中国-喜马拉雅三种黄耆属植物与其传粉熊蜂的空间分布预测

doi:10.17520/biods.2020268

生物多样性 ›› 2021, Vol. 29 ›› Issue (6): 759-769.DOI: 10.17520/biods.2020268

中国-喜马拉雅三种黄耆属植物与其传粉熊蜂的空间分布预测

施雨含¹^,², 任宗昕¹, 王维嘉¹^,², 徐鑫¹^,², 刘杰¹, 赵延会¹, 王红¹^,^*()

1.中国科学院昆明植物研究所东亚植物多样性与生物地理学重点实验室, 昆明 650201
2.中国科学院大学, 北京 100049

收稿日期:2020-07-03 接受日期:2020-08-26 出版日期:2021-06-20 发布日期:2020-09-20
通讯作者: 王红
作者简介:* E-mail: wanghong@mail.kib.ac.cn
基金资助:
中国科学院先导专项B项目(XDB31000000);国家自然科学基金-云南省联合重点基金(U1502261)

Predicting the spatial distribution of three Astragalusspecies and their pollinating bumblebees in the Sino-Himalayas

Yuhan Shi¹^,², Zongxin Ren¹, Weijia Wang¹^,², Xin Xu¹^,², Jie Liu¹, Yanhui Zhao¹, Hong Wang¹^,^*()

1 CAS Key Laboratory for Plant Diversity and Biogeography of East Asia, Kunming Institute of Botany, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Kunming 650201
2 University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049

Received:2020-07-03 Accepted:2020-08-26 Online:2021-06-20 Published:2020-09-20
Contact: Hong Wang

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

依赖于动物传粉获得繁殖成功的植物的分布与其传粉动物的地理分布有着密切联系。预测未来气候变化对植物及其传粉动物地理分布的影响对生物多样性保护具有重要意义。本文通过对中国-喜马拉雅3种黄耆属(Astragalus)植物, 即弯齿黄耆(A. camptodontus)、黑毛黄耆(A. pullus)和笔直黄耆(A. strictus), 及其传粉熊蜂(Bombus)的野外调查, 以及收集来源于数据库的黄耆和熊蜂的543个物种分布点和13个环境因子数据, 结合物种可能出现的完全扩散、不扩散和仅熊蜂扩散3种迁移模式, 利用MaxEnt模型模拟了3种黄耆属植物与2种传粉熊蜂即橘尾熊蜂(Bombus friseanus)和红束熊蜂(B. rufofasciatus)在历史阶段(1970-2000年)和2100年两种温室气体浓度情景(ssp245和ssp585)下的适宜分布区变化。结果表明: 3种黄耆属植物均主要依赖于熊蜂传粉, 黄耆与其传粉熊蜂的主要适宜分布区为中国-喜马拉雅地区, 到2100年它们的分布区呈现向西北方向扩张的趋势, 而在东南部的分布区减少。当模型中考虑与传粉熊蜂的互作后, 3种黄耆属植物的潜在地理分布范围减少了15.83%-83.98%。在温室气体中低浓度情景(ssp245)下, 3种黄耆属植物与其传粉熊蜂的空间匹配增加, 而在高浓度情景(ssp585)下弯齿黄耆、黑毛黄耆与橘尾熊蜂的空间匹配降低; 如果物种不扩散或仅熊蜂扩散, 笔直黄耆与红束熊蜂的空间匹配降低。气候变化和物种的扩散能力可能引起黄耆与其传粉熊蜂出现空间不匹配。同时, 模型预测显示影响黄耆和熊蜂分布的环境因子不同, 但海拔是最主要的环境因子。由于与传粉者的相互作用对许多植物物种的生命周期具有重要意义, 因而本研究可以更好地理解气候变化对植物与其传粉者空间分布的潜在影响, 特别是对那些地理范围受限制的植物。

关键词: 黄耆属, 传粉熊蜂, 空间分布, 气候变化, 最大熵模型, 环境因子

Abstract

Aims: The spatial distribution for plant species that rely on animal pollination for reproduction is influenced by the geographical distribution of their pollinators. Predicting the impact that future climate change will have on the geographical distribution of plants and their pollinators is significantly important for the conservation of biodiversity.

