提高生态位模型转移能力来模拟入侵物种 的潜在分布

doi:10.3724/SP.J.1003.2014.08178

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

生态位模型利用物种分布点所关联的环境变量去推算物种的生态需求, 模拟物种的分布。在模拟入侵物种分布时, 经典生态位模型包括模型构建于物种本土分布地, 然后将其转移并投射至另一地理区域, 来模拟入侵物种的潜在分布。然而在模型运用时, 出现了模型的转移能力较低、模拟的结果与物种的实际分布不相符的情况, 由此得出了生态位漂移等不恰当的结论。提高生态位模型的转移能力, 可以准确地模拟入侵物种的潜在分布, 为入侵种的风险评估提供参考。作者以入侵种茶翅蝽(Halyomorpha halys)和互花米草(Spartina alterniflora)为例, 从模型的构建材料(即物种分布点和环境变量)入手, 全面阐述提高模型转移能力的策略。在构建模型之前, 需要充分了解入侵物种的生物学特性、种群平衡状态、本土地理分布范围及物种的生物历史地理等方面的知识。在模型构建环节上, 物种分布点不仅要充分覆盖物种的地理分布和生态空间的范围, 同时要降低物种采样点偏差; 环境变量的选择要充分考虑其对物种分布的限制作用、各环境变量之间的空间相关性, 以及不同地理种群间生态空间是否一致, 同时要降低环境变量的空间维度; 模型构建区域要真实地反映物种的地理分布范围, 并考虑种群的平衡状态。作者认为, 在生态位保守的前提下, 如果模型是构建在一个合理方案的基础上, 生态位模型的转移能力是可以保证的, 在以模型转移能力较低的现象来阐述生态位分化时需要引起注意。

关键词: 生物入侵, 生态位模型, 模型转移能力, 空间相关性, 生态位保守性

Abstract

Ecological niche modeling (ENM) seeks to characterize the ecological requirements of species using their occurrence in association with environmental variables. The classic applications of ENM to biological invasions involve the calibration of niche modeling in the native range and the subsequent transfer of the calibrated models to other regions to predict areas of potential invasion. However, low niche model transferability has been reported in certain cases, resulting in artifactual conclusions in some studies (e.g., niche shift during a species’ invasion). Improving niche model transferability would allow precise predictions of the invasion potential of species, providing valuable information for invasion risk assessment. In this review, we address model input data (i.e., occurrence records and environmental variables), using the invasive Halyomorpha halys and Spartina alterniflora, to explore protocols for improving niche model transferability. We conclude that the knowledge of the biology, population equilibrium state, geographic distribution, and biogeographic history of the invasive species is crucial prior to niche modeling. In niche model calibration, the sufficient records should not only cover the geographic extent and the ecological dimension of the species’ distribution but also reduce the sample bias and the effects of spatial autocorrelation. Selecting environmental variables should involve considerations of their biological importance in restricting the species’ distribution, the differences in occupied ecological space among geographic populations, and the dimensionality of the environmental space. Delimiting the geographic background for niche modeling should involve considerations of the species’ distributional range and population equilibrium state. We believe that, based on niche conservatism, niche model transferability can be guaranteed if niche models are built based on a reasonable approach. Caution is warranted in the case of interpretations of low niche model transferability in association with niche differentiation.

Key words: biological invasion, ecological niche modeling, transferability, spatial correlation, niche conservatism

朱耿平, 刘强, 高玉葆 (2014) 提高生态位模型转移能力来模拟入侵物种的潜在分布. 生物多样性, 22, 223-230. DOI: 10.3724/SP.J.1003.2014.08178.

Gengping Zhu,Qiang Liu,Yubao Gao (2014) Improving ecological niche model transferability to predict the potential distribution of invasive exotic species. Biodiversity Science, 22, 223-230. DOI: 10.3724/SP.J.1003.2014.08178.

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链接本文: https://www.biodiversity-science.net/CN/10.3724/SP.J.1003.2014.08178

https://www.biodiversity-science.net/CN/Y2014/V22/I2/223

图/表 3

图1 生态位模型与物种分布模型。生态位模型是指模型构建于物种的本土分布地(即①和②)后, 转移并投射至另一地理空间(即③)去判断物种潜在分布的能力。物种分布模型指在模型构建区域内, 对物种分布点及其周围区域的预测(即①和②, 虚线区域)。A区代表本土范围内适宜物种生存, 但是由于物种迁移能力有限而未被占领的区域; B区代表本土范围内适宜物种生存, 但是由于物种间的相互作用而未被占领的区域; C区代表入侵地适宜物种生存的区域; D代表现实生态位; E代表基础生态位。

Fig. 1 Exhibition of ecological niche modeling and species distribution modeling. Ecological niche model refers to niche model calibrated in native area (① and ②) and transferred into the introduced area (③), whereas species distribution model refers to niche model calibration without transferring across space (① and ②, dashed area). A, Native suitable area but not colonized due to dispersal limitation; B, Native suitable area but not colonized due to biotic interaction; C, Suitable area in introduced area; D, Realized niche; E, Fundamental niche.

图2 环境变量的维度对模型转移能力的影响(以茶翅蝽为例, 改自Zhu et al., 2012a)。模型构建于茶翅蝽本土分布范围后转移至美国。白色的物种分布点用于构建模型, 黑色的分布点用于校验模型, 颜色较深表明物种分布的可能性较大。左侧两个图采用10个环境变量(A), 右侧两个图采用6个环境变量(B)。当采用较少的环境变量时, 模型的转移能力可以明显提高。

Fig. 2 Effect of environmental space dimensionality on native model transferability (A case study of Halyomorpha halys, adopted from Zhu et al., 2012a). Niche models were constructed based on native range of H. halys and transferred into the US. White dots were used to fit niche model whereas black dots used to test model. Dark color represents high suitability, and light indicates low suitability. Left panel using 10 variables (A), and right panel using six variables (B). When using less environmental variables, niche model transferability was greatly improved.

图3 模型构建区域对模型转移能力的影响(以互花米草为例, 修改自Zhu et al., 2013a)。左图示本土范围内两种不同的模型构建区域: 一个是较大的方形区域(A), 另一个是较小的反映互花米草迁移能力的沿海区域(B)。右图是基于这两种区域的模型转移至入侵地的遗漏率, 其中基于沿海区域的模型遗漏率较小, 转移能力较强。

Fig. 3 Effect of geographic background space on the transferability of niche model: a case study of Spartina alterniflora (adopted from Zhu et al., 2013a). Left panel exhibited the squared (A) and coastal (B) areas used in native niche model calibration. Niche model based on the coastal areas showed high transferability in capturing the introduced records (right panel).

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