生物多样性 ›› 2020, Vol. 28 ›› Issue (10): 1229-1237.DOI: 10.17520/biods.2020264

• 研究报告 • 上一篇    下一篇

气候变化和经济发展对肾综合征出血热发生的影响

侯祥1, 封托1, 韩宁1, 王京1, 陈晓宁1, 安晓雷1, 许磊2,*(), 刘起勇2,*(), 常罡1,*()   

  1. 1 陕西省动物研究所陕西省秦岭珍稀濒危动物保育重点实验室, 西安 710032
    2 中国疾病预防控制中心传染病预防控制所传染病预防控制国家重点实验室, 北京 102206
  • 收稿日期:2020-07-03 接受日期:2020-10-08 出版日期:2020-10-20 发布日期:2020-10-20
  • 通讯作者: 许磊,刘起勇,常罡
  • 作者简介:E-mail: xulei@icdc.cn
    E-mail: snow1178@snnu.edu.cn;
  • 基金资助:
    陕西省林业科学院科技创新计划(SXLK2020-0209);陕西省科学院重大科学研究专项(2014K-38);陕西省科学院重大科学研究专项(2018K-04);陕西省重点研发计划(2018NY-135);陕西省科学院科技计划(2017K-11);陕西省科学院科技计划(2020k-21);陕西省科学院高层次人才引智计划项目(2018nk-12)

Effect of climate change and economic development on hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome

Xiang Hou1, Tuo Feng1, Ning Han1, Jing Wang1, Xiaoning Chen1, Xiaolei An1, Lei Xu2,*(), Qiyong Liu2,*(), Gang Chang1,*()   

  1. 1 Shaanxi Key Laboratory for Animal Conservation, Shaanxi Institute of Zoology, Xi’an 710032;
    2 State Key Laboratory of Infections Disease Prevention and Control, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206
  • Received:2020-07-03 Accepted:2020-10-08 Online:2020-10-20 Published:2020-10-20
  • Contact: Lei Xu,Qiyong Liu,Gang Chang

摘要:

肾综合征出血热(hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome, HFRS)是一种啮齿动物传播的自然疫源性疾病, 危害严重, 已成为全球重要的公共卫生问题。本研究采用数理统计模型及小波分析方法, 对陕西省西安市鄠邑区1984-2016年HFRS的发生与鼠类、气候和经济因素的关系进行分析, 探讨气候和经济因素对HFRS发生的影响。小波分析结果表明, 该地区的HFRS暴发史可能分为两个时期, 推测每个时期具有不同的主要宿主, 在2002年褐家鼠(Rattus norvegicus)可能取代黑线姬鼠(Apodemus agrarius)成为HFRS疫源地的主要宿主。广义可加模型模拟结果表明, HFRS的发生与1984-2001年黑线姬鼠密度间存在极显著非线性效应(F2.06,9.02 = 102.415, P < 0.01), 两者间显现为正相关; 与2002-2016年的褐家鼠密度间呈正相关(F1.67,9.02 = 73.929, P < 0.01); HFRS主要宿主的这种变化可能与当地气候变化和经济发展有关: HFRS的发生与年平均温度存在极显著的非线性效应(F2.93,9.02 = 12.164, P < 0.01), 两者间呈负相关; 同样, HFRS的发生与上一年的国内生产总值(GDP)也存在显著非线性效应(F1.70,9.02 = 2.917, P < 0.05), 两者间也呈负相关。结构方程模型通过直接和间接的影响途径证明了这种转移机制, 发现温度对HFRS发生有显著的直接负向影响以及通过褐家鼠的间接正向影响; GDP对HFRS发生有直接的负向影响。本研究表明HFRS的发生与气候变化和经济发展相关, 两者均能影响HFRS的暴发, 该结论有助于今后更好地对HFRS疾病进行预防和控制。

关键词: 气候变化, 经济发展, 肾综合征出血热, 鼠类密度, 广义可加模型, 结构方程模型, 小波分析

Abstract:

Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is a natural focus disease transmitted via contact with infected rodents and is a global public health threat. Using statistical models and wavelet analysis, we analyzed the effects that rodent density, climate and economic variations on HFRS cases in the Huyi District of Xi’an City, Shaanxi Province from 1984-2016. We found that the outbreak history could be divided into two periods, each of which with a different major reservoir. We found that Rattus norvegicus may have replaced Apodemus sagrarius as the major reservoir of HFRS around 2002, using wavelet analysis. Generalized additive models show that incidence of HFRS was positively associated with Apodemus sagrarius densities from 1984 to 2001 (F2.06,9.02 = 102.415, P < 0.01) and with Rattus norvegicus densities from 2002 and 2016 (F1.67,9.02 = 73.929, P < 0.01). We also found that the shift in major reservoir for HFRS was associated with local climate variation (quantified by annual average temperature), and economic activity (quantified by gross domestic product, GDP). We found negative correlations between temperature and incidence of HFRS (F2.93,9.02 = 12.164, P < 0.01) and between GDP and incidence of HFRS (F1.70,9.02 = 2.917, P < 0.05). We used a structural equation model to demonstrate this shift in reservoir through direct and indirect pathways, and found that temperature had a direct negative effect on HFRS incidence and an indirect positive effect via Rattus norvegicus. GDP has a direct negative effect on HFRS incidence. This study has demonstrated how changes in climate and economic factors have affected outbreak of HFRS. Knowledge of these effects can contribute in helping develop better strategies for controlling the spread of HFRS.

Key words: climate change, economic development, hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS), rodent density, generalized additive model, structural equation model, wavelet analysis