The climate niche is stable and the distribution area of Ageratina adenophora is predicted to expand in China

doi:10.17520/biods.2021443

Abstract

Abstract:

Aim: Understanding the spatiotemporal climate niche dynamics of invasive species not only helps us recognize the trend of change in their niche, but also enables a more accurate prediction of the distribution model for the diffusion dynamics of species. In this study, Ageratina adenophora (Asteraceae), a highly aggressive invasive plant, was selected to analyze whether its climate niche changed and predicted its distribution pattern in future.

Methods: We utilized the species occurrence data and bioclimatic variables to analyze the spatiotemporal climate niche dynamics, pattern of geographical distribution, and main limiting factors of the species based on a niche analysis and species distribution model.

Results: We found that the climate niche of A. adenophora slightly expanded, but remained highly stable. The climate niche of the initial introduction stage (before 1980) was the most stable, and the stability of its climate niche gradually decreased over time. In particular, this species was more inclined to grow in humid (high precipitation of warmest quarter), cold (low mean temperature of driest quarter), and low mean diurnal range habitats in China. The suitable distribution range of A. adenophora increased significantly from 151.77% to 271.14% during the past five decades, and the center of its suitable distribution area exhibited a trend of diffusion to the Northeast (Southwest Guizhou and Southern Sichuan) before 2010, and to the Southwest (Northern Yunnan and Northern Guizhou) after 2010. The stability of the climate niche of this species also tended to decrease as the species diffused to higher latitudes. The suitable distribution range of A. adenophora will increase by 111.97% and can basically disperse to the whole potential suitable distribution range in 2040. Only a small range of suitable habitat in the southeastern Xizang was immune to colonization due to dispersal limitation.

Conclusion: As the suitable distribution area of A. adenophora in China has increased during the past five decades, its climate niche has remained highly stable. Ageratina adenophora could disperse further in the future, and the min temperature of coldest month is the main variable that limits the northward dispersal of A. adenophora.

Key words: biological invasion, Ageratina adenophora, climate niche, potential distribution

Bo Wei, Linshan Liu, Changjun Gu, Haibin Yu, Yili Zhang, Binghua Zhang, Bohao Cui, Dianqing Gong, Yanli Tu. The climate niche is stable and the distribution area of Ageratina adenophora is predicted to expand in China[J]. Biodiv Sci, 2022, 30(8): 21443.

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URL: https://www.biodiversity-science.net/EN/10.17520/biods.2021443

https://www.biodiversity-science.net/EN/Y2022/V30/I8/21443

Figures/Tables 8

Fig. 1 Climate niche dynamics of Ageratina adenophora in China in different temporal (A) and spatial (B)

Table 1 Climate niche stability and expansion of Ageratina adenophora in different periods compared with the native region

	1971-1980	1971-1990	1971-2000	1971-2010	1971-2020
生态位稳定性 Niche stability (NS)	0.995	0.953	0.909	0.881	0.859
生态位扩张 Niche expansion (NE)	0.005	0.047	0.091	0.119	0.141

Fig. 2 Differences of the three bioclimatic variables of Ageratina adenophora between native and China

Table 2 Climate niche stability and expansion of Ageratina adenophora in the different invasive regions compared with the native region

	云南 Yunnan	广西 Guangxi	贵州 Guizhou	四川 Sichuan	重庆 Chongqing	西藏 Xizang
生态位稳定性 Niche stability (NS)	0.959	0.990	0.902	0.832	1.000	1.000
生态位扩张 Niche expansion (NE)	0.041	0.010	0.098	0.168	0	0

Fig. 3 Total change trend of potential distribution of Ageratina adenophora in the past 50 years

Fig. 4 Potential distribution (A-E) and center of gravity (F) of Ageratina adenophora change during different periods in China

Fig. 5 Multivariate environmental similarity surface (MESS), the most dissimilar variable (MoD) of seven bioclimatic variables that affect the distribution of Ageratina adenophora. Bio 1, Annual mean temperature; Bio 2, Mean diurnal range; Bio 6, Min temperature of coldest month; Bio 9, Mean temperature of driest quarter; Bio 12, Annual precipitation; Bio 18, Precipitation of warmest quarter; Bio 19, Precipitation of coldest quarter.

Fig. 6 Potential dispersal dynamics of Ageratina adenophora from 2021 to 2040

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