IPBES框架下生物多样性和生态系统服务情景和模型方法评估及对我国的影响

doi:10.17520/biods.2017228

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

随着国际社会对生物多样性保护关注度的提升, 生物多样性和生态系统服务情景和模型方法逐渐成为国际进程和条约关注的焦点问题。生物多样性和生态系统服务政府间科学-政策平台(Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services, IPBES)将“生物多样性和生态系统服务情景和模型方法评估”列入2014-2018年工作方案, 作为IPBES首批评估活动之一, 其评估报告及决策者摘要已在IPBES第四次全体会议上获得通过。本文概述了该评估报告的主要内容和结论, 探讨了报告与其他国际进程的关系及其可能对中国的影响。该报告梳理了国际上现有的生物多样性和生态系统服务相关情景和模型方法, 综合分析了它们的优缺点、适用范围和限制条件, 提出了使用过程中应对数据和知识空缺的方法, 为制定、使用及优化情景和模型提供了指导。IPBES的一系列评估报告将引领生物多样性和生态系统服务相关科学领域的发展, 为各国在生物多样性领域进行对话、权衡与博弈, 实现本国利益最大化提供一个高效的平台。中国作为一个发展中的生物多样性大国, 积极参与、发声必然是应对IPBES未来发展的最优方式。

关键词: 生物多样性, 生态系统服务, 情景, 模型, IPBES

Abstract:

With increasing international concern for biodiversity conservation, biodiversity and ecosystem services-related scenarios and models have become the foci of international processes and treaties. The Methodological Assessment on Scenarios and Models of Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services was included in the 2014-2018 Work Program of Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) as one of the first rounds of rapid assessment activities. The assessment report and its Summary for Policymakers were adopted at the Fourth Session of the IPBES Plenary. This research summarizes the assessment report through its main contents and conclusions based on the IPBES framework, and also explores the relationship between IPBES deliverables and other international processes, and possible impacts on policy making in China. The report provided a comprehensive analysis of the existing scenarios and models of biodiversity and ecosystem services, and also provided corresponding solutions for coping with data and knowledge gaps, as well as guidance for the development, use, and optimization of scenarios and models. IPBES assessments have been ushering in the development of biodiversity science and ecosystem services, offering an efficient platform for countries to undertake communication, and provide trade-offs and gains in the field of biodiversity to maximize their own interests. As a developing country with rich biodiversity, China is bound to actively participate in activities of IPBES and use its own voice, which would be an ideal way to deal with the future development of IPBES.

Key words: biodiversity, ecosystem services, scenarios, models, IPBES

潘玉雪, 田瑜, 徐靖, 张博雅, 李俊生. IPBES框架下生物多样性和生态系统服务情景和模型方法评估及对我国的影响[J]. 生物多样性, 2018, 26(1): 89-95.

Yuxue Pan,Yu Tian,Jing Xu,Boya Zhang,Junsheng Li. Methodological assessment on scenarios and models of biodiversity and ecosystem services and impacts on China within the IPBES framework[J]. Biodiv Sci, 2018, 26(1): 89-95.

图/表 1

参考文献 22

1	Christensen V, Walters CJ, Pauly D (2005) Ecopath with Ecosim: A User’s Guide. Fisheries Centre, University of British Columbia, Vancouver.
2	Díaz S, Demissew S, Carabias J (2015a) The IPBES conceptual framework—connecting nature and people. Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, 14, 1-16.
3	Díaz S, Demissew S, Joly C, Lonsdale WM, Larigauderie A (2015b) A Rosetta Stone for nature’s benefits to people. PLoS Biology, 13, e1002040.
4	Ferrier S, Ninan KN, Leadley P, Alkemade R, Acosta LA, Akcakaya HR, Brotons L, Cheung WWL, Christensen V, Harhash KA, Kabubo-Mariara J, Lundquist C, Obersteiner M, Pereira HM, Peterson G, Pichs-Madruga R, Ravindranath N, Rondinini C, Wintle BA (2016) The Methodological Assessment Report on Scenarios and Models of Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services. Secretariat of the Intergovernmental Platform for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services, Bonn, Germany.
5	Fu BJ, Yu DD, Lü N (2017) An indicator system for biodiversity and ecosystem services evaluation in China. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 37, 341-348.(in Chinese with English abstract)
	[傅伯杰, 于丹丹, 吕楠 (2017) 中国生物多样性与生态系统服务评估指标体系. 生态学报, 37, 341-348.]
6	Hotes S, Opgenoorth L (2014) Trust and control at the Science-Policy Interface in IPBES. BioScience, 64, 277-278.
7	Hove SVD, Chabason L (2009) The Debate on an Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) Exploring Gaps and Needs. Institut Du Développement Durable Et Des Relations Internationales,

