Comparison of potential distribution of East Asian-North American disjunct distribution genera in response to future climate change

doi:10.17520/biods.2025478

Abstract

Abstract:

Aims: This study aims to predict changes in plant distribution ranges under future climate change scenarios and to provide critical insights for assessing species survival potential and biodiversity risks, clarify plant response mechanisms to climate change, and offer a scientific basis for targeted conservation strategies. The East Asian-North American (EA-NA) disjunct distribution genera, with intercontinental phylogenetic relationships and niche conservatism, are ideal for exploring regional differences in plant responses to climate change. This study compares their responses across the two continents and examines the role of life forms (trees, shrubs, lianas, and herbs).

Methods: Fifteen EA-NA disjunct distribution genera with comparable intercontinental distributional ranges, comprising 71 species in total, were selected. The maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model was utilized to simulate their potential distributions under both current and future climate scenarios. Based on the modeling results, responses to future climate change were compared between regions (East Asia vs. North America) and among different life forms, focusing on three aspects: changes in suitable habitat area, latitudinal shift trends, and the degree of habitat fragmentation.

Results: (1) North American species exhibited greater sensitivity to climate change than East Asian species, evidenced by a higher proportion of species experiencing significant changes in distribution area, more prevalent northward migration trends, and more pronounced habitat fragmentation. (2) The response of life forms to climate change showed regional differences: trees and lianas demonstrated stronger responses and more drastic distributional changes in North America; shrubs showed similar migration trends in both regions; herbs in East Asia displayed stronger fragmentation, while those in North America showed trends of expansion and enhanced connectivity.

Conclusion: This study reveals regional differences and life-form dependencies in the responses of EA-NA disjunct distribution taxa to climate change. It indicates that macro-topographic patterns and life-form characteristics jointly drive these disparities, highlighting the key role of topography in determining species’ climatic resilience. The findings provide important scientific support for identifying cross-regional conservation priorities and formulating life-form-specific adaptation strategies.

Key words: East Asian-North American disjunct distribution, life form, climate change, MaxEnt model, distribution shift, biodiversity

Li Cai, Liping Ge, Danxiao Peng, Haihua Hu, Zhiduan Chen, Yanting Niu. Comparison of potential distribution of East Asian-North American disjunct distribution genera in response to future climate change[J]. Biodiv Sci, 2026, 34(6): 25478.

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URL: https://www.biodiversity-science.net/EN/10.17520/biods.2025478

