基于倾向评分配比法评估苍山自然保护区的森林保护成效

doi:10.17520/biods.2017086

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

对自然保护区的定期评估有助于提升其管理和保护水平。本研究以苍山自然保护区所在的大理市、洱源县、漾濞县3个市/县作为子研究区域, 构建了基于倾向评分配比(propensity score matching)和配对t检验(paired-samples t-test)的保护成效评估技术方案。选取海拔、坡度、与最近居民点的距离、与最近道路的距离4个因子作为环境变量, 通过对每个县单独进行分析, 分别对比了自然保护区晋升国家级时(1995年)与20年后(2015年)其森林覆盖面积的变化, 以此来评估苍山自然保护区的森林保护成效, 并对各环境变量与森林覆盖变化值的关系进行了偏相关分析(partial correlation analysis)。结果表明: 大理市境内苍山自然保护区内的森林覆盖变化值显著高于保护区外部, 且该区段的森林覆盖率最高。洱源县境内苍山自然保护区内、外的森林覆盖变化率均高于其他2个市/县, 且保护区内、外森林覆盖变化值差异不显著。漾濞县境内苍山自然保护区内、外森林覆盖变化率最低, 但其保护区外0-10 km区域的森林覆盖变化值显著高于10 km以外区域, 保护区的存在对其周边0-10 km区域产生了正面的溢出效应 (neighborhood leakage)。海拔、坡度、与最近居民点的距离、与最近道路的距离4个协变量在3个市/县的不同研究区段内均与森林覆盖变化值呈现出了不同程度的相关性。本研究所采用的倾向评分配比法和按照行政区划对自然保护区分区进行评估的方法, 为自然保护区整体保护成效的评价提供了新的技术思路。

关键词: 倾向评分配比, 溢出效应, 保护成效, 森林覆盖变化

Abstract

The establishment of protected areas is one of the most common measures of biodiversity conservation. Regular assessment can help improve management and promote conservation in protected areas. According to administrative divisions, we divided the Cangshan Nature Reserve into three parts: Dali City, Eryuan County and Yangbi County, as sub-study areas. The evaluation was based on propensity score matching and paired-samples t-test. Elevation, slope, distance to the nearest settlement, and distance to the nearest road were four chosen covariates. Since the Cangshan Nature Reserve was upgraded to the national level in 1994, we compared forest changes between 1995 and 2015. Partial correlation analysis was carried out between each covariate and forest change to analyze the impact factors. Results indicated that in Dali City, the forest change value inside the Cangshan Nature Reserve was significantly higher than that found outside. Forest coverage inside the Cangshan Nature Reserve in Dali City was the highest among all regions. The forest change rates both inside and outside the Cangshan Nature Reserve in Eryuan County were higher than the other two counties. There was no significant difference in forest change value between areas inside and outside of the nature reserve in Eryuan County. In Yangbi County, the forest change rates both inside and outside of Cangshan Nature Reserve were the lowest among three counties, but the forest change value found within 10 km outside of the nature reserve was significantly higher than that found in areas beyond 10 km, which indicates that the existence of the Cangshan Nature Reserve performed positive neighborhood leakage in surrounding areas within 10 km. The four covariates all affected forest change in different areas in a variety of ways. The propensity score matching and sub-regional methodology for the assessment of the Cangshan Nature Reserve provided a new technical method and example for other conservation assessment studies.

Key words: propensity score matching, neighborhood leakage, assessment of conservation, forest coverage change

陈冰, 刘方正, 张玉波, 杜金鸿, 王伟, 李俊生 (2017) 基于倾向评分配比法评估苍山自然保护区的森林保护成效. 生物多样性, 25, 999-1007. DOI: 10.17520/biods.2017086.

Bing Chen, Fangzheng Liu, Yubo Zhang, Jinhong Du, Wei Wang, Junsheng Li (2017) Assessment of forest conservation in the Cangshan Nature Reserve based on propensity score matching. Biodiversity Science, 25, 999-1007. DOI: 10.17520/biods.2017086.

