关键词: Biomod2模型, 生物入侵, 铺散矢车菊, 气候变化, 潜在适生区

Abstract

Aims: Centaurea diffusa, an invasive alien weed characterized by broad ecological adaptability and high reproductive capacity, poses a significant threat to native ecosystems and has been listed as a quarantine pest in China. This study aims to delineate its potentially suitable habitats and spatial dynamics across China under global climate change, thereby providing a theoretical basis for early warning and precise control. 

Methods: A total of 815 valid global occurrence records of C. diffusa and 10 key environmental variables were compiled. An ensemble species distribution model was constructed using the Biomod2 package to simulate its potential suitability under current and projected future climate scenarios. Spatiotemporal shifts of the suitable habitat centroids were also quantified. 

Results: The ensemble model exhibited excellent predictive performance (AUC = 0.916). Under current climatic conditions, the total potentially suitable area for C. diffusa in China is estimated at 4.996 × 10⁶ km² (covering approximately 52.04% of the national territory), with highly suitable areas primarily concentrated in Xinjiang, Gansu, Shaanxi, and Henan provinces. The spatial distribution is predominantly driven by the mean temperature of coldest quarter (Bio11), human footprint index (Hfp), and annual mean temperature (Bio1). Under future climate scenarios, the total suitable area will remain extensive, while the highly suitable areas are projected to expand further northeastward, with Inner Mongolia emerging as the new habitat centroid. 

Conclusion: This study highlights the extensive invasion risk of C. diffusa in China. The delineated distribution patterns and spatiotemporal migration trajectories provide crucial scientific support for targeted monitoring, prevention, and management strategies.

Key words: Biomod2, biological invasion, Centaurea diffusa, climate change, potential suitable areas