Biodiversity Science ›› 2018, Vol. 26 ›› Issue (1): 89-95.doi: 10.17520/biods.2017228

• Forum • Previous Article     Next Article

Methodological assessment on scenarios and models of biodiversity and ecosystem services and impacts on China within the IPBES framework

Yuxue Pan, Yu Tian*(), Jing Xu, Boya Zhang, Junsheng Li   

  1. Biodiversity Research Center, Chinese Academy of Environmental Sciences, Beijing 100012
  • Received:2017-08-28 Accepted:2017-11-05 Online:2018-05-05
  • Tian Yu
  • About author:

    # Co-first authors

With increasing international concern for biodiversity conservation, biodiversity and ecosystem services-related scenarios and models have become the foci of international processes and treaties. The Methodological Assessment on Scenarios and Models of Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services was included in the 2014-2018 Work Program of Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) as one of the first rounds of rapid assessment activities. The assessment report and its Summary for Policymakers were adopted at the Fourth Session of the IPBES Plenary. This research summarizes the assessment report through its main contents and conclusions based on the IPBES framework, and also explores the relationship between IPBES deliverables and other international processes, and possible impacts on policy making in China. The report provided a comprehensive analysis of the existing scenarios and models of biodiversity and ecosystem services, and also provided corresponding solutions for coping with data and knowledge gaps, as well as guidance for the development, use, and optimization of scenarios and models. IPBES assessments have been ushering in the development of biodiversity science and ecosystem services, offering an efficient platform for countries to undertake communication, and provide trade-offs and gains in the field of biodiversity to maximize their own interests. As a developing country with rich biodiversity, China is bound to actively participate in activities of IPBES and use its own voice, which would be an ideal way to deal with the future development of IPBES.

Key words: biodiversity, ecosystem services, scenarios, models, IPBES

Table 1

Application practices of scenarios and models of biodiversity and ecosystem services (adopted from Ferrier et al, 2016)"

