Abstract:

Aims: Centaurea diffusa, an invasive alien weed characterized by broad ecological adaptability and high reproductive capacity, poses a significant threat to native ecosystems and has been listed as a quarantine pest in China. This study aims to delineate its potentially suitable habitats and spatial dynamics across China under global climate change, thereby providing a theoretical basis for early warning and precise control. 

Methods: A total of 815 valid global occurrence records of C. diffusa and 10 key environmental variables were compiled. An ensemble species distribution model was constructed using the Biomod2 package to simulate its potential suitability under current and projected future climate scenarios. Spatiotemporal shifts of the suitable habitat centroids were also quantified. 

Results: The ensemble model exhibited excellent predictive performance (AUC = 0.916). Under current climatic conditions, the total potentially suitable area for C. diffusa in China was estimated at 4.996 × 10⁶ km² (covering approximately 52.04% of China’s land area), with areas of high suitability primarily concentrated in Xinjiang, Gansu, Shaanxi, and Henan. Under future climate scenarios, the total suitable area would remain extensive, with its centroid generally shifting northeastward. Parts of Nei Mongol were projected to have high suitability, and the centroid would lie within this region under some scenarios. 

Conclusion: This study highlights the extensive invasion risk of C. diffusa in China. The delineated distribution patterns and spatiotemporal migration trajectories provide crucial scientific support for targeted monitoring, prevention, and management strategies.

Key words: Biomod2, biological invasion, Centaurea diffusa, climate change, potential suitable areas