生物多样性 ›› 2003, Vol. 11 ›› Issue (4): 340-350.DOI: 10.17520/biods.2003042

• 论文 • 上一篇    

种群生存力分析:准确性和保护应用

李义明   

  1. (中国科学院动物研究所,北京 100080)
  • 收稿日期:2002-11-26 修回日期:2003-06-17 出版日期:2003-07-20 发布日期:2003-07-20
  • 通讯作者: 李义明

Population viability analysis in conservation biology: precision and uses

LI Yi-Ming   

  1. Institute of Zoology,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100080
  • Received:2002-11-26 Revised:2003-06-17 Online:2003-07-20 Published:2003-07-20
  • Contact: LI Yi-Ming

摘要: 目前已提出了五类估计濒危物种绝灭风险的种群生存力分析模型,即:分析模型、单种群确定性模型、单种群随机模型、异质种群模型和显空间模型。模型的选择取决于物种的生活史特征和可用的数据。与用于保护实践的其他方法相比,种群生存力分析(PVA)是相对准确的量化工具。然而,一些濒危物种种群统计学数据质量差和种群动态的有关假说模糊不清可能影响到模型预测的准确性,因此,要谨慎地使用PVA。在西方国家, PVA在濒危物种保护计划和管理中应用越来越广泛。它主要用于:(1)预测濒危物种未来的种群大小;(2)估计一定时间内物种的绝灭风险;(3)评估一套保护措施,确定哪个能使种群的存活时间最长;(4)探索不同假说对小种群动态的影响;(5)指导濒危动物野外数据的搜集工作。我国的濒危物种很多,然而开展PVA研究的濒危物种却很少。应大力发展适合于模拟我国特有濒危物种及其保护问题的PVA模型。

关键词: 热点地区, GAP分析, 生物多样性保护

Abstract: Five types of population viability analysis (PVA) models have been developed for estimating extinction risk of endangered species. They are analytic model, deterministic single-population model, stochastic single-population model, metapopulation model and spatially explicit model. The choice of PVA model types for endangered species depends on life history of the species studied and data available on the species. Compared with other tools in conservation practice, PVA is relatively precise and quantitative tool. However, poor quality of data and unclear assumptions on populations of some endangered species could influence precision of predictions of PVA models, therefore, PVA models should be used with cautions. PVA models have been increasingly used in conservation plans and management of endangered species in western countries. It has been used for (1) predicting future population size of endangered species; (2) evaluating extinction risk of endangered species in a given time; (3) assessing conservation options and determining which options will make endangered species persistence longer; (4) exploring effects of assumptions on small population demography,and (5) guiding field data collection for endangered species. Few PVA studies have been conducted on endangered species in China, compared with the disproportionally high number of endangered species in China. There is an urgent need for building PVA models specifically for endemic endangered species and conservation issues in China.

Key words: hot spot analysis, GAP analysis, biodiversity conservation