Predicting the spatial distribution of three Astragalusspecies and their pollinating bumblebees in the Sino-Himalayas

doi:10.17520/biods.2020268

Abstract

Abstract:

Aims: The spatial distribution for plant species that rely on animal pollination for reproduction is influenced by the geographical distribution of their pollinators. Predicting the impact that future climate change will have on the geographical distribution of plants and their pollinators is significantly important for the conservation of biodiversity.

Methods: In this study, we conducted a field investigation to map out the distribution for three Astragalus species (A. camptodontus, A. pullus, andA. strictus) and their dominant pollinating bumblebees (Bombus). We collected 543 species distribution points for Astragalusand Bombusas well as 13 environmental factors from online database. Using the MaxEnt, we simulated suitable distribution changes for the three Astragalus species and two species of bumblebees (B. friseanusandB. rufofasciatus) under two climate change scenarios for 2100 (ssp245 and ssp585). We also combined with three possible migration situations into the models, i.e. full dispersal, no dispersal and only Bombus dispersal.

Results: We found that three Astragalusspecies are mainly pollinated by bumblebees and the most suitable distribution for Astragalus and Bombusis the Sino-Himalayas. It is predicted that by 2100, their suitable distribution will expand northwest, while distribution areas in the southeast will decrease. When the plant-pollinator interaction was included in the models, potential range size of the three Astragalusspecies was reduced by 15.83%-83.98%. Under low-emissions scenario (ssp245), the spatial match of three Astragalus species and their pollinating bumblebees is predicted to increase. However, under a high-emissions scenario (ssp585) the spatial match of A. camptodontus, A. pullusand their dominated pollinators B. friseanusis predicted to decrease. If species lack full dispersal ability or only Bombus disperse, the spatial match of A. strictusand its dominated pollinators B. rufofasciatusis predicted to decrease. Climate change and species dispersal ability may cause spatial mismatch between the Astragalusand their pollinating bumblebees. Our simulation shows that the environmental factors affecting the distribution of Astragalus and Bombus are different, but elevation is the most important factor.

Conclusion: Given the importance of pollinators for the life cycle of many plant species, our study could be used to better understand the potential effects of climate change on the spatial distribution of plants and their pollinators, particularly on species that with limited geographical range.

Key words: Astragalus, pollinating bumblebees, spatial distribution, climate change, MaxEnt model, environmental factors

Yuhan Shi, Zongxin Ren, Weijia Wang, Xin Xu, Jie Liu, Yanhui Zhao, Hong Wang. Predicting the spatial distribution of three Astragalusspecies and their pollinating bumblebees in the Sino-Himalayas[J]. Biodiv Sci, 2021, 29(6): 759-769.

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URL: https://www.biodiversity-science.net/EN/10.17520/biods.2020268

https://www.biodiversity-science.net/EN/Y2021/V29/I6/759

Figures/Tables 7

References 37

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物种 Species	AUC ± SD	TSS ± SD	阈值 Cloglog threshold (TH ± SD)
弯齿黄耆 Astragalus camptodontus	0.996 ± 0.001	0.93 ± 0.02	0.37 ± 0.16
黑毛黄耆 Astragalus pullus	0.992 ± 0.001	0.91 ± 0.02	0.33 ± 0.11
笔直黄耆 Astragalus strictus	0.960 ± 0.003	0.85 ± 0.01	0.34 ± 0.03
橘尾熊蜂 Bombus friseanus	0.991 ± 0.001	0.88 ± 0.01	0.39 ± 0.07
红束熊蜂 Bombus rufofasciatus	0.985 ± 0.002	0.87 ± 0.01	0.32 ± 0.06