8	O’Neill BC, Kriegler E, Riahi K, Ebi KL, Hallegatte S, Carter TR, Mathur R, Vuuren DPV (2014) A new scenario framework for climate change research: the concept of shared socioeconomic pathways. Climatic Change, 122, 401-414.
9	Peh KSH, Balmford A, Bradbury RB, Brown C, Butchart SHM, Hughes FMR, Stattersfield A, Thomas DHL, Walpole M, Bayliss J, Gowing D, Jones JPG, Lewis SL, Mulligan M, Pandeya B, Stratford C, Thompson JR, Turner K, Vira B, Willcock S, Birch JC (2013) TESSA: a toolkit for rapid assessment of ecosystem services at sites of biodiversity conservation importance. Ecosystem Services, 5, 51-57.
10	Sharp R, Tallis HT, Ricketts T, Guerry AD, Wood SA, Chaplin-Kramer R, Nelson E, Ennaanay D, Wolny S, Olwero N, Vigerstol K, Pennington D, Mendoza G, Aukema J, Foster J, Forrest J, Cameron D, Arkema K, Lonsdorf E, Kennedy C, Verutes G, Kim CK, Guannel G, Papenfus M, Toft J, Marsik M, Bernhardt J, Griffin R, Glowinski K, Chaumont N, Perelman A, Lacayo M, Mandle L, Hamel P, Vogl AL (2015) InVEST + VERSION + User’s Guide. The Natural Capital Project, Stanford University, University of Minnesota, The Nature Conservancy, and World Wildlife Fund.
11	Stehfest E, Vuuren D, Kram T, Bouwman A, Alkemade R, Bakkenes M, Biemans H, Bouwman A, Elzen M, Janse J, Lucas P, van Minnen J, Müller M, Prins A (2014) Integrated Assessment of Global Environmental Change With IMAGE 3.0: Model Description and Policy Applications. PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, The Hague.
12	Thaman R, Lyver P, Mpande R, Perez E, Cariño J, Takeuchi K (2013) The Contribution of Indigenous and Local Knowledge Systems to IPBES: Building Synergies With Science. United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization, Paris.
13	Tian Y, Lan CZ, Xu J, Li XS, Li JS (2016), Assessment of pollination and China’s implementation strategies within the IPBES framework. Biodiversity Science, 24, 1084-1090.(in Chinese with English abstract)
	[田瑜, 兰存子, 徐靖, 李秀山, 李俊生 (2016) IPBES框架下的全球传粉评估及我国对策. 生物多样性, 24, 1084-1090.]
14	Tian Y, Li JS, Lan CZ, Li XS (2015) Interpretation of the work programme of Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services for the period 2014-2018. Biodiversity Science, 23, 543-549.(in Chinese with English abstract)
	[田瑜, 李俊生, 兰存子, 李秀山 (2015) 生物多样性和生态系统服务政府间科学-政策平台2014-2018年工作方案解析. 生物多样性, 23, 543-549.]
15	Trisurat Y (2013) Ecological Assessment: Assessing Conditions and Trends of Ecosystem Services of Thadee Watershed, Nakhon Si Thammarat Province. Final Report Submitted to the ECO-BEST Project. Bangkok, Faculty of Forestry, Kasetsart University. (in Thai with English abstract)
16	Tucker GM, Mcconville AJ, Mccoy K, Brink P, Braat LC, Arets E, Bräuer I, Gerdes H, Grunig M (2009) Scenarios and models for exploring future trends of biodiversity and ecosystem services changes. Final Report to the European Commission, DG Environment on Contract. Nuclear Fusion, 16, 16-17.
17	Villa F, Bagstad KJ, Voigt B, Johnson GW, Portela R, Honzák M, Batker D (2014) A methodology for adaptable and robust ecosystem services assessment. PLoS ONE, 9, e91001.
18	Villarreal ML, Norman LM, Boykin KG, Wallace CSA (2013) Biodiversity losses and conservation trade-offs: assessing future urban growth scenarios for a North American trade corridor. International Journal of Biodiversity Science, Ecosystem Services & Management, 9, 90-103.
19	Yu DD, Lü N, Fu BJ (2017) Indicator systems and methods for evaluating biodiversity and ecosystem services. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 37, 349-357.(in Chinese with English abstract)
	[于丹丹, 吕楠, 傅伯杰 (2017) 生物多样性与生态系统服务评估指标与方法. 生态学报, 37, 349-357.]
20	Yue TX (2017) Principles and Methods for Simulating Earth’s Surface Systems. Science Press, Beijing.(in Chinese)
	[岳天祥 (2017) 地球表层系统模拟分析原理与方法. 科学出版社, 北京.]
21	Yue TX, Liu Y, Zhao MW, Du ZP, Zhao N (2016) A fundamental theorem of Earth’s surface modelling. Environmental Earth Sciences, 75, 751.
22	Yue TX, Wang YF, Du ZP, Zhao MW, Zhang LL, Zhao N, Lou M, Larocqued GR, Wilson J (2016) Analyzing the uncertainty of estimating forest carbon stocks in China. Biogeosciences, 13, 3991-4004.