https://www.biodiversity-science.net/EN/Y2026/V34/I6/25478

Figures/Tables 4

References 61

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物种比 Species ratio (EA : NA)	属 Genus	物种 Species	生活型 Life form		地区 Region	中高适生区面积变化率 Rate of change in mid-to-high suitable habitat area (%)	高适生区面积变化率 Rate of change in high suitable habitat area (%)	质心迁移纬度 Latitudinal shift of the centroid
1 : 1	鹅掌楸属 Liriodendron	鹅掌楸 L. chinense	乔木 Trees		东亚 EA	-0.14	22.17	-0.063
	鹅掌楸属 Liriodendron	北美鹅掌楸 L. tulipifera	乔木 Trees		北美 NA	4.83	-11.08	3.860^*
	檀梨属 Pyrularia	檀梨 P. edulis	灌木 Shurbs		东亚 EA	19.94	34.03	1.580^*
	檀梨属 Pyrularia	美洲檀梨 P. pubera^#	灌木 Shurbs		北美 NA	6.31	-2.32	2.173^*
	扯根菜属 Penthorum	扯根菜 P. chinense	草本 Herbs		东亚 EA	25.16	-2.86	2.654^*
	扯根菜属 Penthorum	北美扯根菜 P. sedoides	草本 Herbs		北美 NA	27.47	41.15	2.849^*
	凌霄属 Campsis	凌霄 C. grandiflora	藤本 Lianas		东亚 EA	25.74	59.79	0.862
	凌霄属 Campsis	厚萼凌霄 C. radicans	藤本 Lianas		北美 NA	23.09	-9.32	1.375^*
	荷包藤属 Adlumia	荷包藤 A. asiatica	草本 Herbs		东亚 EA	40.11	59.98	3.422^*
	荷包藤属 Adlumia	北美荷包藤 A. fungosa	草本 Herbs		北美 NA	-39.79	-51.96	3.671^*
n : 1	崖柏属 Thuja	朝鲜崖柏 T. koraiensis^#	乔木 Trees		东亚 EA	-4.66	-36.16	1.210^*
	崖柏属 Thuja	日本香柏 T. standishii^#	乔木 Trees		东亚 EA	-35.46	-3.07	0.002
	崖柏属 Thuja	崖柏 T. sutchuenensis^#	乔木 Trees		东亚 EA	4.80	9.12	-0.023
	崖柏属 Thuja	北美香柏 T. occidentalis	乔木 Trees		北美 NA	-2.43	-2.25	0.872
	崖柏属 Thuja	北美乔柏 T. plicata	乔木 Trees		北美 NA	7.99	12.99	1.590^*
	刺人参属 Oplopanax	刺参 O. elatus^#	灌木 Shurbs		东亚 EA	9.88	69.55	1.851^*
	刺人参属 Oplopanax	日本刺参 O. japonicus ^#	灌木 Shurbs		东亚 EA	-7.63	-9.86	0.741
	刺人参属 Oplopanax	美洲刺参 O. horridus	灌木 Shurbs		北美 NA	3.29	17.98	1.474^*
	金刚大属 Croomia	异被金刚大 C. heterosepala^#	草本 Herbs		东亚 EA	-24.04	-32.30	0.749
	金刚大属 Croomia	紫心金刚大 C. hyugaensis^#	草本 Herbs		东亚 EA	8.76	3.93	1.251^*
	金刚大属 Croomia	金刚大 C. japonica^#	草本 Herbs		东亚 EA	1.90	47.34	0.784
