代表物种空间敏感性的中位数。

Fig. 2 Sensitivity of two Rhodiola species on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and its adjacent areas. The black dots in figures represent sample distributions of two Rhodiola species, the demarcation point between red and green in the legend represents the median spatial sensitivity of the species.

图3 未来气候变化情景下(“共享社会经济途径” SSP2-45)青藏高原及其邻近地区大花红景天(a)和菊叶红景天(b)的暴露性; 以及2种“共享社会经济途径” (SSPs)情景下(SSP2-45和SSP5-85)大花红景天(c)和菊叶红景天(d)的暴露性增量。图中黑点代表2种红景天的样本记录点的分布, (a)和(b)中图例上的红绿色分界点代表物种空间暴露性的中位数。

Fig. 3 Exposure of two Rhodiola species on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and its adjacent areas under future climate change (shared socioeconomic pathway, SSP2-45): (a) R. crenulata and (b) R. chrysanthemifolia; and the increment of exposure of two Rhodiola species under two SSPs scenarios (SSP2-45 and SSP5-85): (c) R. crenulata and (d) R. chrysanthemifolia. The black dots in figures represent sample distributions of two Rhodiola species. The demarcation point between red and green in the legend of (a) and (b) represent the median spatial exposure of the species.

图4 未来气候变化情景下(“共享社会经济途径” SSP2-45)青藏高原及其邻近地区的大花红景天(a)和菊叶红景天(b)的脆弱性; 以及2种“共享社会经济途径” (SSPs)情景下(SSP2-45和SSP5-85)大花红景天(c)和菊叶红景天(d)的脆弱性增量。图中黑点代表2种红景天的样本记录点的分布, (a)和(b)中图例上的红紫色分界点代表物种空间脆弱性的中位数。

Fig. 4 Vulnerability of two Rhodiola species on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and its adjacent areas under future climate change (shared socioeconomic pathway, SSP2-45): (a) R. crenulata and (b) R. chrysanthemifolia; and the increment of vulnerability of two Rhodiola species under two shared SSPs scenarios (SSP2-45 and SSP5-85): (c) R. crenulata and (d) R. chrysanthemifolia. The black dots in figures represent sample distributions of two Rhodiola species. The demarcation point between red and purple in the legend of (a) and (b) represent the median spatial vulnerability of the species.

图5 青藏高原及其邻近地区大花红景天和菊叶红景天的气候生态位比较。红色和绿色分别表示大花红景天和菊叶红景天的气候生态位; 蓝色表示2个物种气候生态位的重叠; 红线包围区域表示研究区的气候生态位。

Fig. 5 Comparison of the climatic niches of Rhodiola crenulata and R. chrysanthemifolia distribution on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and its adjacent areas. Red showing the climatic niches of R. crenulata and green showing the climatic niches of R. chrysanthemifolia; the overlap of the climatic niches between the two species showed in blue. The area enclosed by the red line indicates the climatic niche of the study area.

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