气候变化预计会减少东亚地区豚草的生物防治效果**

doi:10.17520/biods.2017096

生物多样性 ›› 2017, Vol. 25 ›› Issue (12): 1285-1294. DOI: 10.17520/biods.2017096

所属专题：生物入侵

气候变化预计会减少东亚地区豚草的生物防治效果^**

孙燕^1,^*(), 周忠实², 王瑞², HeinzMüller-Schärer³

1 .Plant Evolutionary Ecology, University of Tübingen, 72076 Tübingen, Germany;
2.中国农业科学院植物保护研究所, 植物病虫害生物学国家重点实验室, 北京 100193
3 .Department of Biology/Ecology & Evolution, University of Fribourg, 1700 Fribourg, Switzerland;

收稿日期:2017-03-24 接受日期:2017-06-10 出版日期:2017-12-20 发布日期:2017-12-10
通讯作者: 孙燕
基金资助:
The Advance Postdoc. Mobility fellowship from the Swiss National Science Foundation (SNSF: P300PA-161014 to YS). The Swiss State Secretariat for Education, Research, and Innovation (SERI: 13.0146 to HMS). The Swiss National Science Foundation (SNSF: 31003A_166448/1 to HMS) and the EU COST Action FA1203 ‘Sustainable management of Ambrosia artemisiifolia in Europe (SMA-RTER to HMS)’

Biological control opportunities of ragweed are predicted to decrease with climate change in East Asia

Yan Sun^1,^*(), Zhongshi Zhou², Rui Wang², Heinz Müller-Schärer³

1 Plant Evolutionary Ecology, University of Tübingen, 72076 Tübingen, Germany ;
2 State Key Laboratory for Biology of Plant Diseases and Insect Pests, Institute of Plant Protection, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100193, China
3 Department of Biology/ Ecology & Evolution, University of Fribourg, 1700 Fribourg, Switzerland;

Received:2017-03-24 Accepted:2017-06-10 Online:2017-12-20 Published:2017-12-10
Contact: Sun Yan

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

外来入侵植物对入侵地的生态系统与社会经济可造成严重的威胁。如何控制入侵植物对自然资源的危害, 向人类提出了极大的挑战。利用原产地的专食性天敌来控制入侵植物已被广泛证明是一种经济、可持续的生物防治手段。在全球气候变暖的背景下, 生物防治研究的关键问题是全面了解物种的潜在分布区和传播范围, 进而优化入侵植物的生物防治方案。本研究利用生物地理模型, 通过预测两种生物防治昆虫和它们的组合在东亚地区的适宜分布区, 预测豚草(Ambrosia artemisiifolia)的生物防治区域。豚草原产北美, 目前已经入侵全球多个国家和地区。20世纪末, 豚草条纹叶甲(Ophraella communa)和豚草卷蛾(Epiblema strenuana)作为豚草的生物防治昆虫从原产地引入到东亚地区。本研究旨在探讨如下问题: (1)在豚草的适宜生长分布区内, 有多少区域也同样适宜其两种天敌的生存?(2)在目前和未来的气候背景下, 有多少区域适宜豚草生长但是不适宜它的两种天敌生长?(3)在这些适宜豚草生长却不适宜两种昆虫天敌生长的区域内, 需要选择哪些特定的生物型进行投放?为此, 我们基于入侵植物和两种生物防治昆虫的全球分布记录及其分布点的重要生物气候因子, 同时模拟了入侵植物及其两种生物防治天敌在东亚地区的分布范围。排序技术被用来探索气候因子对每个物种的限制作用, 同时也用来检验豚草在北美和东亚地区的生态位重叠和相似性。结果表明, 在当前和未来的气候背景下, 相较于豚草卷蛾, 豚草条纹叶甲与豚草的地理分布范围更加吻合(当前气候: 40.3% vs. 21.6%, 未来气候: 29.8% vs. 20.3%)。气候变化可能会导致两种生物防治天敌(尤其是豚草条纹叶甲)的地理分布与豚草的地理分布的重叠区域减少(42.9% vs. 29.9%)。本研究同时提出了温度和降水等气候因子可用于为特殊区域(生物防治天敌未覆盖的豚草分布区)筛选生物防治天敌的相应株系。