	金刚大属 Croomia	北美金刚大 C. pauciflora^#	草本 Herbs		北美 NA	125.74	195.72	0.765
	土圞儿属 Apios	肉色土圞儿 A. carnea	草本 Herbs		东亚 EA	-7.32	-0.27	0.281
	土圞儿属 Apios	云南土圞儿 A. delavayi	草本 Herbs		东亚 EA	-12.35	-15.33	0.452
	土圞儿属 Apios	土圞儿 A. fortunei	草本 Herbs		东亚 EA	-17.21	-8.52	0.010
	土圞儿属 Apios	大花土圞儿 A. macrantha	草本 Herbs		东亚 EA	-9.69	-17.67	0.633
	土圞儿属 Apios	长延土圞儿 A. priceana^#	草本 Herbs		北美 NA	185.31	378.89	1.070^*
	土圞儿属 Apios	北美土圞儿 A. americana	草本 Herbs		北美 NA	15.49	-19.34	2.855^*
	地锦属 Parthenocissus	三叶地锦 P. semicordata	藤本 Lianas		东亚 EA	-2.44	2.46	0.380
	地锦属 Parthenocissus	小叶地锦 P. chinensis	藤本 Lianas		东亚 EA	3.84	-2.24	0.000
	地锦属 Parthenocissus	长柄地锦 P. feddei	藤本 Lianas		东亚 EA	-13.00	-28.98	0.167
	地锦属 Parthenocissus	三叉虎 P. heterophylla	藤本 Lianas		东亚 EA	-19.07	-19.39	0.097
	地锦属 Parthenocissus	栓翅地锦 P. suberosa	藤本 Lianas		东亚 EA	34.40	47.02	0.224
	地锦属 Parthenocissus	异叶地锦 P. dalzielii	藤本 Lianas		东亚 EA	7.34	25.58	1.868^*
	地锦属 Parthenocissus	地锦 P. tricuspidata	藤本 Lianas		东亚 EA	-6.95	70.11	-0.350
	地锦属 Parthenocissus	绿叶地锦 P. laetevirens	藤本 Lianas		东亚 EA	-0.16	1.99	0.320
	地锦属 Parthenocissus	花叶地锦 P. henryan	藤本 Lianas		东亚 EA	20.73	14.61	0.628
	地锦属 Parthenocissus	七叶地锦 P. heptaphylla	藤本 Lianas		北美 NA	56.69	63.62	0.755
	地锦属 Parthenocissus	五叶地锦 P. quinquefolia	藤本 Lianas		北美 NA	89.95	265.02	1.351^*
	地锦属 Parthenocissus	葡萄地锦 P. vitacea	藤本 Lianas		北美 NA	-6.91	1.78	2.620^*
物种比 Species ratio (EA : NA)	属 Genus	物种 Species		生活型 Life form	地区 Region	中高适生区面积变化率 Rate of change in mid-to-high suitable habitat area (%)	高适生区面积变化率 Rate of change in high suitable habitat area (%)	质心迁移纬度 Latitudinal shift of the centroid
1 : n	山核桃属 Carya	山核桃 C. cathayensis		乔木 Trees	东亚 EA	39.19	59.77	1.338^*
	山核桃属 Carya	湖南山核桃 C. hunanensis		乔木 Trees	东亚 EA	13.58	36.23	0.317
	山核桃属 Carya	贵州山核桃 C. kweichowensis^#		乔木 Trees	东亚 EA	34.51	51.33	0.000
	山核桃属 Carya	越南山核桃 C. tonkinensis^#		乔木 Trees	东亚 EA	14.93	17.44	-0.593
