未来气候变化情景下东亚-北美间断分布属植物潜在分布区的比较

doi:10.17520/biods.2025478

生物多样性

未来气候变化情景下东亚-北美间断分布属植物潜在分布区的比较

蔡莉^1,2#, 葛丽萍^1#*, 彭丹晓^2,3, 胡海花^2,3, 陈之端^2,3, 牛艳婷^2,3*

1.山西农业大学林学院，晋中 030801；2.国家植物园，北京100093；3.中国科学院植物研究所，北京100093

收稿日期:2025-11-25 修回日期:2026-01-17 接受日期:2026-03-22
通讯作者: 葛丽萍, 牛艳婷

Comparison of potential distribution in East Asian-North American disjunct genera in response to future climate change

Li Cai^1,2#, Liping Ge^1#*, Danxiao Peng^2,3, Haihua Hu^2,3, Zhiduan Chen^2,3, Yanting Niu^2,3*

1. College of Forestry, Shanxi Agricultural University, Jinzhong 030801, China

2. National Botanical Garden, Beijing 100093, China

3. Institute of Botany, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100093, China

Received:2025-11-25 Revised:2026-01-17 Accepted:2026-03-22
Contact: Liping Ge, Yanting Niu

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 预测未来气候变化下植物分布区的改变，是评估物种生存潜力和生物多样性风险的重要依据。东亚-北美间断分布属因其跨大陆的亲缘关系与生态位保守性，成为揭示气候变化响应区域差异的理想研究对象。本研究选取了15个东亚-北美间断分布属（洲际物种分布区面积相当）共71种植物，利用MaxEnt模型模拟了其当前及未来的潜在分布区，分别从适生区面积变化、纬度迁移及生境破碎化程度三方面，对比分析了东亚与北美区域物种及不同生活型植物对未来气候变化的响应差异。研究结果显示，东亚和北美间断属整体上呈现出相似的响应模式，但也存在差异：（1）北美的物种相较于东亚的物种对全球气候变化的响应更敏感, 表现在面积显著变化的物种比例更高、分布区北移趋势更普遍且生境破碎化程度加剧更明显；（2）乔木和藤本植物在北美表现出更强烈的响应，具体为分布区变化幅度更大、迁移趋势更显著、生境破碎化更剧烈。灌木在两地表现出相当的迁移趋势。草本在两地表现各异，在东亚表现为更强的破碎化，而在北美则表现为扩张与连通性增强。本研究量化了东亚-北美间断分布类群对未来气候的响应差异，揭示宏观地形格局与生活型特性共同驱动该差异，并凸显地形在决定物种气候韧性中的重要作用，为识别保护优先区、制定生活型特异性保护策略及实施适应性管理提供了关键科学依据。

关键词: 东亚-北美间断分布, 生活型, 气候变化, MaxEnt模型, 分布区改变, 生物多样性

Abstract

Aims: This study aims to predict changes in plant distribution ranges under future climate change scenarios, providing critical insights for assessing species survival potential and biodiversity risks. The East Asian-North American disjunct genera, characterized by their intercontinental phylogenetic relationships and niche conservatism, serve as an ideal model system for investigating differential biotic responses to climate change across regions. This research systematically compares the responses of these plants to climate change between East Asia and North America, and explores the role of life forms (including trees, shrubs, lianas, and herbs) in this process. The goal is to deepen the understanding of biological response mechanisms to climate change and offer scientific support for developing targeted conservation strategies.

Methods: Fifteen East Asian-North American disjunct genera with comparable intercontinental distributional ranges, comprising 71 species in total, were selected. The MaxEnt model was utilized to simulate their potential distributions under both current and future climate scenarios. Based on the modeling results, responses to future climate change were compared between regions (East Asia vs. North America) and among different life forms, focusing on three aspects: changes in suitable habitat area, latitudinal shift trends, and the degree of habitat fragmentation.

Results: (1) North American species exhibited greater sensitivity to climate change than East Asian species, evidenced by a higher proportion of species experiencing significant changes in distribution area, more prevalent northward migration trends, and more pronounced habitat fragmentation. (2) The response of life forms to climate change showed regional differences: trees and lianas demonstrated stronger responses and more drastic distributional changes in North America; shrubs showed similar migration trends in both regions; herbs in East Asia displayed stronger fragmentation, whereas in North America they showed trends of expansion and enhanced connectivity.

Conclusion: This study reveals regional differences and life-form dependencies in the responses of East Asian-North American disjunct taxa to climate change. It indicates that macro-topographic patterns and life-form characteristics jointly drive these disparities, highlighting the key role of topography in determining species' climatic resilience. The findings provide important scientific support for identifying cross-regional conservation priorities and formulating life-form-specific adaptation strategies.

Key words: East Asian-North American disjunct distribution, life form, climate change, MaxEnt model, range shift, biodiversity

蔡莉, 葛丽萍, 彭丹晓, 胡海花, 陈之端, 牛艳婷. 未来气候变化情景下东亚-北美间断分布属植物潜在分布区的比较. 生物多样性, DOI: 10.17520/biods.2025478.

Li Cai, Liping Ge, Danxiao Peng, Haihua Hu, Zhiduan Chen, Yanting Niu. Comparison of potential distribution in East Asian-North American disjunct genera in response to future climate change. Biodiversity Science, DOI: 10.17520/biods.2025478.

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链接本文: https://www.biodiversity-science.net/CN/10.17520/biods.2025478

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