气候变化和经济发展对肾综合征出血热发生的影响

doi:10.17520/biods.2020264

生物多样性 ›› 2020, Vol. 28 ›› Issue (10): 1229-1237. DOI: 10.17520/biods.2020264

• 研究报告: 动物多样性 • 上一篇下一篇

气候变化和经济发展对肾综合征出血热发生的影响

侯祥¹, 封托¹, 韩宁¹, 王京¹, 陈晓宁¹, 安晓雷¹, 许磊²^,^*(), 刘起勇²^,^*(), 常罡¹^,^*()

1 陕西省动物研究所陕西省秦岭珍稀濒危动物保育重点实验室, 西安 710032
2 中国疾病预防控制中心传染病预防控制所传染病预防控制国家重点实验室, 北京 102206

收稿日期:2020-07-03 接受日期:2020-10-08 出版日期:2020-10-20 发布日期:2020-10-20
通讯作者: 许磊,刘起勇,常罡
作者简介:E-mail: xulei@icdc.cn
*E-mail: snow1178@snnu.edu.cn;
基金资助:
陕西省林业科学院科技创新计划(SXLK2020-0209);陕西省科学院重大科学研究专项(2014K-38);陕西省科学院重大科学研究专项(2018K-04);陕西省重点研发计划(2018NY-135);陕西省科学院科技计划(2017K-11);陕西省科学院科技计划(2020k-21);陕西省科学院高层次人才引智计划项目(2018nk-12)

Effect of climate change and economic development on hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome

Xiang Hou¹, Tuo Feng¹, Ning Han¹, Jing Wang¹, Xiaoning Chen¹, Xiaolei An¹, Lei Xu²^,^*(), Qiyong Liu²^,^*(), Gang Chang¹^,^*()

1 Shaanxi Key Laboratory for Animal Conservation, Shaanxi Institute of Zoology, Xi’an 710032;
2 State Key Laboratory of Infections Disease Prevention and Control, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206

Received:2020-07-03 Accepted:2020-10-08 Online:2020-10-20 Published:2020-10-20
Contact: Lei Xu,Qiyong Liu,Gang Chang

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

肾综合征出血热(hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome, HFRS)是一种啮齿动物传播的自然疫源性疾病, 危害严重, 已成为全球重要的公共卫生问题。本研究采用数理统计模型及小波分析方法, 对陕西省西安市鄠邑区1984-2016年HFRS的发生与鼠类、气候和经济因素的关系进行分析, 探讨气候和经济因素对HFRS发生的影响。小波分析结果表明, 该地区的HFRS暴发史可能分为两个时期, 推测每个时期具有不同的主要宿主, 在2002年褐家鼠(Rattus norvegicus)可能取代黑线姬鼠(Apodemus agrarius)成为HFRS疫源地的主要宿主。广义可加模型模拟结果表明, HFRS的发生与1984-2001年黑线姬鼠密度间存在极显著非线性效应(F_2.06,9.02= 102.415, P < 0.01), 两者间显现为正相关; 与2002-2016年的褐家鼠密度间呈正相关(F_1.67,9.02= 73.929, P < 0.01); HFRS主要宿主的这种变化可能与当地气候变化和经济发展有关: HFRS的发生与年平均温度存在极显著的非线性效应(F_2.93,9.02= 12.164, P < 0.01), 两者间呈负相关; 同样, HFRS的发生与上一年的国内生产总值(GDP)也存在显著非线性效应(F_1.70,9.02= 2.917, P < 0.05), 两者间也呈负相关。结构方程模型通过直接和间接的影响途径证明了这种转移机制, 发现温度对HFRS发生有显著的直接负向影响以及通过褐家鼠的间接正向影响; GDP对HFRS发生有直接的负向影响。本研究表明HFRS的发生与气候变化和经济发展相关, 两者均能影响HFRS的暴发, 该结论有助于今后更好地对HFRS疾病进行预防和控制。

