生物多样性 ›› 2018, Vol. 26 ›› Issue (1): 89-95.DOI: 10.17520/biods.2017228
收稿日期:
2017-08-28
接受日期:
2017-11-05
出版日期:
2018-01-27
发布日期:
2018-05-05
通讯作者:
田瑜
作者简介:
# 共同第一作者
基金资助:
Yuxue Pan, Yu Tian*(), Jing Xu, Boya Zhang, Junsheng Li
Received:
2017-08-28
Accepted:
2017-11-05
Online:
2018-01-27
Published:
2018-05-05
Contact:
Tian Yu
About author:
# Co-first authors
摘要:
随着国际社会对生物多样性保护关注度的提升, 生物多样性和生态系统服务情景和模型方法逐渐成为国际进程和条约关注的焦点问题。生物多样性和生态系统服务政府间科学-政策平台(Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services, IPBES)将“生物多样性和生态系统服务情景和模型方法评估”列入2014-2018年工作方案, 作为IPBES首批评估活动之一, 其评估报告及决策者摘要已在IPBES第四次全体会议上获得通过。本文概述了该评估报告的主要内容和结论, 探讨了报告与其他国际进程的关系及其可能对中国的影响。该报告梳理了国际上现有的生物多样性和生态系统服务相关情景和模型方法, 综合分析了它们的优缺点、适用范围和限制条件, 提出了使用过程中应对数据和知识空缺的方法, 为制定、使用及优化情景和模型提供了指导。IPBES的一系列评估报告将引领生物多样性和生态系统服务相关科学领域的发展, 为各国在生物多样性领域进行对话、权衡与博弈, 实现本国利益最大化提供一个高效的平台。中国作为一个发展中的生物多样性大国, 积极参与、发声必然是应对IPBES未来发展的最优方式。
潘玉雪, 田瑜, 徐靖, 张博雅, 李俊生. IPBES框架下生物多样性和生态系统服务情景和模型方法评估及对我国的影响[J]. 生物多样性, 2018, 26(1): 89-95.
Yuxue Pan,Yu Tian,Jing Xu,Boya Zhang,Junsheng Li. Methodological assessment on scenarios and models of biodiversity and ecosystem services and impacts on China within the IPBES framework[J]. Biodiv Sci, 2018, 26(1): 89-95.
不同空间尺度的应用 Application at different spatial scales | 全球 Global | 国家: 英国 National: United Kingdom | 区域: 涵盖柬埔寨、中国、老挝、泰国和越南 Regional: analysis covers Cambodia, China, Laos, Thailand and Viet Nam | 国家: 南非 National: Coastal fisheries of South Africa |
---|---|---|---|---|
使用情景和模型解决的问题 Issues addressed using scenarios and models | 爱知目标能否在2020年前完成?达成2050年《生物多样性公约》的战略远景需要什么? Are the Aichi Biodiversity Targets likely to be attained by 2020? What is needed to achieve the strategic vision for 2050 of the Convention on Biological Diversity? | 50年后, 英国的生态系统、生态系统服务和服务价值将会出现怎样的变化? What changes might occur in ecosystems, ecosystem services and the values of these services over the next 50 years in the United Kingdom? | 评估大坝工程, 特别是湄公河干流的工程造成的社会和环境影响 Evaluating social and environmental impacts of dam construction, especially in the main stream of the Mekong River | 可持续渔业管理政策的实施 Implementation of policy on sustainable management of fisheries |
开展的项目 Projects | 《全球生物多样性展望第四版(2014)》 Global Biodiversity Outlook 4 (2014) | 《英国国家生态系统评估(2011)》 United Kingdom National | 《湄公河干流水电建设战略性环境评估》 Strategic Environmental Assessment of Hydropower on the Mekong Mainstream | 《南非渔业管理》 South African Fisheries Management |
时间范围 Time horizons | 至2020年、2050年 Present-2020, 2050 | 2060年 2060 | 2030年 2030 | 至2034年, 每2-4年更新一次 Present-2034, updated every 2-4 years |
决策支持工具 Decision-support tools | 无 None | 无, 但正在开发工具 None, but tools are being developed | 战略性环境评估方法 Strategic environmental assessment methods | 管理战略评估 Management strategy evaluation |
优势 Strengths | (1)在短期项目中创造性使用推断方法 ; (2) 清晰的决策背景和授权环境。 (1) Novel use of extrapolations for nearterm projections; (2) Clear decision context and authorizing environment | 重点关注生态系统服务之间的协同增效和权衡取舍以及价值评估 Focusing on synergies and trade-offs between ecosystem services and on monetary evaluation | (1)清晰的决策背景和授权环境; (2)利益攸关方的大力参与(1) Clear decision context and authorizing environment; (2) Strong involvement of stakeholders | (1)清晰的决策背景和授权环境; (2)政策和管理建议清晰, 且定期更新 (1) Clear decision context and authorizing environment; (2) Policy and management advice clear and updated regularly |
