生物多样性 ›› 2022, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (5): 21459.  DOI: 10.17520/biods.2021459

• 数据论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

全球变化情景下的中国木本植物受威胁物种名录

彭莳嘉, 罗源, 蔡宏宇, 张晓玲, 王志恒()   

  1. 北京大学城市与环境学院生态研究中心、地表过程分析与模拟教育部重点实验室, 北京 100871
  • 收稿日期:2021-11-15 接受日期:2022-05-10 出版日期:2022-05-20 发布日期:2022-05-31
  • 通讯作者: 王志恒
  • 作者简介:* E-mail: zhiheng.wang@pku.edu.cn
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金(32125026);国家自然科学基金(32101401);国家自然科学基金(31988102)

A new list of threatened woody species in China under future global change scenarios

Shijia Peng, Yuan Luo, Hongyu Cai, Xiaoling Zhang, Zhiheng Wang()   

  1. Institute of Ecology and Key Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes of the Ministry of Education, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871
  • Received:2021-11-15 Accepted:2022-05-10 Online:2022-05-20 Published:2022-05-31
  • Contact: Zhiheng Wang

摘要:

生物多样性正面临快速丧失的风险, 气候和土地利用变化已成为生物多样性的主要威胁之一。受威胁物种名录是区域和全球生物多样性保护的重要基础数据, 也是保护区规划的基础。作为一个生物多样性大国, 中国已开展了高等植物受威胁状况的系统性评估, 建立了受威胁植物名录, 为植物多样性保护规划提供了支撑。但由于数据和方法限制, 现有受威胁植物名录制定时未定量考虑全球变化对植物分布的潜在影响, 因而可能低估物种的受威胁等级及未来生物多样性的丧失风险。本研究基于高精度的木本植物分布数据和物种分布模型, 评估了未来气候和土地利用变化对木本植物分布的潜在影响。基于每个物种适宜分布区大小的变化, 并依据IUCN红色名录评估指标A3c的阈值标准, 更新了木本植物的受威胁等级, 补充了未来中国潜在受威胁木本植物名录。结果显示: 综合不同的气候变化情景(RCP 2.6、RCP 6.0和RCP 8.5)和扩散情景(完全扩散、20 km/10年、不扩散), 约12.9%-40.5%的木本植物被评估为受威胁物种。该名录将为制定木本植物保护优先级、开展保护区规划、提升全球变化情景下的生物多样性保护成效提供基础数据, 也为其他类群制定全面的受威胁物种名录提供参考。

https://www.biodiversity-science.net/fileup/1005-0094/DATA/2021459.zip

关键词: IUCN红色名录, 木本植物, 濒危等级, 全球变化, 中国

Abstract

The world is currently experiencing a biodiversity crisis, and climate and land-cover changes are now recognized as two major threats to biodiversity. China is one of the mega-biodiversity countries and the threatened species list of China’s higher plants was reported in 2017. This list provided important data for biological conservation and protected area planning from regional to global scales. However, it was mainly based on the past and current status of species population and distribution, while future responses of species to climate and land-cover changes were rarely considered. This will lead to an underestimation of future local extinction risks. Using high-resolution species distribution data of woody plants and species distribution models, we evaluated the impacts of climate and land-cover changes on woody species distributions and estimated changes in the extent of occurrence (EOA) for each species. Our results indicate that 12.9%-40.5% of woody species will be threatened under different climate and dispersal scenarios. Based on these results, we updated the list of threatened woody species in China based on the IUCN Red List Criteria. This new list of threatened woody species provides important data for assessing the conservation priorities of woody plants, for the planning of future nature reserve extension, for improving the performance of nature reserves under future global change scenarios, and for updating the list of threatened species of other taxa.

Key words: IUCN Red List, woody plant species, threatened categories, global changes, China