基于MaxEnt模型预测海南岛重点管理外来入侵植物适生区及其入侵风险

doi:10.17520/biods.2025037

生物多样性 ›› 2025, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (8): 25037. DOI: 10.17520/biods.2025037 cstr: 32101.14.biods.2025037

• 研究报告: 植物多样性 • 上一篇下一篇

基于MaxEnt模型预测海南岛重点管理外来入侵植物适生区及其入侵风险

吉晟男¹^,², 韩佳蓉³, 任月恒¹, 穆晓东², 朱彦鹏¹^,^*()

¹ 中国环境科学研究院环境基准标准与风险管控全国重点实验室, 北京 100012
² 海南省环境科学研究院, 海口 570102
³ 首都师范大学生命科学学院, 北京 100048

收稿日期:2025-01-24 接受日期:2025-04-12 出版日期:2025-08-20 发布日期:2025-09-17
通讯作者: *E-mail: zhuyp@craes.org.cn
基金资助:
生态环境部2024部门预算项目

Prediction of suitable habitats and risk assessment for key invasive alien plant species on Hainan Island based on the MaxEnt model

Shengnan Ji¹^,², Jiarong Han³, Yueheng Ren¹, Xiaodong Mu², Yanpeng Zhu¹^,^*()

¹ State Key Laboratory of Environmental Criteria and Risk Assessment, Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences, Beijing 100012, China
² Hainan Research Academy of Environmental Sciences, Haikou 570102, China
³ College of Life Sciences, Capital Normal University, Beijing 100048, China

Received:2025-01-24 Accepted:2025-04-12 Online:2025-08-20 Published:2025-09-17
Contact: *E-mail: zhuyp@craes.org.cn
Supported by:
2024 Budget Project of the Ministry of Ecology and Environment

1. 附录.pdf(457KB)

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

外来入侵植物对生态系统、生物多样性和人类社会构成了严重威胁。海南岛作为我国生物多样性最丰富的地区之一, 面临着外来入侵植物的潜在危害。为评估重点管理外来入侵物种在海南岛的潜在适生区及其入侵风险, 本研究基于农业农村部等六部委最新发布的《重点管理外来入侵物种名录》中的33种入侵植物, 利用最大熵(MaxEnt)模型与地理信息系统(GIS)技术, 对物种分布数据和环境因子进行了综合分析。结果显示, 共有25种入侵植物在海南岛具有不同程度的适生区, 其中假高粱(Sorghum halepense)、飞机草(Chromolaena odorata)、刺苋(Amaranthus spinosus)和马缨丹(Lantana camara) 4个物种的适生区面积均占海南岛总面积的50%以上, 风险等级最高。入侵热点主要集中在海南岛东北部低海拔平原和部分沿海区域, 人类活动强度、温度季节性、平均昼夜温差和最暖季降水量是影响其分布的主要因素。结合结果分析, 本研究建议加强对高风险区域和高风险物种的精准监测和综合防控, 同时将社会环境因素及生物互作机制纳入后续研究, 以进一步提升对外来入侵植物的预警能力并制定科学高效的防控策略。

关键词: 海南岛, 外来入侵植物, 最大熵模型, 潜在适生区, 风险分析

Abstract

Aims: Invasive alien plants (IAPs) pose serious threats to ecosystems, biodiversity, and human well-being. Hainan Island, as one of China’s most biodiverse regions, confronts mounting risks of invasion by alien plant species. This study targeted 33 invasive species identified in the newly released Key Management List of Invasive Alien Species (issued jointly by six ministries and commissions, including the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs), aiming to evaluate their potential suitable habitats and invasion risks on Hainan Island.

Method: We first aggregated occurrence records and environmental variables from multiple databases for the 33 listed invasive plant species. Using the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model in conjunction with geographic information system (GIS) techniques, we modeled each species’ potential spatial distribution under current climatic conditions. Subsequently, we overlaid species-specific distribution maps to identify invasion hot spots and assessed the relative importance of environmental factors contributing to habitat suitability.

Results: Among the 33 investigated species, 25 were predicted to possess suitable habitats on Hainan Island, which varied in geographical extent. Notably, four species—Sorghum halepense, Chromolaena odorata, Amaranthus spinosus, and Lantana camara—exhibited high-risk distributions covering more than 50% of the island’s total land area. Invasion hot spots were concentrated primarily in low-elevation plains in the northeastern region and several coastal zones. Key environmental drivers included human activity intensity, temperature seasonality, mean diurnal temperature range, and precipitation of warmest quarter. These findings reflected the urgent need for comprehensive prevention and control measures, particularly in vulnerable areas.

Conclusion: Our results underscore the importance of prioritizing high-risk species and high-risk regions for targeted monitoring and integrated management on Hainan Island. Effective strategies should include not only conventional control approaches but also incorporate socio-environmental factors and biotic interaction mechanisms in subsequent research. By enhancing early warning systems and applying science-based interventions, stakeholders can better curb the spread of invasive alien plants and safeguard the island’s rich biodiversity.

