关键词: 海南岛, 外来入侵植物, 最大熵模型(MaxEnt), 潜在适生区, 风险分析

Abstract

Aims: Invasive alien plants (IAPs) pose serious threats to ecosystems, biodiversity, and human well-being. Hainan Island, as one of China’s most biodiverse regions, confronts mounting risks of invasion by alien plant species. This study targeted 33 invasive species identified in the newly released Key Management List of Invasive Alien Species (issued jointly by six ministries and commissions, including the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs), aiming to evaluate their potential suitable habitats and invasion risks on Hainan Island. 

Method: We first aggregated occurrence records and environmental variables from multiple databases for the 33 listed invasive plant species. Using the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model in conjunction with Geographic Information System (GIS) techniques, we modeled each species’ potential spatial distribution under current climatic conditions. Subsequently, we overlaid species-specific distribution maps to identify invasion hotspots and assessed the relative importance of environmental factors contributing to habitat suitability. 

Results: Among the 33 investigated species, 25 were predicted to possess suitable habitats on Hainan Island, which varied in geographical extent. Notably, four species—Sorghum halepense, Chromolaena odorata, Amaranthus spinosus, and Lantana camara—exhibited high-risk distributions covering more than 50% of the island’s total land area. Invasion hotspots were concentrated primarily in low-elevation plains in the northeastern region and several coastal zones. Key environmental drivers included human activity intensity, temperature seasonality, mean diurnal temperature range, and precipitation of the warmest quarter. These findings reflect the urgent need for comprehensive prevention and control measures, particularly in vulnerable areas. 

Conclusion: Our results underscore the importance of prioritizing high-risk species and high-risk regions for targeted monitoring and integrated management on Hainan Island. Effective strategies should include not only conventional control approaches but also incorporate socio-environmental factors and biotic interaction mechanisms in subsequent research. By enhancing early warning systems and applying science-based interventions, stakeholders can better curb the spread of invasive alien plants and safeguard the island’s rich biodiversity.

Key words: Hainan Island, invasive alien plants, MaxEnt model, potential suitable habitat, risk analysis