	山核桃属 Carya	水山核桃 C. aquatica		乔木 Trees	北美 NA	41.16	38.65	1.160^*
	山核桃属 Carya	苦味山核桃 C. cordiformis		乔木 Trees	北美 NA	32.15	30.56	2.712
	山核桃属 Carya	佛罗里达山核桃 C. floridana^#		乔木 Trees	北美 NA	44.07	-16.72	0.034
	山核桃属 Carya	沼泽山核桃 C. glabra		乔木 Trees	北美 NA	34.75	-4.25	4.774^*
	山核桃属 Carya	美国山核桃 C. illinoinensis		乔木 Trees	北美 NA	11.94	15.38	1.251^*
	山核桃属 Carya	条裂山核桃 C. laciniosa		乔木 Trees	北美 NA	23.97	10.70	1.813^*
	山核桃属 Carya	肉豆蔻山核桃 C. myristiciformis^#		乔木 Trees	北美 NA	56.80	62.36	1.186^*
	山核桃属 Carya	粗皮山核桃 C. ovata		乔木 Trees	北美 NA	12.51	11.00	1.321^*
	山核桃属 Carya	苍白山核桃 C. pallida		乔木 Trees	北美 NA	22.61	-41.09	1.700
	山核桃属 Carya	墨西哥山核桃 C. palmeri^#		乔木 Trees	北美 NA	-28.64	-18.59	0.000
	山核桃属 Carya	得州山核桃 C. texana		乔木 Trees	北美 NA	31.42	31.42	1.374^*
	山核桃属 Carya	硬壳山核桃 C. tomentosa		乔木 Trees	北美 NA	28.87	23.06	1.710^*
	夏蜡梅属 Calycanthus	夏蜡梅 C. chinensis^#		灌木 Shurbs	东亚 EA	22.07	25.25	1.012^*
	夏蜡梅属 Calycanthus	美国蜡梅 C. floridus		灌木 Shurbs	北美 NA	17.03	10.74	1.242^*
	夏蜡梅属 Calycanthus	加州夏蜡梅 C. occidentalis^#		灌木 Shurbs	北美 NA	-0.68	-8.87	0.375
	红毛七属 Caulophyllum	红毛七 C. robustum		草本 Herbs	东亚 EA	1.54	9.35	5.709^*
	红毛七属 Caulophyllum	大红毛七 C. giganteum		草本 Herbs	北美 NA	13.43	7.06	2.831^*
	红毛七属 Caulophyllum	唐松草状红毛七 C. thalictroides		草本 Herbs	北美 NA	1.51	-11.44	3.860^*
	梓属 Catalpa	楸 C. bungei		乔木 Trees	东亚 EA	6.72	13.65	0.181
	梓属 Catalpa	梓 C. ovata		乔木 Trees	东亚 EA	9.76	-7.58	0.328
	梓属 Catalpa	美国梓树 C. bignonioides		乔木 Trees	北美 NA	23.20	12.63	1.868^*
	梓属 Catalpa	短柄梓 C. brevipes^#		乔木 Trees	北美 NA	1.05	39.25	-1.837^*
	梓属 Catalpa	大果梓 C. macrocarpa^#		乔木 Trees	北美 NA	125.91	187.02	1.111^*
	梓属 Catalpa	黄金树 C. speciosa		乔木 Trees	北美 NA	-15.38	-1.92	1.473^*
	钩吻属 Gelsemium	钩吻 G. elegans		藤本 Lianas	东亚 EA	19.12	4.59	1.326^*
	钩吻属 Gelsemium	沼生钩吻 G. rankinii^#		藤本 Lianas	北美 NA	32.36	55.98	0.114
	钩吻属 Gelsemium	常绿钩吻藤 G. sempervirens		藤本 Lianas	北美 NA	18.32	24.07	1.308^*

