Vulnerability of two Rhodiola species under climate change in the future

doi:10.17520/biods.2021209

Abstract

Abstract:

Aims: Climate change has a profound impact on global species diversity, especially alpine species diversity. Furthermore, the number of species currently threatened by climate change may increase as climate change. Studying the extinction risk of species under future climate change is of great significance to biodiversity conservation. Rhodiola crenulata and R. chrysanthemifolia are two important medicinal plants distributed on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. However, the potential effects of climate change on each species have not been widely researched. In this study, we investigate the vulnerability of each species to climate change and discuss the relationship between species vulnerability and climatic niche. In addition, we test whether climate change will affect the threat ranking of species in red list.
Methods: In this study, we studied the vulnerability of R. crenulata and R. chrysanthemifolia to climate change using climate-niche factor analysis. We then discussed the influence of climate on the vulnerability of both species change in the context of two “Shared Socioeconomic Pathways” (i.e. SSP2-45 and SSP5-85). Next, we calculated the marginality and specialization of the two species. At the same time, we visualized the climate niches of each species using principal component analysis and analyzed the relationship between climate niches and vulnerabilities of both species.
Results: Our results indicate that the vulnerability of each species is high in the western region of their range, and low in the eastern region of their range. Both species have lower vulnerability to climate change in the Hengduan Mountains, which will serve as a climate refugium for the two species. The vulnerability of the two species under SSP5-85 is higher than that under SSP2-45, and the resource- and energy-intensive socioeconomic pathways (i.e. SSP5-85) will increase the extinction risk of both species in the future. Rhodiola chrysanthemifolia, which is classified as Least Concern on China Species Red List, is more vulnerable to climate change than R. crenulata, which is classified as Endangered. Niche analysis demonstrates that niche marginality and specialization of R. crenulata were lower than that of R. chrysanthemifolia.
Conclusions: Our results suggest that the vulnerability of different species to climate change inhabiting the same region is primarily determined by the climate niche of each species. Climate change may affect the threat ranking of species in red list. It is necessary to consider the impact of climate change when assessing threats to species.

Key words: climate change, vulnerability, endangered species protection, Rhodiola, climate-niche factor analysis

Wenting Wang, Tingting Yang, Lei Jin, Jiamin Jiang. Vulnerability of two Rhodiola species under climate change in the future[J]. Biodiv Sci, 2021, 29(12): 1620-1628.

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URL: https://www.biodiversity-science.net/EN/10.17520/biods.2021209

https://www.biodiversity-science.net/EN/Y2021/V29/I12/1620

Figures/Tables 7

Fig. 1 Occurrence data for two Rhodiola species studied on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and its adjacent areas. The area in the red box is the study area. The boundary data of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is downloaded from National Earth System Science Data Center, National Science & Technology Infrastructure of China (http://www.geodata.cn).

Table 1 Sensitivity factors of Rhodiola crenulata and R. chrysanthemifolia, as well as departure factors and vulnerability factors under different shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). The two widest coefficients in each column are shown in bold.

生物气候 Bioclimate	大花红景天 R. crenulate					菊叶红景天 R. chrysanthemifolia
	敏感性Sensitivity	偏离性 Departure		脆弱性 Vulnerability		敏感性 Sensitivity	偏离性 Departure		脆弱性 Vulnerability
	敏感性Sensitivity	SSP2-45	SSP5-85	SSP2-45	SSP5-85	敏感性 Sensitivity	SSP2-45	SSP5-85	SSP2-45	SSP5-85
平均日温差 Mean diurnal range	2.4	0.24	0.33	1.7	1.79	2.43	0.22	0.3	1.7	1.8
等温性 Isothermality	3.6	0.17	0.23	2	2.1	4.78	0.17	0.2	2.4	2.4
最暖季平均气温 Mean temperature of warmest quarter	6.2	0.28	0.42	2.8	2.97	11.6	0.28	0.4	3.9	4
季节性降水量 Precipitation seasonality	2	0.09	0.12	1.5	1.5	2.65	0.07	0.1	1.7	1.7
最暖季降水量 Precipitation of warmest quarter	13	0.08	0.12	3.7	3.79	17.1	0.08	0.1	4.3	4.4
最冷季降水量 Precipitation of coldest quarter	1.5	0.03	0.04	1.3	1.26	2.55	0.02	0	1.6	1.6

Table 2 Total indices of specialization, marginality and sensitivity of Rhodiola crenulata and R. chrysanthemifolia as well as total indices of exposure and vulnerability under different shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) scenarios

物种 Species	边缘性 Marginality	特化性 Specialization	敏感性 Sensitivity	暴露性 Exposure		脆弱性 Vulnerability
物种 Species	边缘性 Marginality	特化性 Specialization	敏感性 Sensitivity	SSP2-45	SSP5-85	SSP2-45	SSP5-85
大花红景天 R. crenulate	0.84	1.34	2.18	0.42	0.61	1.47	1.45
菊叶红景天 R. chrysanthemifolia	1.01	1.60	2.62	0.41	0.58	1.61	1.63

Fig. 2 Sensitivity of two Rhodiola species on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and its adjacent areas. The black dots in figures represent sample distributions of two Rhodiola species, the demarcation point between red and green in the legend represents the median spatial sensitivity of the species.

Fig. 3 Exposure of two Rhodiola species on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and its adjacent areas under future climate change (shared socioeconomic pathway, SSP2-45): (a) R. crenulata and (b) R. chrysanthemifolia; and the increment of exposure of two Rhodiola species under two SSPs scenarios (SSP2-45 and SSP5-85): (c) R. crenulata and (d) R. chrysanthemifolia. The black dots in figures represent sample distributions of two Rhodiola species. The demarcation point between red and green in the legend of (a) and (b) represent the median spatial exposure of the species.

Fig. 4 Vulnerability of two Rhodiola species on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and its adjacent areas under future climate change (shared socioeconomic pathway, SSP2-45): (a) R. crenulata and (b) R. chrysanthemifolia; and the increment of vulnerability of two Rhodiola species under two shared SSPs scenarios (SSP2-45 and SSP5-85): (c) R. crenulata and (d) R. chrysanthemifolia. The black dots in figures represent sample distributions of two Rhodiola species. The demarcation point between red and purple in the legend of (a) and (b) represent the median spatial vulnerability of the species.

Fig. 5 Comparison of the climatic niches of Rhodiola crenulata and R. chrysanthemifolia distribution on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and its adjacent areas. Red showing the climatic niches of R. crenulata and green showing the climatic niches of R. chrysanthemifolia; the overlap of the climatic niches between the two species showed in blue. The area enclosed by the red line indicates the climatic niche of the study area.

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