关键词: 气候变化, 经济发展, 肾综合征出血热, 鼠类密度, 广义可加模型, 结构方程模型, 小波分析

Abstract

Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is a natural focus disease transmitted via contact with infected rodents and is a global public health threat. Using statistical models and wavelet analysis, we analyzed the effects that rodent density, climate and economic variations on HFRS cases in the Huyi District of Xi’an City, Shaanxi Province from 1984-2016. We found that the outbreak history could be divided into two periods, each of which with a different major reservoir. We found that Rattus norvegicus may have replaced Apodemus sagrarius as the major reservoir of HFRS around 2002, using wavelet analysis. Generalized additive models show that incidence of HFRS was positively associated with Apodemus sagrarius densities from 1984 to 2001 (F_2.06,9.02= 102.415, P < 0.01) and with Rattus norvegicus densities from 2002 and 2016 (F_1.67,9.02= 73.929, P < 0.01). We also found that the shift in major reservoir for HFRS was associated with local climate variation (quantified by annual average temperature), and economic activity (quantified by gross domestic product, GDP). We found negative correlations between temperature and incidence of HFRS (F_2.93,9.02= 12.164, P < 0.01) and between GDP and incidence of HFRS (F_1.70,9.02= 2.917, P < 0.05). We used a structural equation model to demonstrate this shift in reservoir through direct and indirect pathways, and found that temperature had a direct negative effect on HFRS incidence and an indirect positive effect via Rattus norvegicus. GDP has a direct negative effect on HFRS incidence. This study has demonstrated how changes in climate and economic factors have affected outbreak of HFRS. Knowledge of these effects can contribute in helping develop better strategies for controlling the spread of HFRS.

Key words: climate change, economic development, hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS), rodent density, generalized additive model, structural equation model, wavelet analysis

侯祥, 封托, 韩宁, 王京, 陈晓宁, 安晓雷, 许磊, 刘起勇, 常罡 (2020) 气候变化和经济发展对肾综合征出血热发生的影响. 生物多样性, 28, 1229-1237. DOI: 10.17520/biods.2020264.

Xiang Hou, Tuo Feng, Ning Han, Jing Wang, Xiaoning Chen, Xiaolei An, Lei Xu, Qiyong Liu, Gang Chang (2020) Effect of climate change and economic development on hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome. Biodiversity Science, 28, 1229-1237. DOI: 10.17520/biods.2020264.

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链接本文: https://www.biodiversity-science.net/CN/10.17520/biods.2020264

https://www.biodiversity-science.net/CN/Y2020/V28/I10/1229

图/表 4

图1 1984-2016年陕西省西安市鄠邑区肾综合征出血热(HFRS)病例数、温度、国内生产总值(GDP)及鼠密度时间序列图

Fig. 1 Yearly time series of cases of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS), temperature, gross domestic product (GDP) and rodent density in the Huyi District of Xi’an City, Shaanxi Province from 1984 to 2016

图2 黑线姬鼠密度、褐家鼠密度和肾综合征出血热(HFRS)之间的小波相关性。箭头方向代表两者间周期同步性关系, 箭头指向右代表两者处于同一周期; 箭头指向左代表两者处于不同周期; 箭头指向上代表后者领先于前者1/2周期; 箭头指向下代表后者落后于前者1/2周期; 箭头存在区域代表P < 0.05显著性水平, 颜色代表相关性系数。

Fig. 2 Wavelet coherence between the density of Apodemus agrarius and Rattus norvegicus and hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) cases. Arrows’ direction indicates periodic synchronicity between the former and the latter, arrows pointing to the right mean that the former and the latter are in phase; arrows pointing to the left mean that the former and the latter are in anti-phase; arrows pointing up mean that the latter leads the former by π/2; arrows pointing down mean that the former leads the latter by π/2; π/2 indicates half of the period; arrows’ region indicates significance levels P < 0.05, color indicates the coefficient of coherence.

图3 利用广义可加模型分析鼠密度、气候及经济因素对肾综合征出血热(HFRS)发生的影响效应(灰色区域为95%置信区间)。(A) 1984-2001年黑线姬鼠密度对HFRS发生的影响效应; (B) 2002-2016年褐家鼠密度对HFRS发生的影响效应; (C)当年平均温度对HFRS发生的影响效应; (D)上一年当地国内生产总值(GDP)对HFRS发生的影响效应。

Fig. 3 The effects of rodent density, climate and economic factors on the cases of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) by generalized additive models (Shaded areas are 95% confidence bands). (A) The effects of Apodemus agrarius density on the cases of HFRS from 1984-2001; (B) The effects of Rattus norvegicus density on the cases of HFRS from 2002-2016; (C)The effects of annual average temperature on the cases of HFRS; (D) The effects of local gross domestic product (GDP) in previous year on the cases of HFRS.

图4 利用结构方程模型分析气候和经济因素对肾综合征出血热(HFRS)发生的直接和间接影响路径。数字代表生态效应和相关性系数, 黑色实线代表P < 0.05的通路, 黑色虚线代表P > 0.05的通路。

Fig. 4 Structural equation model analysis revealed direct and indirect climatic and economic effects on hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) cases. Numbers indicate ecological effects and standardized coefficients, black solid line indicates statistically significant levels P < 0.05 pathways, and black dash line indicates statistically no significant levels P > 0.05 pathways.

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气候变化和经济发展对肾综合征出血热发生的影响

Effect of climate change and economic development on hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome

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