关键词: 生物防治, 生物入侵, 豚草卷蛾, 生态位重叠, 豚草条纹叶甲, 物种分布

Abstract

The control of invasive alien plants (IAP) that jeopardize our ecosystems and economy constitutes a significant challenge for natural resource management. Classical biological control referring to the introduction of specialist antagonists from the native range has proven to be a highly cost-effective management tool against IAP. A critical issue in biological control research is to guide informed decision-making on the potential spread and distribution and thus impact of biological control candidates, especially under climate change. Here we propose a biogeographic modeling approach to predict the cover of the suitable area of a plant invader in East Asia (EA) by two biological control agents and their combinations. Our study system is Ambrosia artemisiifolia, native to North America and invasive worldwide, and two North American biological control agents, Ophraella communa and Epiblema strenuana that were accidentally and deliberately introduced into East Asia (EA) in the late 20th century, respectively. Specifically, we ask: (1) what percentage of the suitable A. artemisiifolia area is also suitable for the two agents in EA, and (2) which part of the suitable A. artemisiifolia area in EA is likely to remain uncovered by these two agents, both under current and future climatic scenarios; and (3) which particular biotypes would be needed to fill in the yet uncovered part of the suitable A. artemisiifolia range in East Asia? For this, we simultaneously modelled the species distributions based on worldwide occurrences and important bioclimatic variables for the target invasive plant and its two biological control agents. Ordination techniques were used to explore climatic constraints of each species and to perform niche overlap and similarity tests with A. artemisiifolia between its native North American and introduced EA range. Our results show that O. communa has a larger overlap with the geographic range of A. artemisiifolia than E. strenuana, both under current (40.3% vs. 21.6% for O. communa and E. strenuana, respectively) and future climatic scenarios (29.8% vs. 20.3% for O. communa and E. strenuana, respectively). Importantly, climate change is expected to reduce the total geographic overlap of A. artemisiifolia by the two agents combined (42.9% vs. 29.8% for current and future climate conditions, respectively), with a higher reduction by O. communa than by E. strenuana. Our analyses also identified for which abiotic conditions to select in order to develop climatically adapted strains for particular regions, where A. artemisiifolia is presently unlikely to be covered.

Key words: biological control, biological invasions, Epiblema strenuana, niche overlap, Ophraella communa, species distribution

孙燕, 周忠实, 王瑞, HeinzMüller-Schärer (2017) 气候变化预计会减少东亚地区豚草的生物防治效果^**. 生物多样性, 25, 1285-1294. DOI: 10.17520/biods.2017096.

Yan Sun, Zhongshi Zhou, Rui Wang, Heinz Müller-Schärer (2017) Biological control opportunities of ragweed are predicted to decrease with climate change in East Asia. Biodiversity Science, 25, 1285-1294. DOI: 10.17520/biods.2017096.

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链接本文: https://www.biodiversity-science.net/CN/10.17520/biods.2017096

https://www.biodiversity-science.net/CN/Y2017/V25/I12/1285

图/表 3

表1 4种模型预测的当前和未来气候情景下的AUC值, 显示可接受的AUC分数

Table 1 AUC power of all species using four models under current and future climate scenarios showing acceptable AUC scores

	Ambrosia artemisiifolia	Ophraella communa	Epiblema strenuana
当前气候背景 Current climate scenario
一般线性模型 GLM	0.88±0.002	0.88±0.004	0.84±0.01
广义助推模型 GBM	0.89±0.002	0.90±0.003	0.89±0.006
随机森林模型 RF	0.89±0.003	0.91±0.003	0.89±0.006
最大熵模型MaxEnt	0.87±0.003	0.83±0.004	0.83±0.009
未来气候背景: HD-26 Future climate scenario: HD-26
一般线性模型 GLM	0.87±0.003	0.87±0.002	0.83±0.01
广义助推模型 GBM	0.89±0.002	0.90±0.002	0.90±0.006
随机森林模型 RF	0.90±0.002	0.91±0.002	0.91±0.006
最大熵模型MaxEnt	0.86±0.003	0.83±0.003	0.80±0.01
未来气候背景: HD-85 Future climate scenario: HD-85
一般线性模型 GLM	0.88±0.003	0.88±0.002	0.84±0.008
广义助推模型 GBM	0.90±0.003	0.92±0.001	0.86±0.008
随机森林模型 RF	0.89±0.003	0.92±0.001	0.86±0.009
最大熵模型MaxEnt	0.88±0.003	0.84±0.003	0.78±0.01
未来气候背景: IP-26 Future climate scenario: IP-26
一般线性模型 GLM	0.89±0.003	0.87±0.002	0.87±0.01
广义助推模型 GBM	0.90±0.002	0.90±0.002	0.91±0.008
随机森林模型 RF	0.91±0.002	0.91±0.001	0.91±0.008
最大熵模型MaxEnt	0.89±0.003	0.85±0.002	0.82±0.009
未来气候背景: IP-85 Future climate scenario: IP-85
一般线性模型 GLM	0.87±0.003	0.87±0.002	0.88±0.008
广义助推模型 GBM	0.89±0.003	0.90±0.002	0.91±0.006
随机森林模型 RF	0.91±0.003	0.91±0.002	0.91±0.006
最大熵模型MaxEnt	0.87±0.003	0.84±0.003	0.88±0.008

