未来气候变化对我国特有濒危动物黑麂 适宜生境的潜在影响

doi:10.17520/biods.2016152

生物多样性 ›› 2016, Vol. 24 ›› Issue (12): 1390-1399. DOI: 10.17520/biods.2016152

• 研究报告: 动物多样性 • 上一篇下一篇

未来气候变化对我国特有濒危动物黑麂适宜生境的潜在影响

雷军成¹, 王莎², 王军围³, 吴军^4,,A;^*()

1 .赣南师范大学地理与规划学院, 江西赣州 341000
2 .赣南师范大学化学化工学院, 江西赣州 341000
3 .江苏第二师范学院美术学院, 南京 210013
4 .环境保护部南京环境科学研究所, 南京 210042

收稿日期:2016-06-06 接受日期:2016-11-02 出版日期:2016-12-20 发布日期:2017-01-10
通讯作者: 吴军
基金资助:
中国清洁发展机制基金赠款项目(1213114)

Potential effects of future climate change on suitable habitat of Muntiacus crinifrons, an endangered and endemic species in China

Juncheng Lei¹, Sha Wang², Junwei Wang³, Jun Wu^4,^*()

1 School of Geography and Planning, Gannan Normal University, Ganzhou, Jiangxi 341000
2 School of Chemistry and Chemical Engineering, Gannan Normal University, Ganzhou, Jiangxi 341000
3 School of Fine Art, Jiangsu Second Normal University, Nanjing 210013
4 Nanjing Institute of Environmental Science, Ministry of Environmental Protection, Nanjing 210042

Received:2016-06-06 Accepted:2016-11-02 Online:2016-12-20 Published:2017-01-10
Contact: Wu Jun

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

了解气候变化情景下野生动物适宜生境的可能变化, 对未来有关保护策略的制定具有重要意义。本研究利用20世纪60年代至今记录的黑麂(Muntiacus crinifrons)分布数据和9种物种分布模型, 模拟了两种温室气体浓度情景(RCP2.6和RCP8.5)下未来两个时期(2050s和2080s)黑麂的适宜生境。结果表明, 到2050s和2080s: (1)在RCP2.6情景下, 黑麂适宜生境面积相对于基准气候条件下将分别减少11.9%和6.2%, 而在RCP8.5情景下, 则分别减少36.9%和52.0%; (2)在RCP2.6情景下, 黑麂适宜生境中的“核心区域”景观面积相对于基准气候条件将分别减少20.5%和10.5%, 而在RCP8.5情景下, 则分别减少55.2%和65.2%; (3)在RCP2.6情景下, 稳定不变适宜生境的面积占基准气候条件下适宜生境面积的比例分别为75.1%和84.2%, 而在RCP8.5情景下, 分别为48.3%和35.8%。总体而言, 在RCP2.6情景下, 与基准气候条件下相比气候变化对黑麂适宜生境的影响并不显著, 而在RCP8.5情景下则较为显著, 主要表现为适宜生境面积和适宜生境中“核心区域”景观的面积明显减少, 不变适宜生境面积占基准气候条件下适宜生境面积的比例大幅度降低。建议未来加强浙江、安徽、江西三省交界地区黑麂适宜生境的保护, 建立黑麂保护区之间的廊道。

关键词: 鹿科, 气候情景, 物种分布模型, 生境, 保护

Abstract

Understanding the possible changes of suitable habitats for wild animals in the context of climate change has important implications for creating relevant conservation policies in the future. Based on presence records of black muntjac (Muntiacus crinifrons), which were recorded from 1960s to current day, and nine species distribution models, we simulated black muntjac’s suitable habitat under the future climate scenarios. Future climate scenarios were derived from two greenhouse gas concentrations scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5), and two future time slices (2050s and 2080s). Results show that, by the 2050s and 2080s, under the scenario of RCP2.6, areas of the suitable habitat of black muntjac will decrease by 11.9% and 6.2%, respectively, while under the scenario of RCP8.5, they will decrease by 36.9% and 52.0%, respectively. Under the scenario of RCP2.6, the areas of ‘core’ landscape for the suitable habitat of black muntjac will decrease by 20.5% and 10.5%, while under the scenario of RCP8.5, they will decrease by 55.2% and 65.2%, respectively. Under the scenario of RCP2.6, the proportion of stable suitable habitat to the suitable habitat under baseline climate conditions are 75.1% and 84.2%, while under the scenario of RCP8.5, they are 48.3% and 35.8%, respectively. In general, using the scenario with RCP2.6, the effects of future climate change on suitable habitat of black muntjac are minimal. In contrast, under the scenario of RCP8.5, the future climate will have drastic effects on suitable habitat for black muntjac. In particular, the area of suitable habitat and its ‘core’ landscape will significantly decrease, and so will the proportion of stable suitable habitat to the suitable habitat under baseline climate conditions. Therefore, we propose to conserve suitable habitat for black muntjac in the border area of Zhejiang, Anhui, and Jiangxi provinces, and to build corridors to connect different nature reserves for black muntjac.