物种比 Species ratio (EA : NA)	属 Genus	物种 Species	生活型 Life form		地区 Region	中高适生区面积变化率 Rate of change in mid-to-high suitable habitat area (%)	高适生区面积变化率 Rate of change in high suitable habitat area (%)	质心迁移纬度 Latitudinal shift of the centroid
1 : 1	鹅掌楸属 Liriodendron	鹅掌楸 L. chinense	乔木 Trees		东亚 EA	-0.14	22.17	-0.063
	鹅掌楸属 Liriodendron	北美鹅掌楸 L. tulipifera	乔木 Trees		北美 NA	4.83	-11.08	3.860^*
	檀梨属 Pyrularia	檀梨 P. edulis	灌木 Shurbs		东亚 EA	19.94	34.03	1.580^*
	檀梨属 Pyrularia	美洲檀梨 P. pubera^#	灌木 Shurbs		北美 NA	6.31	-2.32	2.173^*
	扯根菜属 Penthorum	扯根菜 P. chinense	草本 Herbs		东亚 EA	25.16	-2.86	2.654^*
	扯根菜属 Penthorum	北美扯根菜 P. sedoides	草本 Herbs		北美 NA	27.47	41.15	2.849^*
	凌霄属 Campsis	凌霄 C. grandiflora	藤本 Lianas		东亚 EA	25.74	59.79	0.862
	凌霄属 Campsis	厚萼凌霄 C. radicans	藤本 Lianas		北美 NA	23.09	-9.32	1.375^*
	荷包藤属 Adlumia	荷包藤 A. asiatica	草本 Herbs		东亚 EA	40.11	59.98	3.422^*
	荷包藤属 Adlumia	北美荷包藤 A. fungosa	草本 Herbs		北美 NA	-39.79	-51.96	3.671^*
n : 1	崖柏属 Thuja	朝鲜崖柏 T. koraiensis^#	乔木 Trees		东亚 EA	-4.66	-36.16	1.210^*
	崖柏属 Thuja	日本香柏 T. standishii^#	乔木 Trees		东亚 EA	-35.46	-3.07	0.002
	崖柏属 Thuja	崖柏 T. sutchuenensis^#	乔木 Trees		东亚 EA	4.80	9.12	-0.023
	崖柏属 Thuja	北美香柏 T. occidentalis	乔木 Trees		北美 NA	-2.43	-2.25	0.872
	崖柏属 Thuja	北美乔柏 T. plicata	乔木 Trees		北美 NA	7.99	12.99	1.590^*
	刺人参属 Oplopanax	刺参 O. elatus^#	灌木 Shurbs		东亚 EA	9.88	69.55	1.851^*
	刺人参属 Oplopanax	日本刺参 O. japonicus ^#	灌木 Shurbs		东亚 EA	-7.63	-9.86	0.741
	刺人参属 Oplopanax	美洲刺参 O. horridus	灌木 Shurbs		北美 NA	3.29	17.98	1.474^*
	金刚大属 Croomia	异被金刚大 C. heterosepala^#	草本 Herbs		东亚 EA	-24.04	-32.30	0.749
	金刚大属 Croomia	紫心金刚大 C. hyugaensis^#	草本 Herbs		东亚 EA	8.76	3.93	1.251^*
	金刚大属 Croomia	金刚大 C. japonica^#	草本 Herbs		东亚 EA	1.90	47.34	0.784
	金刚大属 Croomia	北美金刚大 C. pauciflora^#	草本 Herbs		北美 NA	125.74	195.72	0.765
	土圞儿属 Apios	肉色土圞儿 A. carnea	草本 Herbs		东亚 EA	-7.32	-0.27	0.281
	土圞儿属 Apios	云南土圞儿 A. delavayi	草本 Herbs		东亚 EA	-12.35	-15.33	0.452
	土圞儿属 Apios	土圞儿 A. fortunei	草本 Herbs		东亚 EA	-17.21	-8.52	0.010
	土圞儿属 Apios	大花土圞儿 A. macrantha	草本 Herbs		东亚 EA	-9.69	-17.67	0.633
	土圞儿属 Apios	长延土圞儿 A. priceana^#	草本 Herbs		北美 NA	185.31	378.89	1.070^*
	土圞儿属 Apios	北美土圞儿 A. americana	草本 Herbs		北美 NA	15.49	-19.34	2.855^*
	地锦属 Parthenocissus	三叶地锦 P. semicordata	藤本 Lianas		东亚 EA	-2.44	2.46	0.380
	地锦属 Parthenocissus	小叶地锦 P. chinensis	藤本 Lianas		东亚 EA	3.84	-2.24	0.000
	地锦属 Parthenocissus	长柄地锦 P. feddei	藤本 Lianas		东亚 EA	-13.00	-28.98	0.167
	地锦属 Parthenocissus	三叉虎 P. heterophylla	藤本 Lianas		东亚 EA	-19.07	-19.39	0.097
	地锦属 Parthenocissus	栓翅地锦 P. suberosa	藤本 Lianas		东亚 EA	34.40	47.02	0.224
	地锦属 Parthenocissus	异叶地锦 P. dalzielii	藤本 Lianas		东亚 EA	7.34	25.58	1.868^*
	地锦属 Parthenocissus	地锦 P. tricuspidata	藤本 Lianas		东亚 EA	-6.95	70.11	-0.350