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链接本文: https://www.biodiversity-science.net/CN/10.17520/biods.2017086

https://www.biodiversity-science.net/CN/Y2017/V25/I9/999

图/表 5

图1 1995年和2015年大理、洱源、漾濞3个市/县的森林覆盖图

Fig. 1 Forest coverage of Dali City, Eryuan County and Yangbi County in 1995 and 2015

表1 1995-2015年间大理市、洱源县和漾濞县苍山自然保护区内、外森林覆盖总体情况

Table 1 Overall condition of forest coverage inside and outside of Cangshan Nature Reserve in Dali City, Eryuan County and Yangbi County during 1995-2015

子研究区域 Sub-study area		1995		2015		森林覆盖变化值 Forest coverage change (km²)	森林变化率 Forest change rate
子研究区域 Sub-study area		森林面积 Forest area (km²)	森林覆盖率 Forest coverage	森林面积 Forest area (km²)	森林覆盖率 Forest coverage	森林覆盖变化值 Forest coverage change (km²)	森林变化率 Forest change rate
大理市 Dali City	保护区内 Inside	166.15	78.74%	168.24	79.73%	2.09	1.26%
大理市 Dali City	保护区外 Outside	284.05	28.61%	320.33	32.26%	36.28	12.77%
洱源县 Eryuan County	保护区内 Inside	32.73	71.15%	34.43	74.85%	1.700	5.19%
洱源县 Eryuan County	保护区外 Outside	1004.14	38.86%	1151.36	44.56%	147.22	14.66%
漾濞县 Yangbi County	保护区内 Inside	117.26	80.32%	113.98	78.07%	-3.28	-2.80%
漾濞县 Yangbi County	保护区外 Outside	740.91	49.26%	776.95	51.66%	36.04	4.86%

表2 大理市(D)、洱源县(E)、漾濞县(Y) 3个研究区段间的倾向评分配比结果。A指保护区内; B指保护区外0-10 km; C指保护区10 km以外。表中数值为样本数, 即网格数。

Table 2 Result of propensity score matching of three survey regions in Dali City (D), Eryuan County (E) and Yangbi County (Y). A refers to areas inside Cangshan Nature Reserve; B refers to areas within 10 km outside of Cangshan Nature Reserve; C refers to areas beyond 10 km from Cangshan Nature Reserve. Numbers in the table are sample values, which refers to the number of grids.

研究区段 Survey region	匹配前 Before matching		匹配成功 Matched		未匹配成功 Unmatched
研究区段 Survey region	对照组 Control	处理组 Treated	对照组 Control	处理组 Treated	对照组 Control	处理组 Treated
DA_DB	336	211	26	26	310	185
DA_DC	465	211	36	36	429	175
DB_DC	465	336	232	232	233	104
EA_EB	428	46	40	40	388	6
EA_EC	2,050	46	45	45	2,005	1
EB_EC	2,050	428	414	414	1,636	14
YA_YB	352	146	16	16	336	130
YA_YC	1,152	146	34	34	1,118	112
YB_YC	1152	352	338	338	814	14

图2 大理市(D)、洱源县(E)、漾濞县(Y)各研究区段1995-2015年森林覆盖变化均值对比(平均值 ± SD)。A指保护区内; B指保护区外0-10 km; C指保护区10 km以外。

Fig. 2 Comparison of forest coverage change during 1995-2015 inside Cangshan Nature Reserve among three survey regions in Dali City (D), Eryuan County (E) and Yangbi County (Y) (mean ± SD). A refers to areas inside Cangshan Nature Reserve; B refers to areas within 10 km outside of Cangshan Nature Reserve; C refers to areas beyond 10km from Cangshan Nature Reserve.

表3 大理市(D)、洱源县(E)和漾濞县(Y)各研究区段1995-2015年间森林覆盖变化值配对t检验结果。A指保护区内; B指保护区外0-10 km; C指保护区10 km以外。

Table 3 Results of paired-samples t-test of forest coverage change during 1995-2015 among three survey regions in Dali City (D), Eryuan County (E) and Yangbi County (Y). A refers to areas inside Cangshan Nature Reserve; B refers to areas within 10 km outside of Cangshan Nature Reserve; C refers to areas beyond 10 km from Cangshan Nature Reserve.

	DA_DB	DA_DC	DB_DC	EA_EB	EA_EC	EB_EC	YA_YB	YA_YC	YB_YC
t	3.553	3.187	0.535	0.246	-1.359	-1.943	-0.970	0.283	2.772
df	25	35	231	39	44	413	15	33	337
P	0.002^*	0.003^*	0.593	0.807	0.181	0.053	0.347	0.779	0.006^*

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