Application at different spatial scales
全球 Global 国家: 英国
National: United Kingdom
区域: 涵盖柬埔寨、中国、老挝、泰国和越南
Regional: analysis covers Cambodia, China, Laos, Thailand and Viet Nam
国家: 南非
National: Coastal fisheries of South Africa
Issues addressed using scenarios and models
Are the Aichi Biodiversity Targets likely to be attained by 2020? What is needed to achieve the strategic vision for 2050 of the Convention on Biological Diversity?
50年后, 英国的生态系统、生态系统服务和服务价值将会出现怎样的变化?
What changes might occur in ecosystems, ecosystem services and the values of these services over the next 50 years in the United Kingdom?
评估大坝工程, 特别是湄公河干流的工程造成的社会和环境影响
Evaluating social and environmental impacts of dam construction, especially in the main stream of the Mekong River
Implementation of policy on sustainable management of fisheries
Global Biodiversity Outlook 4 (2014)
United Kingdom National Ecosystem Assessment (2011)
Strategic Environmental Assessment of Hydropower on the Mekong Mainstream
South African Fisheries Management
Time horizons
Present-2020, 2050
2060年 2060 2030年 2030 至2034年, 每2-4年更新一次
Present-2034, updated every 2-4 years
Decision-support tools
无 None 无, 但正在开发工具
None, but tools are being developed
Strategic environmental assessment methods
Management strategy evaluation
优势 Strengths (1)在短期项目中创造性使用推断方法 ;
(2) 清晰的决策背景和授权环境。
(1) Novel use of extrapolations for nearterm projections;
(2) Clear decision context and authorizing environment
Focusing on synergies and trade-offs between ecosystem services and on monetary evaluation
(2)利益攸关方的大力参与(1) Clear decision context and authorizing environment;
(2) Strong involvement of stakeholders
(2)政策和管理建议清晰, 且定期更新
(1) Clear decision context and authorizing environment;
(2) Policy and management advice clear and updated regularly
劣势 Weaknesses (1)重点关注全球尺度评估, 不适于国家和地方决策背景;
(2)缺乏普适性的情景和驱动因素模型, 难以开展跨目标分析
(1) Focusing on global scale limits applicability to many national and local decision contexts;
(2) Lack of common scenarios and models of drivers makes analysis across targets difficult
(1) Heavy reliance on qualitative estimates of impacts of drivers;
(2) Biodiversity at species level weakly represented (only birds)
(1)情景过于特殊, 尤其是使用的经验模型, 因此很难推广或外推到更大尺度;
(1) Highly context-specific, especially the empirical models used, and therefore difficult to generalize or extrapolate to larger scales;
(2) Mekong River Commission recommendations non-binding
(1) Highly context-specific;
(2) Several key drivers (e.g., climate change) not considered
1 Christensen V, Walters CJ, Pauly D (2005) Ecopath with Ecosim: A User’s Guide. Fisheries Centre, University of British Columbia, Vancouver.
2 Díaz S, Demissew S, Carabias J (2015a) The IPBES conceptual framework—connecting nature and people. Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, 14, 1-16.
3 Díaz S, Demissew S, Joly C, Lonsdale WM, Larigauderie A (2015b) A Rosetta Stone for nature’s benefits to people. PLoS Biology, 13, e1002040.
4 Ferrier S, Ninan KN, Leadley P, Alkemade R, Acosta LA, Akcakaya HR, Brotons L, Cheung WWL, Christensen V, Harhash KA, Kabubo-Mariara J, Lundquist C, Obersteiner M, Pereira HM, Peterson G, Pichs-Madruga R, Ravindranath N, Rondinini C, Wintle BA (2016) The Methodological Assessment Report on Scenarios and Models of Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services. Secretariat of the Intergovernmental Platform for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services, Bonn, Germany.
5 Fu BJ, Yu DD, Lü N (2017) An indicator system for biodiversity and ecosystem services evaluation in China. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 37, 341-348.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[傅伯杰, 于丹丹, 吕楠 (2017) 中国生物多样性与生态系统服务评估指标体系. 生态学报, 37, 341-348.]
6 Hotes S, Opgenoorth L (2014) Trust and control at the Science-Policy Interface in IPBES. BioScience, 64, 277-278.
7 Hove SVD, Chabason L (2009) The Debate on an Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) Exploring Gaps and Needs. Institut Du Développement Durable Et Des Relations Internationales,
8 O’Neill BC, Kriegler E, Riahi K, Ebi KL, Hallegatte S, Carter TR, Mathur R, Vuuren DPV (2014) A new scenario framework for climate change research: the concept of shared socioeconomic pathways. Climatic Change, 122, 401-414.
9 Peh KSH, Balmford A, Bradbury RB, Brown C, Butchart SHM, Hughes FMR, Stattersfield A, Thomas DHL, Walpole M, Bayliss J, Gowing D, Jones JPG, Lewis SL, Mulligan M, Pandeya B, Stratford C, Thompson JR, Turner K, Vira B, Willcock S, Birch JC (2013) TESSA: a toolkit for rapid assessment of ecosystem services at sites of biodiversity conservation importance. Ecosystem Services, 5, 51-57.
10 Sharp R, Tallis HT, Ricketts T, Guerry AD, Wood SA, Chaplin-Kramer R, Nelson E, Ennaanay D, Wolny S, Olwero N, Vigerstol K, Pennington D, Mendoza G, Aukema J, Foster J, Forrest J, Cameron D, Arkema K, Lonsdorf E, Kennedy C, Verutes G, Kim CK, Guannel G, Papenfus M, Toft J, Marsik M, Bernhardt J, Griffin R, Glowinski K, Chaumont N, Perelman A, Lacayo M, Mandle L, Hamel P, Vogl AL (2015) InVEST + VERSION + User’s Guide. The Natural Capital Project, Stanford University, University of Minnesota, The Nature Conservancy, and World Wildlife Fund.
11 Stehfest E, Vuuren D, Kram T, Bouwman A, Alkemade R, Bakkenes M, Biemans H, Bouwman A, Elzen M, Janse J, Lucas P, van Minnen J, Müller M, Prins A (2014) Integrated Assessment of Global Environmental Change With IMAGE 3.0: Model Description and Policy Applications. PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, The Hague.