物种 Species	AUC ± SD	TSS ± SD	阈值 Cloglog threshold (TH ± SD)
弯齿黄耆 Astragalus camptodontus	0.996 ± 0.001	0.93 ± 0.02	0.37 ± 0.16
黑毛黄耆 Astragalus pullus	0.992 ± 0.001	0.91 ± 0.02	0.33 ± 0.11
笔直黄耆 Astragalus strictus	0.960 ± 0.003	0.85 ± 0.01	0.34 ± 0.03
橘尾熊蜂 Bombus friseanus	0.991 ± 0.001	0.88 ± 0.01	0.39 ± 0.07
红束熊蜂 Bombus rufofasciatus	0.985 ± 0.002	0.87 ± 0.01	0.32 ± 0.06

物种 Species (Astragalus × pollinators)	空间匹配范围SMR (×10⁵km²)	SMR变化百分比 Percentage change in spatially matched range (%)
	空间匹配范围SMR (×10⁵km²)	完全扩散 Full dispersal		不扩散 No dispersal		仅熊蜂扩散 OnlyBombusdispersal
	历史阶段 Near current	ssp245	ssp585	ssp245	ssp585	ssp245	ssp585
弯齿黄耆 ×橘尾熊蜂 Astragalus camptodontus ×Bombus friseanus	1.92	74.61	114.70	-12.09	-25.94	-11.53	-24.56
黑毛黄耆 ×橘尾熊蜂 Astragalus pullus × Bombus friseanus	2.96	29.70	65.46	-7.69	-0.99	4.81	5.22
笔直黄耆 ×橘尾熊蜂 Astragalus strictus × Bombus friseanus	3.28	32.98	53.50	-1.07	-3.77	225.57	294.51
笔直黄耆 ×红束熊蜂 Astragalus strictus × Bombus rufofasciatus	6.65	63.91	112.18	-7.82	-8.32	-35.54	-25.80

物种 Species (Astragalus × pollinators)	空间匹配范围SMR (×10⁵km²)	SMR变化百分比 Percentage change in spatially matched range (%)
	空间匹配范围SMR (×10⁵km²)	完全扩散 Full dispersal		不扩散 No dispersal		仅熊蜂扩散 OnlyBombusdispersal
	历史阶段 Near current	ssp245	ssp585	ssp245	ssp585	ssp245	ssp585
弯齿黄耆 ×橘尾熊蜂 Astragalus camptodontus ×Bombus friseanus	1.92	74.61	114.70	-12.09	-25.94	-11.53	-24.56
黑毛黄耆 ×橘尾熊蜂 Astragalus pullus × Bombus friseanus	2.96	29.70	65.46	-7.69	-0.99	4.81	5.22
笔直黄耆 ×橘尾熊蜂 Astragalus strictus × Bombus friseanus	3.28	32.98	53.50	-1.07	-3.77	225.57	294.51
笔直黄耆 ×红束熊蜂 Astragalus strictus × Bombus rufofasciatus	6.65	63.91	112.18	-7.82	-8.32	-35.54	-25.80

物种 Species (Astragalus × pollinators)	空间匹配 Spatial match (%)	空间匹配变化百分比 Percentage change in spatial match (%)
	空间匹配 Spatial match (%)	完全扩散 Full dispersal		不扩散 No dispersal		仅熊蜂扩散 OnlyBombusdispersal
	历史阶段 Near current	ssp245	ssp585	ssp245	ssp585	ssp245	ssp585
弯齿黄耆 ×橘尾熊蜂 Astragalus camptodontus × Bombus friseanus	78.76	6.93	-0.03	4.52	8.26	5.19	10.27
黑毛黄耆 ×橘尾熊蜂 Astragalus pullus × Bombus friseanus	57.22	13.28	-11.79	8.44	6.03	23.12	23.82
笔直黄耆 ×橘尾熊蜂 Astragalus strictus × Bombus friseanus	16.03	0.47	0.55	3.13	-1.94	239.36	301.99
笔直黄耆 ×红束熊蜂 Astragalus strictus × Bombus rufofasciatus	32.51	23.83	45.80	-7.82	-30.74	-32.81	-24.39