四川邛崃山脉雪豹与散放牦牛潜在分布重叠与捕食风险评估

doi:10.17520/biods.2019062

摘要/Abstract

由雪豹(Panthera uncia)捕食散放家畜引起的人兽冲突是目前中国雪豹保护面临的主要挑战之一。四川邛崃山脉地处雪豹分布范围的东南缘, 本研究以邛崃山中部的自然保护区群为研究区, 收集了2014-2018年红外相机调查和动物粪便DNA分析中采集到的雪豹与散放牦牛的分布位点, 使用MaxEnt物种分布模型预测两物种在研究区内的潜在分布范围, 以两物种分布重叠的程度作为评估雪豹捕食家畜潜在风险的指标, 从而识别雪豹-家畜冲突的高危区域。结果表明, 在邛崃山中部的保护区群中, 模型预测的雪豹适宜栖息地面积为871.14 km ², 牦牛适宜栖息地面积为988.41 km ², 二者重叠面积达534.47 km ², 主要分布在研究区西部的高山草甸地区, 占域内雪豹适宜栖息地总面积的61.35%。研究区域内总体上可能存在较高的雪豹-家畜冲突风险。在这些自然保护区以及新建的大熊猫国家公园的管理规划中, 应把高山放牧作为对区内野生雪豹种群的关键威胁之一, 重点关注模型预测的人兽冲突高危区域, 通过改变社区牧业管理方式、发展社区替代生计等方式, 降低潜在冲突的风险。

关键词: 人兽冲突, 放牧管理, 保护地管理, 物种分布模型, 红外相机, 保护地网络

Human-wildlife conflict (HWC) related to livestock predation is one of the main challenges for snow leopard conservation in China. The Qionglai Mountains are located on the southeastern edge of the snow leopard’s range, and we used the nature reserve network which transects the central Qionglai Mountains as our study area. We collected occurrence data for snow leopards and free-range yaks from camera-trapping surveys and animal fecal DNA analysis from 2014 to 2018 and then predicted the distribution of each species using species distribution models (MaxEnt). We mapped the overlapping patches of suitable habitats between snow leopards and yaks and used the extent of habitat overlapping as the indicator of potential predation risk. The results showed that, across the seven nature reserves, the predicted suitable habitat for snow leopards and yaks is 871.14 km ² and 988.41 km ², respectively. The overlapping habitat between the two species is 534.47 km ², primarily distributed in the alpine meadow area in the western part of the study area, accounting for 61.35% of snow leopard’s suitable habitat. We suggest that, when developing the management plans of these nature reserves and the newly established Giant Panda National Park, managers should consider alpine grazing a key threat to wild snow leopards and give high priority to the management of high-risk areas identified in this study. Immediate actions are needed to reduce the risk of potential HWC through interdisciplinary approaches such as grazing control and alternative livelihoods in local communities.

Key words: human-wildlife conflict, grazing management, protected area management, species distribution models, camera-trapping, protected area network

史晓昀, 施小刚, 胡强, 官天培, 付强, 张剑, 姚蒙, 李晟 (2019) 四川邛崃山脉雪豹与散放牦牛潜在分布重叠与捕食风险评估. 生物多样性, 27(9), 951-959.

Xiaoyun Shi, Xiaogang Shi, Qiang Hu, Tianpei Guan, Qiang Fu, Jian Zhang, Meng Yao, Sheng Li. Evaluating the potential habitat overlap and predation risk between snow leopards and free-range yaks in the Qionglai Mountains, Sichuan. (2019) Biodiv Sci, 27(9), 951-959.

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环境变量 Environmental variables	分类与赋值 Classification and assignment	原始分辨率 Original resolution	来源 Source
地形 Topography
海拔 Elevation	连续变量 Continuous variable	30 m	中国科学院计算机网络信息中心地理空间数据云平台 Geospatial Data Cloud
坡度 Slope	0°-5° (1); 5°-10° (2); 10°-20° (3); 20°-30° (4); > 30° (5)	30 m	中国科学院计算机网络信息中心地理空间数据云平台 Geospatial Data Cloud
气候 Climate
月均昼夜温差 Mean diurnal range (bio2)	连续变量 Continuous variable	30″	WorldClim
温度季节性 Temperature seasonality (bio4)	连续变量 Continuous variable
最暖月最高温 Max. temperature of the warmest month (bio5)	连续变量 Continuous variable
年温差 Temperature annual range (bio7)	连续变量 Continuous variable
最干月降水量 Precipitation of the driest month (bio14)	连续变量 Continuous variable
植被 Vegetation
归一化植被指数 Normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI)	连续变量 Continuous variable	250 m	Land Processes Distributed Active Archive Center
地被类型 Land cover	针叶林 Coniferous forest (1) 阔叶林 Broad-leaved forest (2) 灌丛 Shrub (3) 草地 Grassland (4) 裸岩 Bare rock (5) 其他 Others (6)	500 m	Land Processes Distributed Active Archive Center

自然保护区 Nature reserve	总面积 Area (km²)	雪豹适宜栖息地面积 Suitable habitat area of snow leopard (km²)	牦牛适宜栖息地面积 Suitable habitat area of yak (km²)	重叠区域面积 Area of overlapping habitats (km²)
鞍子河 Anzihe	101	6.52	0.76	0.75
蜂桶寨 Fengtongzhai	390	52.31	49.91	41.90
黑水河 Heishuihe	318	51.51	31.11	29.55
米亚罗 Miyaluo	1,607	31.57	182.97	20.49
四姑娘山 Siguniangshan	591	138.11	215.26	90.96
草坡 Caopo	556	57.42	82.53	35.71
卧龙 Wolong	2,000	533.70	425.86	315.11
合计 Total	5,563	871.14	988.41	534.47

景观指数 Landscape index		雪豹 Snow leopard	牦牛 Yak	分布重叠区 Overlapping patches
破碎度 Fragmentation	斑块数 Number of patches	524	1,307	653
	斑块密度 Patch density (ind./km²)	0.60	1.32	1.22
	平均斑块面积 Mean patch size (km²)	1.65	0.76	0.82
	最大斑块指数 Largest patch index (%)	33.07	7.33	11.43
连通度 Connectivity	斑块结合度指数 Patch cohesion index	95.75	87.68	89.04
	分割指数 Segmentation index	0.86	0.98	0.97
	分离度指数 Separation index	7.31	50.73	32.79
	景观蔓延度指数 Contagion index	75.59	68.47	68.85
人类干扰程度 Human disturbance	边缘面积分维度 Perimeter area fractal dimension	1.37	1.43	1.39

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