Key words: Cervidae, climate scenario, species distribution model, habitat, conservation

雷军成, 王莎, 王军围, 吴军 (2016) 未来气候变化对我国特有濒危动物黑麂适宜生境的潜在影响. 生物多样性, 24, 1390-1399. DOI: 10.17520/biods.2016152.

Juncheng Lei, Sha Wang, Junwei Wang, Jun Wu (2016) Potential effects of future climate change on suitable habitat of Muntiacus crinifrons, an endangered and endemic species in China. Biodiversity Science, 24, 1390-1399. DOI: 10.17520/biods.2016152.

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链接本文: https://www.biodiversity-science.net/CN/10.17520/biods.2016152

https://www.biodiversity-science.net/CN/Y2016/V24/I12/1390

图/表 6

图1 9个物种分布模型对黑麂适宜生境预测结果的AUC值(a)和TSS值(b)。GLM: 广义线性模型; GBM: 广义增强模型; GAM: 广义相加模型; CTA: 分类树分析模型; ANN: 人工神经网络模型; FDA: 混合判别式分析模型; MARS: 多元自适应回归样条函数模型; RF: 随机森林模型; MAXENT: 最大熵模型。

Fig. 1 AUC values (a) and TSS values (b) for the nine models in predicting the suitable habitat for Muntiacus crinifrons. GLM, Generalized linear model; GBM, Generalized boosting model; GAM, Generalized additive model; CTA, Classification tree analysis; ANN, Artificial neural networks; FDA, Flexible discriminant analysis; MARS, Multiple adaptive regression splines; RF, Random forest; MAXENT, Maximum entropy.

表1 基于刀切法的各气候因子对黑麂分布的重要性百分比(%)

Table 1 Importance of each climatic factor to the distribution of Muntiacus crinifrons based on the Jackknife method (%)

	等温性 Isothermality	温度季节性变化标准差 Standard deviation of temperature seasonality	最暖月最高温 Max. temperature of warmest month	最冷月最低温 Min. temperature of coldest month	最干月降水量 Precipitation of driest month	降水量季节性变异系数 Coefficient of varia- tion of precipitation seasonality
广义线性模型 Generalized linear model	14	24	25	60	76	52
广义相加模型 Generalized additive model	52	44	46	45	88	57
广义增强模型 Generalized boosting model	4	0	0	15	96	1
分类树分析模型 Classification tree analysis	9	0	1	10	98	1
人工神经网络模型 Artificial neural networks	23	58	56	63	96	72
混合判别式分析模型 Flexible discriminant analysis	2	14	13	18	84	0
多元自适应回归样条函数模型 Multiple adaptive regression splines	9	43	10	19	94	6
随机森林模型 Random forest	3	4	3	7	62	7
最大熵模型 Maximum entropy	28	1	12	47	99	13
平均 Average	16	21	18	31	88	23

图2 基准气候条件下黑麂适宜生境

Fig. 2 Suitable habitats for Muntiacus crinifrons under baseline climate conditions

图3 不同气候条件下黑麂适宜生境面积。 RCP2.6表示辐射强迫在2100年之前达到约3W/m2的峰值, RCP8.5表示辐射强迫在2100年之前超过8.5W/m2。

Fig. 3 Areas of suitable habitats for Muntiacus crinifrons under various climate conditions. RCP2.6 represents radiative forcing peaks at approximately 3 W/m2 before 2100, while RCP8.5 represents radiative forcing reaches > 8.5 W/m2 by 2100.

图4 不同气候条件下黑麂适宜生境的景观构成。 RCP2.6表示辐射强迫在2100年之前达到约3W/m2的峰值, RCP8.5表示辐射强迫在2100年之前超过8.5W/m2。

Fig. 4 Landscape composition of suitable habitats for Muntiacus crinifrons under various climate conditions. RCP2.6 represents radiative forcing peaks at approximately 3 W/m2 before 2100, while RCP8.5 represents radiative forcing reaches > 8.5 W/m2 by 2100.

图5 不同气候情景下黑麂适宜生境空间变化。RCP2.6表示辐射强迫在2100年之前达到约3W/m2的峰值, RCP8.5表示辐射强迫在2100年之前超过8.5W/m2。

Fig. 5 Spatial changes of suitable habitats for Muntiacus crinifrons under various climate scenarios. RCP2.6 represents radiative forcing peaks at approximately 3 W/m2 before 2100, while RCP8.5 represents radiative forcing reaches > 8.5 W/m2 by 2100.

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未来气候变化对我国特有濒危动物黑麂适宜生境的潜在影响

Potential effects of future climate change on suitable habitat of Muntiacus crinifrons, an endangered and endemic species in China

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未来气候变化对我国特有濒危动物黑麂 适宜生境的潜在影响

Potential effects of future climate change on suitable habitat of Muntiacus crinifrons, an endangered and endemic species in China

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未来气候变化对我国特有濒危动物黑麂适宜生境的潜在影响