Key words: Hainan Island, invasive alien plants, MaxEnt model, potential suitable habitat, risk analysis

吉晟男, 韩佳蓉, 任月恒, 穆晓东, 朱彦鹏 (2025) 基于MaxEnt模型预测海南岛重点管理外来入侵植物适生区及其入侵风险. 生物多样性, 33, 25037. DOI: 10.17520/biods.2025037.

Shengnan Ji, Jiarong Han, Yueheng Ren, Xiaodong Mu, Yanpeng Zhu (2025) Prediction of suitable habitats and risk assessment for key invasive alien plant species on Hainan Island based on the MaxEnt model. Biodiversity Science, 33, 25037. DOI: 10.17520/biods.2025037.

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链接本文: https://www.biodiversity-science.net/CN/10.17520/biods.2025037

https://www.biodiversity-science.net/CN/Y2025/V33/I8/25037

图/表 4

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风险等级 Risk level	物种 Species	分布点数 Distribution point	海南岛适生面积比例 Suitability area ratio on Hainan Island (AR)
高风险 High-risk (0.5 ≤ AR < 1.0)	假高粱 Sorghum halepense	244	0.8641
	飞机草 Chromolaena odorata	2,005	0.7521
	刺苋 Amaranthus spinosus	789	0.5449
	马缨丹 Lantana camara	3,874	0.5394
中风险 Middle-risk (0.3 ≤ AR < 0.5)	银胶菊 Parthenium hysterophorus	1,370	0.4846
	藿香蓟 Ageratum conyzoides	44	0.4482
	五爪金龙 Ipomoea cairica	4,071	0.4230
	凤眼蓝 Eichhornia crassipes	995	0.4044
	假臭草 Praxelis clematidea	1,167	0.3137
低风险 Low-risk (0.1 ≤ AR < 0.3)	大薸 Pistia stratiotes	715	0.2981
低风险 Low-risk (0.1 ≤ AR < 0.3)	小蓬草 Erigeron canadensis	1,315	0.1734
极低风险 Minimal-risk (0 ≤ AR < 0.1)	三叶鬼针草 Bidens pilosa	6,145	0.0739
	空心莲子草 Alternanthera philoxeroides	1,370	0.0647
	紫茎泽兰 Ageratina adenophora	68	0.0615
	光荚含羞草 Mimosa bimucronata	52	0.0486
	毒莴苣 Lactuca serriola	25	0.0294
	垂序商陆 Phytolacca americana	1,051	0.0276
	薇甘菊 Mikania micrantha	4,726	0.0178
	互花米草 Spartina alterniflora	47	0.0076
	野燕麦 Avena fatua	176	0.0039
	落葵薯 Anredera cordifolia	1,176	0.0018
	苏门白酒草 Erigeron sumatrensis	2,882	0.0008
	水盾草 Cabomba caroliniana	23	0.0000
	加拿大一枝黄花 Solidago canadensis	149	0.0000
	豚草 Ambrosia artemisiifolia	137	0.0000

风险等级 Risk level	物种 Species	分布点数 Distribution point	海南岛适生面积比例 Suitability area ratio on Hainan Island (AR)
高风险 High-risk (0.5 ≤ AR < 1.0)	假高粱 Sorghum halepense	244	0.8641
	飞机草 Chromolaena odorata	2,005	0.7521
	刺苋 Amaranthus spinosus	789	0.5449
	马缨丹 Lantana camara	3,874	0.5394
中风险 Middle-risk (0.3 ≤ AR < 0.5)	银胶菊 Parthenium hysterophorus	1,370	0.4846
	藿香蓟 Ageratum conyzoides	44	0.4482
	五爪金龙 Ipomoea cairica	4,071	0.4230
	凤眼蓝 Eichhornia crassipes	995	0.4044
	假臭草 Praxelis clematidea	1,167	0.3137
低风险 Low-risk (0.1 ≤ AR < 0.3)	大薸 Pistia stratiotes	715	0.2981
低风险 Low-risk (0.1 ≤ AR < 0.3)	小蓬草 Erigeron canadensis	1,315	0.1734
极低风险 Minimal-risk (0 ≤ AR < 0.1)	三叶鬼针草 Bidens pilosa	6,145	0.0739
	空心莲子草 Alternanthera philoxeroides	1,370	0.0647
	紫茎泽兰 Ageratina adenophora	68	0.0615
	光荚含羞草 Mimosa bimucronata	52	0.0486
	毒莴苣 Lactuca serriola	25	0.0294
	垂序商陆 Phytolacca americana	1,051	0.0276
	薇甘菊 Mikania micrantha	4,726	0.0178
	互花米草 Spartina alterniflora	47	0.0076
	野燕麦 Avena fatua	176	0.0039
	落葵薯 Anredera cordifolia	1,176	0.0018
	苏门白酒草 Erigeron sumatrensis	2,882	0.0008
	水盾草 Cabomba caroliniana	23	0.0000
	加拿大一枝黄花 Solidago canadensis	149	0.0000
	豚草 Ambrosia artemisiifolia	137	0.0000

基于MaxEnt模型预测海南岛重点管理外来入侵植物适生区及其入侵风险

Prediction of suitable habitats and risk assessment for key invasive alien plant species on Hainan Island based on the MaxEnt model

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