Methods: In this study, we conducted a field investigation to map out the distribution for three Astragalus species (A. camptodontus, A. pullus, andA. strictus) and their dominant pollinating bumblebees (Bombus). We collected 543 species distribution points for Astragalusand Bombusas well as 13 environmental factors from online database. Using the MaxEnt, we simulated suitable distribution changes for the three Astragalus species and two species of bumblebees (B. friseanusandB. rufofasciatus) under two climate change scenarios for 2100 (ssp245 and ssp585). We also combined with three possible migration situations into the models, i.e. full dispersal, no dispersal and only Bombus dispersal.

Results: We found that three Astragalusspecies are mainly pollinated by bumblebees and the most suitable distribution for Astragalus and Bombusis the Sino-Himalayas. It is predicted that by 2100, their suitable distribution will expand northwest, while distribution areas in the southeast will decrease. When the plant-pollinator interaction was included in the models, potential range size of the three Astragalusspecies was reduced by 15.83%-83.98%. Under low-emissions scenario (ssp245), the spatial match of three Astragalus species and their pollinating bumblebees is predicted to increase. However, under a high-emissions scenario (ssp585) the spatial match of A. camptodontus, A. pullusand their dominated pollinators B. friseanusis predicted to decrease. If species lack full dispersal ability or only Bombus disperse, the spatial match of A. strictusand its dominated pollinators B. rufofasciatusis predicted to decrease. Climate change and species dispersal ability may cause spatial mismatch between the Astragalusand their pollinating bumblebees. Our simulation shows that the environmental factors affecting the distribution of Astragalus and Bombus are different, but elevation is the most important factor.

Conclusion: Given the importance of pollinators for the life cycle of many plant species, our study could be used to better understand the potential effects of climate change on the spatial distribution of plants and their pollinators, particularly on species that with limited geographical range.

Key words: Astragalus, pollinating bumblebees, spatial distribution, climate change, MaxEnt model, environmental factors

施雨含, 任宗昕, 王维嘉, 徐鑫, 刘杰, 赵延会, 王红 (2021) 中国-喜马拉雅三种黄耆属植物与其传粉熊蜂的空间分布预测. 生物多样性, 29, 759-769. DOI: 10.17520/biods.2020268.

Yuhan Shi, Zongxin Ren, Weijia Wang, Xin Xu, Jie Liu, Yanhui Zhao, Hong Wang (2021) Predicting the spatial distribution of three Astragalusspecies and their pollinating bumblebees in the Sino-Himalayas. Biodiversity Science, 29, 759-769. DOI: 10.17520/biods.2020268.

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链接本文: https://www.biodiversity-science.net/CN/10.17520/biods.2020268

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图/表 7

图1 3种黄耆属植物与其传粉熊蜂的地理分布点

Fig. 1 Occurrence points of three Astragalusspecies and their pollinating bumblebees

表1 MaxEnt模型结果的受试者工作特征曲线下面积AUC值、真实技巧统计值TSS值和cloglog阈值(TH)

Table1 Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), true skill statistic (TSS) and cloglog threshold (TH) of MaxEnt

物种 Species	AUC ± SD	TSS ± SD	阈值 Cloglog threshold (TH ± SD)
弯齿黄耆 Astragalus camptodontus	0.996 ± 0.001	0.93 ± 0.02	0.37 ± 0.16
黑毛黄耆 Astragalus pullus	0.992 ± 0.001	0.91 ± 0.02	0.33 ± 0.11
笔直黄耆 Astragalus strictus	0.960 ± 0.003	0.85 ± 0.01	0.34 ± 0.03
橘尾熊蜂 Bombus friseanus	0.991 ± 0.001	0.88 ± 0.01	0.39 ± 0.07
红束熊蜂 Bombus rufofasciatus	0.985 ± 0.002	0.87 ± 0.01	0.32 ± 0.06

图2 3种黄耆属植物与其传粉熊蜂在历史阶段(1970-2000年)的适宜分布区和在2100 (2081-2100年)两种情景(ssp245和ssp585)下的分布变化

Fig. 2 Suitable distribution of three Astragalus species and their pollinating bumblebees at near current (1970-2000) and spatial change at 2100 (2081-2100) two scenarios (ssp245 and ssp585)

图3 3种黄耆属植物与其传粉熊蜂在历史阶段(1970-2000年)和在2100 (2081-2100年)两种情景(ssp245和ssp585)下的空间匹配变化。图中黑色部分表示在黄耆分布的区域其传粉者也存在的区域, 灰色部分表示仅黄耆分布的区域。

Fig. 3 Change of spatial match of three Astragalusspecies and their pollinating bumblebees at near current (1970-2000) and at 2100 (2081-2100) two scenarios (ssp245 and ssp585). The black part indicates the area where the pollinator also exists in the plant distributions and the grey part indicates the area where only plants are distributed.

