Biodiv Sci ›› 2019, Vol. 27 ›› Issue (6): 595-606. DOI: 10.17520/biods.2019085
• Original Papers: Plant Diversity • Previous Articles Next Articles
Zhang Xiaoling1,2,Li Yichao2,Wang Yunyun2,Cai Hongyu2,Zeng Hui1,*(),Wang Zhiheng2,*(
)
Received:
2019-03-18
Accepted:
2019-05-06
Online:
2019-06-20
Published:
2019-06-20
Contact:
Zeng Hui,Wang Zhiheng
Zhang Xiaoling, Li Yichao, Wang Yunyun, Cai Hongyu, Zeng Hui, Wang Zhiheng. Influence of future climate change in suitable habitats of tea in different countries[J]. Biodiv Sci, 2019, 27(6): 595-606.
环境变量 Environmental variables | 平均重要性 Mean importance |
---|---|
最冷季平均温 Mean temperature of coldest quarter | 0.36 |
最暖季降水量 Precipitation of warmest quarter | 0.27 |
降水季节性 Precipitation seasonality | 0.09 |
平均气温日较差 Mean diurnal temperature range | 0.06 |
最暖月最高温 Max temperature of warmest month | 0.04 |
最干月降水量 Precipitation of driest month | 0.03 |
土壤酸碱度 Soil pH | 0.00 |
Table 1 Mean importance of seven environmental variables
环境变量 Environmental variables | 平均重要性 Mean importance |
---|---|
最冷季平均温 Mean temperature of coldest quarter | 0.36 |
最暖季降水量 Precipitation of warmest quarter | 0.27 |
降水季节性 Precipitation seasonality | 0.09 |
平均气温日较差 Mean diurnal temperature range | 0.06 |
最暖月最高温 Max temperature of warmest month | 0.04 |
最干月降水量 Precipitation of driest month | 0.03 |
土壤酸碱度 Soil pH | 0.00 |
气候情景 Scenarios | 新增的分布区 Gain | 丧失的分布区 Loss | 适宜分布面积的净变化 Net changes in suitable area |
---|---|---|---|
RCP2.6 | 9.1 | 18.6 | -9.5 |
RCP8.5 | 14.2 | 31.1 | -16.9 |
Table 2 Predicted suitable area changes of tea (%) for the 2070s
气候情景 Scenarios | 新增的分布区 Gain | 丧失的分布区 Loss | 适宜分布面积的净变化 Net changes in suitable area |
---|---|---|---|
RCP2.6 | 9.1 | 18.6 | -9.5 |
RCP8.5 | 14.2 | 31.1 | -16.9 |
国家 Countries | 当前适宜分布区 Current suitable area (km2) | 适宜分布面积变化 Changes in suitable area (km2) | 适宜分布面积变化比例 Changes in suitable area (%) | 产量 (2016年) Production (t) | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RCP2.6 | RCP8.5 | RCP2.6 | RCP8.5 | |||
中国 China | 2,607,924 | 69,384 | 135,088 | 2.7 | 5.2 | 2,414,802 |
印度 India | 315,323 | -9,241 | -25,162 | -2.9 | -8.0 | 1,252,174 |
肯尼亚 Kenya | 17,994 | -4,470 | -5,834 | -24.8 | -32.4 | 473,000 |
斯里兰卡 Sri Lanka | 9,356 | -232 | -3,323 | -2.5 | -35.5 | 349,308 |
土耳其 Turkey | 2,765 | 654 | -1,619 | 23.7 | -58.6 | 243,000 |
越南 Vietnam | 75,599 | -43,657 | -55,005 | -57.8 | -72.8 | 240,000 |
印度尼西亚 Indonesia | 260,214 | -31,551 | -94,931 | -12.1 | -36.5 | 144,015 |
缅甸 Myanmar | 38,221 | -28,938 | -35,895 | -75.7 | -93.9 | 102,404 |
阿根廷 Argentina | 32,876 | -31,085 | -31,503 | -94.6 | -95.8 | 89,609 |
日本 Japan | 279,395 | 27,910 | 87,979 | 10.0 | 31.5 | 80,200 |
Table 3 Changes of suitable area in major tea-producing countries under different future climate scenarios
国家 Countries | 当前适宜分布区 Current suitable area (km2) | 适宜分布面积变化 Changes in suitable area (km2) | 适宜分布面积变化比例 Changes in suitable area (%) | 产量 (2016年) Production (t) | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RCP2.6 | RCP8.5 | RCP2.6 | RCP8.5 | |||
中国 China | 2,607,924 | 69,384 | 135,088 | 2.7 | 5.2 | 2,414,802 |
印度 India | 315,323 | -9,241 | -25,162 | -2.9 | -8.0 | 1,252,174 |
肯尼亚 Kenya | 17,994 | -4,470 | -5,834 | -24.8 | -32.4 | 473,000 |
斯里兰卡 Sri Lanka | 9,356 | -232 | -3,323 | -2.5 | -35.5 | 349,308 |
土耳其 Turkey | 2,765 | 654 | -1,619 | 23.7 | -58.6 | 243,000 |
越南 Vietnam | 75,599 | -43,657 | -55,005 | -57.8 | -72.8 | 240,000 |
印度尼西亚 Indonesia | 260,214 | -31,551 | -94,931 | -12.1 | -36.5 | 144,015 |
缅甸 Myanmar | 38,221 | -28,938 | -35,895 | -75.7 | -93.9 | 102,404 |
阿根廷 Argentina | 32,876 | -31,085 | -31,503 | -94.6 | -95.8 | 89,609 |
日本 Japan | 279,395 | 27,910 | 87,979 | 10.0 | 31.5 | 80,200 |
Fig. 4 Top ten countries with the largest changes in suitable area for tea under different future climate scenarios. (a) Loss suitable area; (b) Gain suitable area.
土地覆盖类型 Land cover | 新增适宜分布区的来源 Source of newly suitable areas (%) | |
---|---|---|
RCP2.6 | RCP8.5 | |
森林 Forest | 46.9 | 41.5 |
灌木 Shrub | 5.4 | 8.0 |
草地 Grassland | 15.9 | 19.4 |
耕地 Farmland | 20.0 | 16.4 |
建设用地 Urban | 0.5 | 0.3 |
其他 Others | 11.2 | 14.4 |
Table 4 The source of newly suitable areas for tea cultivation under different future climate scenarios
土地覆盖类型 Land cover | 新增适宜分布区的来源 Source of newly suitable areas (%) | |
---|---|---|
RCP2.6 | RCP8.5 | |
森林 Forest | 46.9 | 41.5 |
灌木 Shrub | 5.4 | 8.0 |
草地 Grassland | 15.9 | 19.4 |
耕地 Farmland | 20.0 | 16.4 |
建设用地 Urban | 0.5 | 0.3 |
其他 Others | 11.2 | 14.4 |
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