不同空间尺度的应用 Application at different spatial scales	全球 Global	国家: 英国 National: United Kingdom	区域: 涵盖柬埔寨、中国、老挝、泰国和越南 Regional: analysis covers Cambodia, China, Laos, Thailand and Viet Nam	国家: 南非 National: Coastal fisheries of South Africa
使用情景和模型解决的问题 Issues addressed using scenarios and models	爱知目标能否在2020年前完成?达成2050年《生物多样性公约》的战略远景需要什么? Are the Aichi Biodiversity Targets likely to be attained by 2020? What is needed to achieve the strategic vision for 2050 of the Convention on Biological Diversity?	50年后, 英国的生态系统、生态系统服务和服务价值将会出现怎样的变化? What changes might occur in ecosystems, ecosystem services and the values of these services over the next 50 years in the United Kingdom?	评估大坝工程, 特别是湄公河干流的工程造成的社会和环境影响 Evaluating social and environmental impacts of dam construction, especially in the main stream of the Mekong River	可持续渔业管理政策的实施 Implementation of policy on sustainable management of fisheries
开展的项目 Projects	《全球生物多样性展望第四版(2014)》 Global Biodiversity Outlook 4 (2014)	《英国国家生态系统评估(2011)》 United Kingdom National Ecosystem Assessment (2011)	《湄公河干流水电建设战略性环境评估》 Strategic Environmental Assessment of Hydropower on the Mekong Mainstream	《南非渔业管理》 South African Fisheries Management
时间范围 Time horizons	至2020年、2050年 Present-2020, 2050	2060年 2060	2030年 2030	至2034年, 每2-4年更新一次 Present-2034, updated every 2-4 years
决策支持工具 Decision-support tools	无 None	无, 但正在开发工具 None, but tools are being developed	战略性环境评估方法 Strategic environmental assessment methods	管理战略评估 Management strategy evaluation
优势 Strengths	(1)在短期项目中创造性使用推断方法 ; (2) 清晰的决策背景和授权环境。 (1) Novel use of extrapolations for nearterm projections; (2) Clear decision context and authorizing environment	重点关注生态系统服务之间的协同增效和权衡取舍以及价值评估 Focusing on synergies and trade-offs between ecosystem services and on monetary evaluation	(1)清晰的决策背景和授权环境; (2)利益攸关方的大力参与(1) Clear decision context and authorizing environment; (2) Strong involvement of stakeholders	(1)清晰的决策背景和授权环境; (2)政策和管理建议清晰, 且定期更新 (1) Clear decision context and authorizing environment; (2) Policy and management advice clear and updated regularly
劣势 Weaknesses	(1)重点关注全球尺度评估, 不适于国家和地方决策背景; (2)缺乏普适性的情景和驱动因素模型, 难以开展跨目标分析 (1) Focusing on global scale limits applicability to many national and local decision contexts; (2) Lack of common scenarios and models of drivers makes analysis across targets difficult	(1)严重依赖驱动因素影响的定性评估; (2)未充分体现物种水平上的生物多样性(仅有鸟类) (1) Heavy reliance on qualitative estimates of impacts of drivers; (2) Biodiversity at species level weakly represented (only birds)	(1)情景过于特殊, 尤其是使用的经验模型, 因此很难推广或外推到更大尺度; (2)湄公河委员会的建议不具备约束力 (1) Highly context-specific, especially the empirical models used, and therefore difficult to generalize or extrapolate to larger scales; (2) Mekong River Commission recommendations non-binding	(1)情景过于特殊; (2)未考虑若干关键驱动因素(如气候变化) (1) Highly context-specific; (2) Several key drivers (e.g., climate change) not considered