12 Thaman R, Lyver P, Mpande R, Perez E, Cariño J, Takeuchi K (2013) The Contribution of Indigenous and Local Knowledge Systems to IPBES: Building Synergies With Science. United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization, Paris.
13 Tian Y, Lan CZ, Xu J, Li XS, Li JS (2016), Assessment of pollination and China’s implementation strategies within the IPBES framework. Biodiversity Science, 24, 1084-1090.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[田瑜, 兰存子, 徐靖, 李秀山, 李俊生 (2016) IPBES框架下的全球传粉评估及我国对策. 生物多样性, 24, 1084-1090.]
14 Tian Y, Li JS, Lan CZ, Li XS (2015) Interpretation of the work programme of Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services for the period 2014-2018. Biodiversity Science, 23, 543-549.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[田瑜, 李俊生, 兰存子, 李秀山 (2015) 生物多样性和生态系统服务政府间科学-政策平台2014-2018年工作方案解析. 生物多样性, 23, 543-549.]
15 Trisurat Y (2013) Ecological Assessment: Assessing Conditions and Trends of Ecosystem Services of Thadee Watershed, Nakhon Si Thammarat Province. Final Report Submitted to the ECO-BEST Project. Bangkok, Faculty of Forestry, Kasetsart University. (in Thai with English abstract)
16 Tucker GM, Mcconville AJ, Mccoy K, Brink P, Braat LC, Arets E, Bräuer I, Gerdes H, Grunig M (2009) Scenarios and models for exploring future trends of biodiversity and ecosystem services changes. Final Report to the European Commission, DG Environment on Contract. Nuclear Fusion, 16, 16-17.
17 Villa F, Bagstad KJ, Voigt B, Johnson GW, Portela R, Honzák M, Batker D (2014) A methodology for adaptable and robust ecosystem services assessment. PLoS ONE, 9, e91001.
18 Villarreal ML, Norman LM, Boykin KG, Wallace CSA (2013) Biodiversity losses and conservation trade-offs: assessing future urban growth scenarios for a North American trade corridor. International Journal of Biodiversity Science, Ecosystem Services & Management, 9, 90-103.
19 Yu DD, Lü N, Fu BJ (2017) Indicator systems and methods for evaluating biodiversity and ecosystem services. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 37, 349-357.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[于丹丹, 吕楠, 傅伯杰 (2017) 生物多样性与生态系统服务评估指标与方法. 生态学报, 37, 349-357.]
20 Yue TX (2017) Principles and Methods for Simulating Earth’s Surface Systems. Science Press, Beijing.(in Chinese)
[岳天祥 (2017) 地球表层系统模拟分析原理与方法. 科学出版社, 北京.]
21 Yue TX, Liu Y, Zhao MW, Du ZP, Zhao N (2016) A fundamental theorem of Earth’s surface modelling. Environmental Earth Sciences, 75, 751.
22 Yue TX, Wang YF, Du ZP, Zhao MW, Zhang LL, Zhao N, Lou M, Larocqued GR, Wilson J (2016) Analyzing the uncertainty of estimating forest carbon stocks in China. Biogeosciences, 13, 3991-4004.
[1] Xing Yuan, Wu Xiaoping, Ouyang Shan, Zhang Junqian, Xu Jing, Yin Senlu, Xie Zhicai. Assessment of macrobenthos biodiversity and potential human-induced stressors in the Ganjiang River system [J]. Biodiv Sci, 2019, 27(6): 648-657.
[2] Zou Anlong, Ma Suhui, Ni Xiaofeng, Cai Qiong, Li Xiuping, Ji Chengjun. Response of understory plant diversity to nitrogen deposition in Quercus wutaishanica forests of Mt. Dongling, Beijing [J]. Biodiv Sci, 2019, 27(6): 607-618.
[3] Liu Yan, Yang Yushuang. Importance of conservation priority areas for bryophyte biodiversity in Chongqing [J]. Biodiv Sci, 2019, 27(6): 677-682.
[4] Gui Xujun, Lian Juyu, Zhang Ruyun, Li Yanpeng, Shen Hao, Ni Yunlong, Ye Wanhui. Vertical structure and its biodiversity in a subtropical evergreen broad- leaved forest at Dinghushan in Guangdong Province, China [J]. Biodiv Sci, 2019, 27(6): 619-629.
[5] Mu Jun, Wang Jiaojiao, Zhang Lei, Li Yunbo, Li Zhumei, Su Haijun. Field monitoring using infrared cameras and activity rhythm analysis on mammals and birds in Xishui National Nature Reserve, Guizhou, China [J]. Biodiv Sci, 2019, 27(6): 683-688.
[6] Zhang Xiaoling, Li Yichao, Wang Yunyun, Cai Hongyu, Zeng Hui, Wang Zhiheng. Influence of future climate change in suitable habitats of tea in different countries [J]. Biodiv Sci, 2019, 27(6): 595-606.
[7] Li Hanxi, Huang Xuena, Li Shiguo, Zhan Aibin. Environmental DNA (eDNA)-metabarcoding-based early monitoring and warning for invasive species in aquatic ecosystems [J]. Biodiv Sci, 2019, 27(5): 491-504.
[8] Shao Xinning, Song Dazhao, Huang Qiaowen, Li Sheng, Yao Meng. Fast surveys and molecular diet analysis of carnivores based on fecal DNA and metabarcoding [J]. Biodiv Sci, 2019, 27(5): 543-556.
[9] Xiao Yaqian, Liu Chuan, Xiao Liang. The role of model animals in the study of symbiotic microorganisms [J]. Biodiv Sci, 2019, 27(5): 505-515.
[10] Zhu Baijing, Xue Jingrong, Xia Rong, Jin Miaomiao, Wu You, Tian Shanyi, Chen Xiaoyun, Liu Manqiang, Hu Feng. Effect of soil nematode functional guilds on plant growth and aboveground herbivores [J]. Biodiv Sci, 2019, 27(4): 409-418.
[11] Ma Yanjie, He Haopeng, Shen Wenjing, Liu Biao, Xue Kun. Effects of transgenic maize on arthropod diversity [J]. Biodiv Sci, 2019, 27(4): 419-432.
[12] Xiao Wenhong,Shu Zufei,Chen Lijun,Yao Wutao,Ma Yong,Zhang Yingming,Xiao Zhishu. Using occupancy models in wildlife camera-trapping monitoring and the study case [J]. Biodiv Sci, 2019, 27(3): 249-256.
[13] Zhao Yang,Wen Yuanyuan. Development of Convention on Biological Diversity’s Global Platform for Business & Biodiversity: Policy suggestion for China [J]. Biodiv Sci, 2019, 27(3): 339-346.
[14] Sun Xiaoping,Li Shuang,Yu Jianping,Fang Yanjun,Zhang Yinlong,Cao Mingchang. Evaluation of ecosystem service value based on land use scenarios: A case study of Qianjiangyuan National Park pilot [J]. Biodiv Sci, 2019, 27(1): 51-63.
[15] Qian Haiyuan,Yu Jianping,Shen Xiaoli,Ding Ping,Li Sheng. Diversity and composition of birds in the Qianjiangyuan National Park pilot [J]. Biodiv Sci, 2019, 27(1): 76-80.
Full text