表2 在未来气候变化情景下3种黄耆属植物与其传粉熊蜂的空间匹配范围(SMR)变化百分比。第一列值表示在历史气候情景下(1970-2000年) 3种黄耆属植物与其传粉熊蜂的SMR。

Table 2 Percentage change in spatially matched range of three Astragalusspecies and their pollinating bumblebees in the future climate change scenario. First column values indicate the spatially matched range of three Astragalus species and their pollinating bumblebees at near current (1970-2000).

物种 Species (Astragalus × pollinators)	空间匹配范围SMR (×10⁵km²)	SMR变化百分比 Percentage change in spatially matched range (%)
	空间匹配范围SMR (×10⁵km²)	完全扩散 Full dispersal		不扩散 No dispersal		仅熊蜂扩散 OnlyBombusdispersal
	历史阶段 Near current	ssp245	ssp585	ssp245	ssp585	ssp245	ssp585
弯齿黄耆 ×橘尾熊蜂 Astragalus camptodontus ×Bombus friseanus	1.92	74.61	114.70	-12.09	-25.94	-11.53	-24.56
黑毛黄耆 ×橘尾熊蜂 Astragalus pullus × Bombus friseanus	2.96	29.70	65.46	-7.69	-0.99	4.81	5.22
笔直黄耆 ×橘尾熊蜂 Astragalus strictus × Bombus friseanus	3.28	32.98	53.50	-1.07	-3.77	225.57	294.51
笔直黄耆 ×红束熊蜂 Astragalus strictus × Bombus rufofasciatus	6.65	63.91	112.18	-7.82	-8.32	-35.54	-25.80

表3 在未来气候变化情景下3种黄耆属植物与其传粉熊蜂的空间匹配变化百分比。第一列值表示在历史气候情景下(1970-2000年)与其传粉熊蜂共同分布的黄耆属植物的范围所占的百分比, 即空间匹配(%)。

Table 3 Percentage change in spatial match of three Astragalusspecies and their pollinating bumblebees in the future climate change scenario. First column values indicate the percentage of the range of each Astragalus species that is shared with its pollinating bumblebees at near current (1970-2000), that is spatial match (%).

物种 Species (Astragalus × pollinators)	空间匹配 Spatial match (%)	空间匹配变化百分比 Percentage change in spatial match (%)
	空间匹配 Spatial match (%)	完全扩散 Full dispersal		不扩散 No dispersal		仅熊蜂扩散 OnlyBombusdispersal
	历史阶段 Near current	ssp245	ssp585	ssp245	ssp585	ssp245	ssp585
弯齿黄耆 ×橘尾熊蜂 Astragalus camptodontus × Bombus friseanus	78.76	6.93	-0.03	4.52	8.26	5.19	10.27
黑毛黄耆 ×橘尾熊蜂 Astragalus pullus × Bombus friseanus	57.22	13.28	-11.79	8.44	6.03	23.12	23.82
笔直黄耆 ×橘尾熊蜂 Astragalus strictus × Bombus friseanus	16.03	0.47	0.55	3.13	-1.94	239.36	301.99
笔直黄耆 ×红束熊蜂 Astragalus strictus × Bombus rufofasciatus	32.51	23.83	45.80	-7.82	-30.74	-32.81	-24.39

图4 3种黄耆属植物在历史阶段(1970-2000年)和在2100 (2081-2100年)两种情景(ssp245和ssp585)下的地理范围及考虑传粉熊蜂时的地理范围(×105 km2)。

Fig. 4 Range size (×105 km2) of three Astragalusspecies and considering the geographical distribution of pollinating bumblebees at near current (1970-2000) and at 2100 (2081-2100) two scenarios (ssp245 and ssp585).

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中国-喜马拉雅三种黄耆属植物与其传粉熊蜂的空间分布预测

Predicting the spatial distribution of three Astragalusspecies and their pollinating bumblebees in the Sino-Himalayas

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