生物多样性 ›› 2026, Vol. 34 ›› Issue (5): 25482.  DOI: 10.17520/biods.2025482  cstr: 32101.14.biods.2025482

• 研究报告: 植物多样性 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于混合效应Cox比例风险模型评估气候与土壤对热带引种植物存活的影响

周丽芳1,2, 慈秀芹1*, 陈筠灵1,2, 苏艳萍1, 申健勇1, 李捷1*   

  1. 1. 中国科学院西双版纳热带植物园综合保护中心植物系统发育与多样性保护研究组/云南省热带雨林与亚洲象保护重点实验室, 云南勐腊 666303; 2. 中国科学院大学, 北京 100049
  • 收稿日期:2025-11-28 修回日期:2026-03-27 接受日期:2026-04-28 出版日期:2026-05-20 发布日期:2026-07-01
  • 通讯作者: 李捷

Assessing plant survival in tropical botanic gardens based on climatic and soil factors using mixed-effects Cox proportional hazards models

Lifang Zhou1,2, Xiuqin Ci1*, Junling Chen1,2, Yanping Su1, Jianyong Shen1, Jie Li1*   

  1. 1 Plant Phylogenetics and Conservation Group, Center for Integrative Conservation & Yunnan Key Laboratory for the Conservation of Tropical Rainforests and Asian Elephants, Xishuangbanna Tropical Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Mengla, Yunnan 666303, China 

    2 University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China

  • Received:2025-11-28 Revised:2026-03-27 Accepted:2026-04-28 Online:2026-05-20 Published:2026-07-01
  • Contact: Jie Li

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摘要： 引种植物能否长期存活是评估迁地保护有效性的关键。为探究引种植物在热带植物园户外存活状况及环境因子的影响, 本研究以中国科学院西双版纳热带植物园引种的1,232个物种共2,234株植物为研究对象, 基于混合效应Cox比例风险模型量化评估了热带植物园与植物分布地之间气候与土壤差异对其存活的独立影响。结果表明, 在气候因子驱动的模型中, 基于物种分布地气候中位数构建的模型获得最高经验支持, 生长型、年均温和最冷月最低温对引种植物存活具有主要影响, 降水因子(年降水量、最干月降水量和最湿月降水量)的影响相对较弱但也达到显著水平, 且草本植物的死亡风险低于木本植物。在土壤因子驱动的模型中, 基于种源地土壤差异构建的模型获得最高经验支持, 土壤表层有机碳含量和碎石体积百分比是影响引种植物存活的主要因子, 且草本植物的死亡风险高于木本植物。在制定引种策略时, 优先考虑热带植物园与物种分布地气候特征和种源地土壤条件的匹配性, 可提高引种植物存活率并提升热带植物园迁地保护成效。

关键词: 引种植物存活, 混合效应Cox比例风险模型, 气候因子, 土壤因子, 热带

Abstract

Aims: This study examined the influence of environmental factors on the survival of introduced plants in a botanical garden, focusing on the effects of climate and soil differences between the botanical garden and the native ranges of the plants. 

Methods: We constructed mixed-effects Cox proportional hazards models to quantify the effects of climatic and edaphic differences on plant survival based on a database comprising 2,234 individuals from 1,232 introduced species at the Xishuangbanna Tropical Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences. 

Results: In climate-driven models, those based on the median values of climatic variables across the species’ overall distribution ranges demonstrated the strongest empirical support (ΔAIC ≤ 3). In addition to species growth form, these models highlighted significant influence of mean annual temperature and minimum temperature of coldest month in the ranges of species studied, while precipitation of driest month, precipitation of wettest month, and annual precipitation in the ranges of species exhibited weaker yet statistically significant effects. Herbal plants showed a lower mortality risk than woody plants. In soil-driven models, those based on provenance soil conditions yielded the best performance. Topsoil organic carbon and gravel content emerged as the primary edaphic factors influencing survival. Herbal plants showed a higher mortality risk than woody plants. 

Conclusion: Climatic and edaphic factors substantially impact the survival of introduced tropical plants. Key drivers include the mean annual temperature, minimum temperature of coldest month, topsoil organic carbon, and topsoil gravel content in species’ native range, in addition to species growth form. Botanical gardens should prioritize aligning the overall climatic distribution of species and provenance edaphic conditions when planning introductions to enhance survival rates and the effectiveness of living collections.

Key words: ex-situ plant survival, mixed-effects Cox proportional hazards model, climatic factors, soil factors, tropics

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