[1] Qian-Jin Cao, Hui Xia , Xiao Yang and Bao-Rong Lu. Performance of Hybrids between Weedy Rice and Insect-resistant Transgenic Rice under Field Experiments: Implication for Environmental Biosafety Assessment[J]. J Integr Plant Biol, 2009, 51(12): 1138 -1148 .
[2] Hyunsook Kim, Mikiko Kojima, Daeseok Choi, Soyoung Park, Minami Matsui, Hitoshi Sakakibara, and Ildoo Hwang. Overexpression of INCREASED CAMBIAL ACTIVITY, a putative methyltransferase, increases cambial activity and plant growth[J]. J Integr Plant Biol, 2016, 58(11): 874 -889 .
[3] Lei Zhou, Yaqiong Wan, Xin Hong, Heng Zhang, Lifu Qian, Chencheng Wang, Zheng Kong, Kai Zhao, Jiaqi Li, Baowei Zhang. Camera-trapping surveys of the large and medium-sized mammal and understory bird diversity in Yaoluoping National Nature Reserve, Anhui Province[J]. Biodiv Sci, 2018, 26(12): 1338 -1342 .
[4] HOU Xue-Liang, LI Ping-Tao. Three synonyms of Annonaceae in China[J]. J Syst Evol, 2007, 45(3): 369 -375 .
[5] HE Tong-Xin,LI Yan-Peng,ZHANG Fang-Yue,WANG Qing-Kui. Effects of understory removal on soil respiration and microbial community composition structure in a Chinese fir plantation[J]. Chin J Plan Ecolo, 2015, 39(8): 797 -806 .
[6] Lin Wan-Tao. New Taxa and Combinations of Bambusoideae from China[J]. J Syst Evol, 1988, 26(2): 144 -149 .
[7] Xiao-Hong YU;,Yi-Bo LUO,;,Ming DONG. Pollination biology of Cymbidium goeringii (Orchidaceae) in China[J]. J Syst Evol, 2008, 46(2): 163 -174 .
[8] HU Jin-Yao, SU Zhi-Xian, HE Xiao-Ying. The Study of Edge-effect of Davidia involucrata Nitrogen Status With Ftir[J]. Chin J Plan Ecolo, 2003, 27(5): 650 -654 .
[9] XU Yue, SHEN Ze-Hao, Lü Nan, TANG Yuan-Yuan, LI Dao-Xin, WANG Gong-Fang, TAN Jia-Lin, and LIU Yi-Ping. Ten years’ observation of seed rain in a Fagus lucida community in Dalaoling Nature Reserve in the Three Gorges: seed rain density, species composition and their correlation with the community[J]. Chin J Plan Ecolo, 2012, 36(8): 708 -716 .
[10] Zhang Chaofang. A Method for Evaluating the Utilization Prospect of Terrestrial Plant Resources[J]. Chin J Plan Ecolo, 1984, 8(3): 217 -221 .