劣势 Weaknesses | (1)重点关注全球尺度评估, 不适于国家和地方决策背景; (2)缺乏普适性的情景和驱动因素模型, 难以开展跨目标分析 (1) Focusing on global scale limits applicability to many national and local decision contexts; (2) Lack of common scenarios and models of drivers makes analysis across targets difficult | (1)严重依赖驱动因素影响的定性评估; (2)未充分体现物种水平上的生物多样性(仅有鸟类) (1) Heavy reliance on qualitative estimates of impacts of drivers; (2) Biodiversity at species level weakly represented (only birds) | (1)情景过于特殊, 尤其是使用的经验模型, 因此很难推广或外推到更大尺度; (2)湄公河委员会的建议不具备约束力 (1) Highly context-specific, especially the empirical models used, and therefore difficult to generalize or extrapolate to larger scales; (2) Mekong River Commission recommendations non-binding | (1)情景过于特殊; (2)未考虑若干关键驱动因素(如气候变化) (1) Highly context-specific; (2) Several key drivers (e.g., climate change) not considered |
表1 生物多样性和生态系统服务情景和模型应用实践(修改自Ferrier et al, 2016)
Table 1 Application practices of scenarios and models of biodiversity and ecosystem services (adopted from Ferrier et al, 2016)
不同空间尺度的应用 Application at different spatial scales | 全球 Global | 国家: 英国 National: United Kingdom | 区域: 涵盖柬埔寨、中国、老挝、泰国和越南 Regional: analysis covers Cambodia, China, Laos, Thailand and Viet Nam | 国家: 南非 National: Coastal fisheries of South Africa |
---|---|---|---|---|
使用情景和模型解决的问题 Issues addressed using scenarios and models | 爱知目标能否在2020年前完成?达成2050年《生物多样性公约》的战略远景需要什么? Are the Aichi Biodiversity Targets likely to be attained by 2020? What is needed to achieve the strategic vision for 2050 of the Convention on Biological Diversity? | 50年后, 英国的生态系统、生态系统服务和服务价值将会出现怎样的变化? What changes might occur in ecosystems, ecosystem services and the values of these services over the next 50 years in the United Kingdom? | 评估大坝工程, 特别是湄公河干流的工程造成的社会和环境影响 Evaluating social and environmental impacts of dam construction, especially in the main stream of the Mekong River | 可持续渔业管理政策的实施 Implementation of policy on sustainable management of fisheries |
开展的项目 Projects | 《全球生物多样性展望第四版(2014)》 Global Biodiversity Outlook 4 (2014) | 《英国国家生态系统评估(2011)》 United Kingdom National | 《湄公河干流水电建设战略性环境评估》 Strategic Environmental Assessment of Hydropower on the Mekong Mainstream | 《南非渔业管理》 South African Fisheries Management |
时间范围 Time horizons | 至2020年、2050年 Present-2020, 2050 | 2060年 2060 | 2030年 2030 | 至2034年, 每2-4年更新一次 Present-2034, updated every 2-4 years |
决策支持工具 Decision-support tools | 无 None | 无, 但正在开发工具 None, but tools are being developed | 战略性环境评估方法 Strategic environmental assessment methods | 管理战略评估 Management strategy evaluation |
优势 Strengths | (1)在短期项目中创造性使用推断方法 ; (2) 清晰的决策背景和授权环境。 (1) Novel use of extrapolations for nearterm projections; (2) Clear decision context and authorizing environment | 重点关注生态系统服务之间的协同增效和权衡取舍以及价值评估 Focusing on synergies and trade-offs between ecosystem services and on monetary evaluation | (1)清晰的决策背景和授权环境; (2)利益攸关方的大力参与(1) Clear decision context and authorizing environment; (2) Strong involvement of stakeholders | (1)清晰的决策背景和授权环境; (2)政策和管理建议清晰, 且定期更新 (1) Clear decision context and authorizing environment; (2) Policy and management advice clear and updated regularly |
劣势 Weaknesses | (1)重点关注全球尺度评估, 不适于国家和地方决策背景; (2)缺乏普适性的情景和驱动因素模型, 难以开展跨目标分析 (1) Focusing on global scale limits applicability to many national and local decision contexts; (2) Lack of common scenarios and models of drivers makes analysis across targets difficult | (1)严重依赖驱动因素影响的定性评估; (2)未充分体现物种水平上的生物多样性(仅有鸟类) (1) Heavy reliance on qualitative estimates of impacts of drivers; (2) Biodiversity at species level weakly represented (only birds) | (1)情景过于特殊, 尤其是使用的经验模型, 因此很难推广或外推到更大尺度; (2)湄公河委员会的建议不具备约束力 (1) Highly context-specific, especially the empirical models used, and therefore difficult to generalize or extrapolate to larger scales; (2) Mekong River Commission recommendations non-binding | (1)情景过于特殊; (2)未考虑若干关键驱动因素(如气候变化) (1) Highly context-specific; (2) Several key drivers (e.g., climate change) not considered |
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