Biodiv Sci ›› 2021, Vol. 29 ›› Issue (6): 759-769.DOI: 10.17520/biods.2020268

• Animal Diversity • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Predicting the spatial distribution of three Astragalusspecies and their pollinating bumblebees in the Sino-Himalayas

Yuhan Shi1,2, Zongxin Ren1, Weijia Wang1,2, Xin Xu1,2, Jie Liu1, Yanhui Zhao1, Hong Wang1,*()   

  1. 1 CAS Key Laboratory for Plant Diversity and Biogeography of East Asia, Kunming Institute of Botany, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Kunming 650201
    2 University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049
  • Received:2020-07-03 Accepted:2020-08-26 Online:2021-06-20 Published:2020-09-20
  • Contact: Hong Wang

Abstract:

Aims: The spatial distribution for plant species that rely on animal pollination for reproduction is influenced by the geographical distribution of their pollinators. Predicting the impact that future climate change will have on the geographical distribution of plants and their pollinators is significantly important for the conservation of biodiversity.

Methods: In this study, we conducted a field investigation to map out the distribution for three Astragalus species (A. camptodontus, A. pullus, andA. strictus) and their dominant pollinating bumblebees (Bombus). We collected 543 species distribution points for Astragalusand Bombusas well as 13 environmental factors from online database. Using the MaxEnt, we simulated suitable distribution changes for the three Astragalus species and two species of bumblebees (B. friseanusandB. rufofasciatus) under two climate change scenarios for 2100 (ssp245 and ssp585). We also combined with three possible migration situations into the models, i.e. full dispersal, no dispersal and only Bombus dispersal.

Results: We found that three Astragalusspecies are mainly pollinated by bumblebees and the most suitable distribution for Astragalus and Bombusis the Sino-Himalayas. It is predicted that by 2100, their suitable distribution will expand northwest, while distribution areas in the southeast will decrease. When the plant-pollinator interaction was included in the models, potential range size of the three Astragalusspecies was reduced by 15.83%-83.98%. Under low-emissions scenario (ssp245), the spatial match of three Astragalus species and their pollinating bumblebees is predicted to increase. However, under a high-emissions scenario (ssp585) the spatial match of A. camptodontus, A. pullusand their dominated pollinators B. friseanusis predicted to decrease. If species lack full dispersal ability or only Bombus disperse, the spatial match of A. strictusand its dominated pollinators B. rufofasciatusis predicted to decrease. Climate change and species dispersal ability may cause spatial mismatch between the Astragalusand their pollinating bumblebees. Our simulation shows that the environmental factors affecting the distribution of Astragalus and Bombus are different, but elevation is the most important factor.

Conclusion: Given the importance of pollinators for the life cycle of many plant species, our study could be used to better understand the potential effects of climate change on the spatial distribution of plants and their pollinators, particularly on species that with limited geographical range.

Key words: Astragalus, pollinating bumblebees, spatial distribution, climate change, MaxEnt model, environmental factors