不同空间尺度的应用 Application at different spatial scales	全球 Global	国家: 英国 National: United Kingdom	区域: 涵盖柬埔寨、中国、老挝、泰国和越南 Regional: analysis covers Cambodia, China, Laos, Thailand and Viet Nam	国家: 南非 National: Coastal fisheries of South Africa
使用情景和模型解决的问题 Issues addressed using scenarios and models	爱知目标能否在2020年前完成?达成2050年《生物多样性公约》的战略远景需要什么? Are the Aichi Biodiversity Targets likely to be attained by 2020? What is needed to achieve the strategic vision for 2050 of the Convention on Biological Diversity?	50年后, 英国的生态系统、生态系统服务和服务价值将会出现怎样的变化? What changes might occur in ecosystems, ecosystem services and the values of these services over the next 50 years in the United Kingdom?	评估大坝工程, 特别是湄公河干流的工程造成的社会和环境影响 Evaluating social and environmental impacts of dam construction, especially in the main stream of the Mekong River	可持续渔业管理政策的实施 Implementation of policy on sustainable management of fisheries
开展的项目 Projects	《全球生物多样性展望第四版(2014)》 Global Biodiversity Outlook 4 (2014)	《英国国家生态系统评估(2011)》 United Kingdom National Ecosystem Assessment (2011)	《湄公河干流水电建设战略性环境评估》 Strategic Environmental Assessment of Hydropower on the Mekong Mainstream	《南非渔业管理》 South African Fisheries Management
时间范围 Time horizons	至2020年、2050年 Present-2020, 2050	2060年 2060	2030年 2030	至2034年, 每2-4年更新一次 Present-2034, updated every 2-4 years
决策支持工具 Decision-support tools	无 None	无, 但正在开发工具 None, but tools are being developed	战略性环境评估方法 Strategic environmental assessment methods	管理战略评估 Management strategy evaluation
优势 Strengths	(1)在短期项目中创造性使用推断方法 ; (2) 清晰的决策背景和授权环境。 (1) Novel use of extrapolations for nearterm projections; (2) Clear decision context and authorizing environment	重点关注生态系统服务之间的协同增效和权衡取舍以及价值评估 Focusing on synergies and trade-offs between ecosystem services and on monetary evaluation	(1)清晰的决策背景和授权环境; (2)利益攸关方的大力参与(1) Clear decision context and authorizing environment; (2) Strong involvement of stakeholders	(1)清晰的决策背景和授权环境; (2)政策和管理建议清晰, 且定期更新 (1) Clear decision context and authorizing environment; (2) Policy and management advice clear and updated regularly
劣势 Weaknesses	(1)重点关注全球尺度评估, 不适于国家和地方决策背景; (2)缺乏普适性的情景和驱动因素模型, 难以开展跨目标分析 (1) Focusing on global scale limits applicability to many national and local decision contexts; (2) Lack of common scenarios and models of drivers makes analysis across targets difficult	(1)严重依赖驱动因素影响的定性评估; (2)未充分体现物种水平上的生物多样性(仅有鸟类) (1) Heavy reliance on qualitative estimates of impacts of drivers; (2) Biodiversity at species level weakly represented (only birds)	(1)情景过于特殊, 尤其是使用的经验模型, 因此很难推广或外推到更大尺度; (2)湄公河委员会的建议不具备约束力 (1) Highly context-specific, especially the empirical models used, and therefore difficult to generalize or extrapolate to larger scales; (2) Mekong River Commission recommendations non-binding	(1)情景过于特殊; (2)未考虑若干关键驱动因素(如气候变化) (1) Highly context-specific; (2) Several key drivers (e.g., climate change) not considered

