生物多样性 ›› 2018, Vol. 26 ›› Issue (2): 138-148.DOI: 10.17520/biods.2017188

• 研究报告 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于MaxEnt模型的三江源区草地濒危保护植物热点区识别

武晓宇1,2, 董世魁1,*(), 刘世梁1, 刘全儒3, 韩雨晖1, 张晓蕾1, 苏旭坤1, 赵海迪1, 冯憬1   

  1. 1 .北京师范大学环境学院, 北京 100875
    2 .北京巧女公益基金会, 北京 100015
    3 .北京师范大学生命科学学院, 北京 100875
  • 收稿日期:2017-06-26 接受日期:2017-12-01 出版日期:2018-02-20 发布日期:2018-05-05
  • 通讯作者: 董世魁
  • 作者简介:# 共同第一作者
  • 基金资助:
    国家重点研发计划专项课题(2016YFC0501906)和水环境模拟国家重点实验室重点项目

Identifying priority areas for grassland endangered plant species in the Sanjiangyuan Nature Reserve based on the MaxEnt model

Xiaoyu Wu1,2, Shikui Dong1,*(), Shiliang Liu1, Quanru Liu3, Yuhui Han1, Xiaolei Zhang1, Xukun Su1, Haidi Zhao1, Jing Feng1   

  1. 1 School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875
    2 Beijing Qiaonyu Foundation, Beijing 100015
    3 College of Life Sciences, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875
  • Received:2017-06-26 Accepted:2017-12-01 Online:2018-02-20 Published:2018-05-05
  • Contact: Dong Shikui
  • About author:# Co-first authors

摘要:

三江源地处全球生物多样性热点之一的青藏高原腹地, 是高寒草地生物多样性的集中分布区。但过去几十年中, 人为干扰和气候变化等因素导致高寒草地严重退化, 草地生物多样性受到极大威胁。本研究利用最大熵(MaxEnt)模型模拟了三江源区40种濒危保护植物当前及未来气候变化情景下的热点分布区。根据最大熵模型估计结果统计, 目前三江源濒危保护植物的热点区面积89,438 km2, 主要分布于三江源东部和南部, 其中濒危物种大于30种的最热点地区面积485 km2, 主要分布于囊谦县、玉树市、班玛县、久治县和河南县。未来在增温增湿的气候变化情景下, 最大熵模型模拟的三江源区草地濒危保护植物的热点区将向西北部扩大, 有利于植物多样性的维持和提升。然而, 模型模拟还发现, 在囊谦县、玉树市、班玛县、久治县和河南县等县市, 均有濒危保护植物大于25种以上的热点区域未被重点保护区覆盖, 总面积为4,423 km2。这一区域被划分为可开展畜牧生产活动的一般保护区, 受到人为干扰的可能性较大, 应予以更多关注与保护。

关键词: 生物多样性, 气候变化, 保护优先区, 最大熵模型

Abstract:

Located in southern Qinghai Province in China, Sanjiangyuan is the source area for the Yangtze River, Yellow River, and Lancang River, and a worldwide biodiversity hotspot. Sanjiangyuan was degraded through human disturbance and climate change, which has led to a dramatic loss of the biodiversity of rangeland resources. We conducted field surveys based on species coordinates during 2014 and 2015. We used the MaxEnt model to predict distribution of 40 endangered plant species in Sanjiangyuan using the species coordinate data and bioclimatic data collected from the WorldClim database. From this, we obtained hotspots of endangered plant species in Sanjiangyuan under current and future climatic conditions. Results showed that hotspot areas of endangered plant species in Sanjiangyuan estimated using the MaxEnt model were approximately 89,438 km2, and mainly located in the east and south of the reserve. Among these hotspots, those that included more than 30 endangered plant species totalled 485 km2, and were mainly found in Nangqian County, Yushu City, Banma County, Jiuzhi County, and Henan County. The climate will become warmer and wetter in Sanjiangyuan in the future, which would benefit biodiversity and expand hotspot areas to the northwest. However, problems associated with planning the reserve remain. Nearly 4,423 km2 of hotspot areas have not been protected in the key reserve, including in Nangqian County, Yushu City, Banma County, Jiuzhi County, and Henan County. In these areas grazing is permitted, which might lead to human disturbances. We suggest policy makers focus more attention on these areas and increase conservation efforts.

Key words: biodiversity, climate change, prior conservation area, MaxEnt model