图1 在当前和未来气候情景下, 东亚地区的豚草与其两种专食性天敌的地理分布预测。气候适宜度代表每个物种最佳适宜度阈值百分比。所有图中的深绿色代表的是豚草适宜分布区。在当前气候背景下: (A)红色为豚草条纹叶甲分布区, 褐色为豚草条纹叶甲与豚草适宜分布区的重叠区域, 占豚草适宜分布区的40.3%; (B)蓝色为豚草卷蛾分布区, 褐色为豚草卷蛾与豚草适宜分布区的重叠区域, 占豚草适宜分布区的21.6%。未来气候条件下: (C)红色为豚草条纹叶甲分布区, 褐色为豚草条纹叶甲与豚草适宜分布区的重叠区域, 占豚草适宜分布区的29.8%; (D)蓝色为豚草卷蛾分布区, 褐色为豚草卷蛾与豚草适宜分布区的重叠区域, 占豚草适宜分布区的20.3%。模型的模拟是基于东亚地区进行的。

Fig. 1 Geographical predictions of Ambrosia artemisiifolia and two biological control insects for East Asia, under present and future climatic scenarios. The climatic suitability indicates the optimal threshold of the percentage of models predicting each species. Dark green in all figures, A. artemisiifolia; under current climatic conditions: (A) Red, Ophraella communa; sienna, overlap 40.3%; (B) Blue, Epiblema strenuana; sienna, overlap 21.6%; under future climatic scenarios: (C) Red, Ophraella communa; sienna, overlap 29.8%; (D) Blue, Epiblema strenuana; sienna, overlap 20.3%. Models calibrated in East Asia only.

图2 对豚草生态位在气候空间的主成分分析结果。A图和B图分别代表豚草在原产地北美和入侵地东亚地区的生态位, 沿主成分1和主成分2的坐标图。灰色阴影显示物种在网格上分布记录的密度。实线的轮廓线表明100%的背景环境, 虚线轮廓表明最常见的50%的背景环境。A图和B图中的黄色圆圈分别代表北美和东亚地区两种天敌的分布记录。C图表示的是气候变量对主成分的两个坐标轴的贡献值并给出两个坐标轴解释变量的百分比。D-F的柱形图表示北美和东亚两个区域内观察到的生态位重叠(线条和菱形)。(D)东亚和北美地区生态位等价性检验; (E)东亚到北美地区的生态位相似性; (F)北美到东亚的生态位相似性。

Fig. 2 Niche of Ambrosia artemisiifolia in climatic space using principal component analysis (PCA-env). Panels (A) and (B) represent the niche of the species along the two first axes of the PCA for the native North American (NA) and introduced East Asian (EA) range, respectively. Gray shading shows the density of the occurrences of the species by the cell. The solid contour lines illustrate 100% of the available environment, and dashed lines indicate the 50% of the most common background environment. Yellow circles in (A) and (B) give the occurrences of two insect species in NA and in EA. The contribution of the climatic variables of the two axes of the PCA and the percentage of inertia explained by the two axes is given in (C). Histograms (D-F) show the observed niche overlap between the two ranges (bars and a diamond) and simulated niche overlaps (gray bars) on which tests of niche equivalency (D), niche similarity of EA and NA (E), and niche similarity of NA and EA (F) are calculated from 100 iterations, with the significance level of the tests.

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气候变化预计会减少东亚地区豚草的生物防治效果^**

Biological control opportunities of ragweed are predicted to decrease with climate change in East Asia

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