Biodiversity Science ›› 2018, Vol. 26 ›› Issue (1): 89-95.doi: 10.17520/biods.2017228

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Methodological assessment on scenarios and models of biodiversity and ecosystem services and impacts on China within the IPBES framework

Yuxue Pan, Yu Tian*(), Jing Xu, Boya Zhang, Junsheng Li   

  1. Biodiversity Research Center, Chinese Academy of Environmental Sciences, Beijing 100012
  • Received:2017-08-28 Accepted:2017-11-05 Online:2018-05-05
  • Tian Yu
  • About author:

    # Co-first authors

With increasing international concern for biodiversity conservation, biodiversity and ecosystem services-related scenarios and models have become the foci of international processes and treaties. The Methodological Assessment on Scenarios and Models of Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services was included in the 2014-2018 Work Program of Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) as one of the first rounds of rapid assessment activities. The assessment report and its Summary for Policymakers were adopted at the Fourth Session of the IPBES Plenary. This research summarizes the assessment report through its main contents and conclusions based on the IPBES framework, and also explores the relationship between IPBES deliverables and other international processes, and possible impacts on policy making in China. The report provided a comprehensive analysis of the existing scenarios and models of biodiversity and ecosystem services, and also provided corresponding solutions for coping with data and knowledge gaps, as well as guidance for the development, use, and optimization of scenarios and models. IPBES assessments have been ushering in the development of biodiversity science and ecosystem services, offering an efficient platform for countries to undertake communication, and provide trade-offs and gains in the field of biodiversity to maximize their own interests. As a developing country with rich biodiversity, China is bound to actively participate in activities of IPBES and use its own voice, which would be an ideal way to deal with the future development of IPBES.

Key words: biodiversity, ecosystem services, scenarios, models, IPBES

Table 1

Application practices of scenarios and models of biodiversity and ecosystem services (adopted from Ferrier et al, 2016)"

Application at different spatial scales
全球 Global 国家: 英国
National: United Kingdom
区域: 涵盖柬埔寨、中国、老挝、泰国和越南
Regional: analysis covers Cambodia, China, Laos, Thailand and Viet Nam
国家: 南非
National: Coastal fisheries of South Africa
Issues addressed using scenarios and models
Are the Aichi Biodiversity Targets likely to be attained by 2020? What is needed to achieve the strategic vision for 2050 of the Convention on Biological Diversity?
50年后, 英国的生态系统、生态系统服务和服务价值将会出现怎样的变化?
What changes might occur in ecosystems, ecosystem services and the values of these services over the next 50 years in the United Kingdom?
评估大坝工程, 特别是湄公河干流的工程造成的社会和环境影响
Evaluating social and environmental impacts of dam construction, especially in the main stream of the Mekong River
Implementation of policy on sustainable management of fisheries
Global Biodiversity Outlook 4 (2014)
United Kingdom National Ecosystem Assessment (2011)
Strategic Environmental Assessment of Hydropower on the Mekong Mainstream
South African Fisheries Management
Time horizons
Present-2020, 2050
2060年 2060 2030年 2030 至2034年, 每2-4年更新一次
Present-2034, updated every 2-4 years
Decision-support tools
无 None 无, 但正在开发工具
None, but tools are being developed
Strategic environmental assessment methods
Management strategy evaluation
优势 Strengths (1)在短期项目中创造性使用推断方法 ;
(2) 清晰的决策背景和授权环境。
(1) Novel use of extrapolations for nearterm projections;
(2) Clear decision context and authorizing environment
Focusing on synergies and trade-offs between ecosystem services and on monetary evaluation
(2)利益攸关方的大力参与(1) Clear decision context and authorizing environment;
(2) Strong involvement of stakeholders
(2)政策和管理建议清晰, 且定期更新
(1) Clear decision context and authorizing environment;
(2) Policy and management advice clear and updated regularly
劣势 Weaknesses (1)重点关注全球尺度评估, 不适于国家和地方决策背景;
(2)缺乏普适性的情景和驱动因素模型, 难以开展跨目标分析
(1) Focusing on global scale limits applicability to many national and local decision contexts;
(2) Lack of common scenarios and models of drivers makes analysis across targets difficult
(1) Heavy reliance on qualitative estimates of impacts of drivers;
(2) Biodiversity at species level weakly represented (only birds)
(1)情景过于特殊, 尤其是使用的经验模型, 因此很难推广或外推到更大尺度;
(1) Highly context-specific, especially the empirical models used, and therefore difficult to generalize or extrapolate to larger scales;
(2) Mekong River Commission recommendations non-binding
(1) Highly context-specific;
(2) Several key drivers (e.g., climate change) not considered
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