	地锦属 Parthenocissus	绿叶地锦 P. laetevirens	藤本 Lianas		东亚 EA	-0.16	1.99	0.320
	地锦属 Parthenocissus	花叶地锦 P. henryan	藤本 Lianas		东亚 EA	20.73	14.61	0.628
	地锦属 Parthenocissus	七叶地锦 P. heptaphylla	藤本 Lianas		北美 NA	56.69	63.62	0.755
	地锦属 Parthenocissus	五叶地锦 P. quinquefolia	藤本 Lianas		北美 NA	89.95	265.02	1.351^*
	地锦属 Parthenocissus	葡萄地锦 P. vitacea	藤本 Lianas		北美 NA	-6.91	1.78	2.620^*
物种比 Species ratio (EA : NA)	属 Genus	物种 Species		生活型 Life form	地区 Region	中高适生区面积变化率 Rate of change in mid-to-high suitable habitat area (%)	高适生区面积变化率 Rate of change in high suitable habitat area (%)	质心迁移纬度 Latitudinal shift of the centroid
1 : n	山核桃属 Carya	山核桃 C. cathayensis		乔木 Trees	东亚 EA	39.19	59.77	1.338^*
	山核桃属 Carya	湖南山核桃 C. hunanensis		乔木 Trees	东亚 EA	13.58	36.23	0.317
	山核桃属 Carya	贵州山核桃 C. kweichowensis^#		乔木 Trees	东亚 EA	34.51	51.33	0.000
	山核桃属 Carya	越南山核桃 C. tonkinensis^#		乔木 Trees	东亚 EA	14.93	17.44	-0.593
	山核桃属 Carya	水山核桃 C. aquatica		乔木 Trees	北美 NA	41.16	38.65	1.160^*
	山核桃属 Carya	苦味山核桃 C. cordiformis		乔木 Trees	北美 NA	32.15	30.56	2.712
	山核桃属 Carya	佛罗里达山核桃 C. floridana^#		乔木 Trees	北美 NA	44.07	-16.72	0.034
	山核桃属 Carya	沼泽山核桃 C. glabra		乔木 Trees	北美 NA	34.75	-4.25	4.774^*
	山核桃属 Carya	美国山核桃 C. illinoinensis		乔木 Trees	北美 NA	11.94	15.38	1.251^*
	山核桃属 Carya	条裂山核桃 C. laciniosa		乔木 Trees	北美 NA	23.97	10.70	1.813^*
	山核桃属 Carya	肉豆蔻山核桃 C. myristiciformis^#		乔木 Trees	北美 NA	56.80	62.36	1.186^*
	山核桃属 Carya	粗皮山核桃 C. ovata		乔木 Trees	北美 NA	12.51	11.00	1.321^*
	山核桃属 Carya	苍白山核桃 C. pallida		乔木 Trees	北美 NA	22.61	-41.09	1.700
	山核桃属 Carya	墨西哥山核桃 C. palmeri^#		乔木 Trees	北美 NA	-28.64	-18.59	0.000
	山核桃属 Carya	得州山核桃 C. texana		乔木 Trees	北美 NA	31.42	31.42	1.374^*
	山核桃属 Carya	硬壳山核桃 C. tomentosa		乔木 Trees	北美 NA	28.87	23.06	1.710^*
	夏蜡梅属 Calycanthus	夏蜡梅 C. chinensis^#		灌木 Shurbs	东亚 EA	22.07	25.25	1.012^*
	夏蜡梅属 Calycanthus	美国蜡梅 C. floridus		灌木 Shurbs	北美 NA	17.03	10.74	1.242^*
	夏蜡梅属 Calycanthus	加州夏蜡梅 C. occidentalis^#		灌木 Shurbs	北美 NA	-0.68	-8.87	0.375
	红毛七属 Caulophyllum	红毛七 C. robustum		草本 Herbs	东亚 EA	1.54	9.35	5.709^*
	红毛七属 Caulophyllum	大红毛七 C. giganteum		草本 Herbs	北美 NA	13.43	7.06	2.831^*
	红毛七属 Caulophyllum	唐松草状红毛七 C. thalictroides		草本 Herbs	北美 NA	1.51	-11.44	3.860^*
	梓属 Catalpa	楸 C. bungei		乔木 Trees	东亚 EA	6.72	13.65	0.181
	梓属 Catalpa	梓 C. ovata		乔木 Trees	东亚 EA	9.76	-7.58	0.328
	梓属 Catalpa	美国梓树 C. bignonioides		乔木 Trees	北美 NA	23.20	12.63	1.868^*
	梓属 Catalpa	短柄梓 C. brevipes^#		乔木 Trees	北美 NA	1.05	39.25	-1.837^*
	梓属 Catalpa	大果梓 C. macrocarpa^#		乔木 Trees	北美 NA	125.91	187.02	1.111^*
	梓属 Catalpa	黄金树 C. speciosa		乔木 Trees	北美 NA	-15.38	-1.92	1.473^*
	钩吻属 Gelsemium	钩吻 G. elegans		藤本 Lianas	东亚 EA	19.12	4.59	1.326^*
	钩吻属 Gelsemium	沼生钩吻 G. rankinii^#		藤本 Lianas	北美 NA	32.36	55.98	0.114
	钩吻属 Gelsemium	常绿钩吻藤 G. sempervirens		藤本 Lianas	北美 NA	18.32	24.07	1.308^*