[1]	刘炎林宋大昭刘蓓蓓夏凡陈月龙王一晴黄巧雯. 中国猫科动物红外相机监测平台介绍：民间环保机构的数据整合[J]. 生物多样性, 2020, 28(9): 0-0.
[2]	王天明冯利民杨海涛鲍蕾王红芳葛剑平. 东北虎豹生物多样性红外相机监测平台[J]. 生物多样性, 2020, 28(9): 0-0.
[3]	李晟 William J. McShea 王大军申小莉卜红亮官天培王放古晓东张晓峰廖灏泓. 西南山地红外相机监测网络建设进展[J]. 生物多样性, 2020, 28(9): 0-0.
[4]	王东万雅琼汪世钊陈佳萍吴彤李佳琦连新明. 基于红外相机技术对长江正源沱沱河流域鸟兽多样性调查[J]. 生物多样性, 2020, 28(9): 0-0.
[5]	William J. McShea 申小莉刘芳王天明肖治术李晟. 中国的野生动物红外相机监测需要统一的标准[J]. 生物多样性, 2020, 28(9): 0-0.
[6]	尚素琴, 吴兴波, 王召龙, 彭鹤年, 周惠丽, 张红勇, 白映禄. 兴隆山国家级自然保护区不同生境的蝴蝶群落结构与种-多度分布[J]. 生物多样性, 2020, 28(8): 983-992.
[7]	王群, 郭志祥, 李进斌, 王凯博, 吴文伟, 浦恩堂, 马方舟, 何成兴. 云南哀牢山、无量山国家级自然保护区蝴蝶种群动态及多样性[J]. 生物多样性, 2020, 28(8): 921-930.
[8]	余元钧, 罗火林, 刘南南, 熊冬金, 罗毅波, 杨柏云. 气候变化对中国大黄花虾脊兰及其传粉者适生区的影响[J]. 生物多样性, 2020, 28(7): 769-778.
[9]	吴杨, 潘玉雪, 张博雅, 戴逢斌, 田瑜. IPBES框架下的生物多样性和生态系统服务区域评估及政策经验[J]. 生物多样性, 2020, 28(7): 913-919.
[10]	赵莹, 申小莉, 李晟, 张雁云, 彭任华, 马克平. 声景生态学研究进展和展望[J]. 生物多样性, 2020, 28(7): 806-820.
[11]	李婷婷, 张西美. 全球变化背景下内蒙古草原土壤微生物多样性维持机制研究进展[J]. 生物多样性, 2020, 28(6): 749-758.
[12]	梁承志. 生物信息学分析方法I: 全基因组关联分析概述[J]. 植物学报, 2020, 55(6): 0-0.
[13]	王新阳, 靳程, 黄力, 周礼华, 郑明铭, 钱深华, 杨永川. 中国佛教寺庙植物多样性和佛教树种替代[J]. 生物多样性, 2020, 28(6): 668-677.
[14]	周贵尧, 周灵燕, 邵钧炯, 周旭辉. 极端干旱对陆地生态系统的影响: 进展与展望[J]. 植物生态学报, 2020, 44(5): 515-525.
[15]	李彬彬. 推进生物多样性保护与人类健康的共同发展——One Health[J]. 生物多样性, 2020, 28(5): 596-605.