生物多样性 ›› 2021, Vol. 29 ›› Issue (6): 697-711.DOI: 10.17520/biods.2020482

• 研究报告:植物多样性 •    下一篇

气候变化对亚热带常绿阔叶林优势类群樟属植物的影响及保护评估

周润1,2, 慈秀芹1,3, 肖建华1,2, 曹关龙1,2, 李捷1,3,*()   

  1. 1.中国科学院西双版纳热带植物园综合保护中心, 昆明 650223
    2.中国科学院大学, 北京 100049
    3.中国科学院核心植物园综合保护中心, 云南勐腊 666303
  • 收稿日期:2020-12-28 接受日期:2021-03-18 出版日期:2021-06-20 发布日期:2021-04-22
  • 通讯作者: 李捷
  • 作者简介:* E-mail: jieli@xtbg.ac.cn
  • 基金资助:
    中国科学院战略生物资源服务网络计划生物多样性保护策略(ZSSD-013);国家自然科学基金(31770569)

Effects and conservation assessment of climate change on the dominant group—The genusCinnamomum of subtropical evergreen broad-leaved forests

Run Zhou1,2, Xiuqin Ci1,3, Jianhua Xiao1,2, Guanlong Cao1,2, Jie Li1,3,*()   

  1. 1 Center for Integrative Conservation, Xishuangbanna Tropical Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Kunming 650223
    2 University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049
    3 Center of Conservation Biology, Core Botanical Gardens, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Mengla, Yunnan 666303
  • Received:2020-12-28 Accepted:2021-03-18 Online:2021-06-20 Published:2021-04-22
  • Contact: Jie Li

摘要:

常绿阔叶林的优势类群由于其个体数量多、盖度大、生物量高、生存能力强, 对维持相应生态系统的稳定起着主导作用。樟属(Cinnamomum)植物为亚热带常绿阔叶林的优势类群, 通过对其过去、当前和未来潜在分布区的研究可以了解该类群的变迁历史, 为理解亚热带常绿阔叶林动态变化提供帮助, 有助于亚热带常绿阔叶林保育策略的制定。本研究利用最大熵(MaxEnt)模型模拟了我国樟属47种植物在5个时期(末次间冰期、末次盛冰期、全新世中期、当前和未来)的潜在分布区及物种丰富度热点区域。此外, 根据樟属植物的物种丰富度热点区域与自然保护区相叠加, 对当前自然保护区的保护状态进行了评估, 尤其是为保护亚热带常绿阔叶林而设立的自然保护区。结果表明: 樟属物种的潜在分布区在5个时期变化均不大, 仅在亚热带-温带交界处的各大山脉和平原之间出现局部收缩和扩张; 值得注意的是, 物种丰富度热点区域在5个时期变化明显, 末次盛冰期面积最大, 相较于末次间冰期、全新世中期和当前分别多96%、88%和37%; 未来(~2080年)两种不同温室气体排放典型浓度途径(representative concentration pathways, RCP) (RCP2.6和RCP8.5)下, 樟属物种丰富度热点区域面积将分别比当前收缩8.4%和10.0%, 并且随着温室气体排放的增加, 物种热点区域收缩趋势会更加明显。此外, 本研究发现樟属物种丰富度热点区域主要位于我国四川东南部、贵州南部、广西和广东, 然而仅7.5%位于现有自然保护区内, 未来自然保护区、国家公园等自然保护地的扩建、选址和规划应优先考虑四川东南部和华南地区。

关键词: 气候变化, 亚热带常绿阔叶林, 优势类群, 樟属, 保护区评估, MaxEnt模型

Abstract

Aims: The Chinese subtropical evergreen broad-leaved forest is facing great threats, caused by global climate change, and its protection needs to be solved urgently. Cinnamomum is the dominant genus for the subtropical evergreen broad-leaved forest. Cinnamomum is fundamental to the stability of the subtropical evergreen broad-leaved forest ecosystem due to its large number of individuals, large coverage, high biomass, and strong living ability. Here, we predict the potential spatial distribution pattern (potential distribution area and species richness hotspots area) for Cinnamomum under five periods of bioclimatic, overlay the nature reserves on species richness hotspots to evaluate the conservation status of Cinnamomum, and make reasonable suggestions for the nature reserves, national parks, and other protected areas.

Methods: In this study, we collected occurrence data for 47 species of Cinnamomum in China and bioclimatic data during five periods (i.e. Last Interglacial (LIG), Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), Mid Holocene (MH), current, and future). Using the bioclimatic data, we predicted the potential distribution and species richness hotspots of Cinnamomum using the maximum-entropy (MaxEnt) model, and overlay the nature reserve on species richness hotspots of Cinnamomum to evaluate the conservation status, especially in the subtropical evergreen broad-leaved forest nature reserves.

Results: The change in the potential distribution area for Cinnamomum was not significant among the five time periods. However, the area of potential distribution for this group has contracted and expanded in the mountains and plains, especially at the border between subtropical and temperate regions. The hotspots for species richness did change significantly among the five periods. Among these periods, the potential distribution area of Cinnamomum during the LGM was the largest, and 96%, 88%, and 37% higher than the LIG, MH, and current time period, respectively. For the future scenarios (~2080 years), the area of species richness hotspots will contract 8.4% for representative concentration pathways (RCP) 2.6 and 10.0% for RCP8.5. With the increase of greenhouse gas emissions, the degree of contraction will be sharper. Through conservation assessment, species richness hotspots of Cinnamomumare mainly located in southeastern Sichuan, southern Guizhou, Guangxi, and Guangdong provinces. Only 7.5% of species richness hotspots are distributed in nature reserves.

Conclusions: The distribution center of Cinnamomum is mainly located in southeastern Sichuan and southern China, and the future climate change will have a negative impact on species richness hotspots for this genus. Therefore, the management and planning for the nature reserve, national park, and other protected areas should consider southeastern Sichuan and southern China as areas in need of more protection.

Key words: climate change, subtropical evergreen broad-leaved forest, dominant group, Cinnamomum, nature reserve assessment, MaxEnt model