生物多样性 ›› 2018, Vol. 26 ›› Issue (1): 89-95.doi: 10.17520/biods.2017228

• 保护论坛 • 上一篇    下一篇


潘玉雪, 田瑜*(), 徐靖, 张博雅, 李俊生   

  1. 中国环境科学研究院生物多样性研究中心, 北京 100012
  • 收稿日期:2017-08-28 接受日期:2017-11-05 出版日期:2018-01-27
  • 通讯作者: 田瑜 E-mail:tianyu@craes.org.cn
  • 作者简介:

    # 共同第一作者

  • 基金项目:

Methodological assessment on scenarios and models of biodiversity and ecosystem services and impacts on China within the IPBES framework

Yuxue Pan, Yu Tian*(), Jing Xu, Boya Zhang, Junsheng Li   

  1. Biodiversity Research Center, Chinese Academy of Environmental Sciences, Beijing 100012
  • Received:2017-08-28 Accepted:2017-11-05 Online:2018-01-27
  • Contact: Tian Yu E-mail:tianyu@craes.org.cn
  • About author:

    # Co-first authors

随着国际社会对生物多样性保护关注度的提升, 生物多样性和生态系统服务情景和模型方法逐渐成为国际进程和条约关注的焦点问题。生物多样性和生态系统服务政府间科学-政策平台(Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services, IPBES)将“生物多样性和生态系统服务情景和模型方法评估”列入2014-2018年工作方案, 作为IPBES首批评估活动之一, 其评估报告及决策者摘要已在IPBES第四次全体会议上获得通过。本文概述了该评估报告的主要内容和结论, 探讨了报告与其他国际进程的关系及其可能对中国的影响。该报告梳理了国际上现有的生物多样性和生态系统服务相关情景和模型方法, 综合分析了它们的优缺点、适用范围和限制条件, 提出了使用过程中应对数据和知识空缺的方法, 为制定、使用及优化情景和模型提供了指导。IPBES的一系列评估报告将引领生物多样性和生态系统服务相关科学领域的发展, 为各国在生物多样性领域进行对话、权衡与博弈, 实现本国利益最大化提供一个高效的平台。中国作为一个发展中的生物多样性大国, 积极参与、发声必然是应对IPBES未来发展的最优方式。

关键词: 生物多样性, 生态系统服务, 情景, 模型, IPBES

With increasing international concern for biodiversity conservation, biodiversity and ecosystem services-related scenarios and models have become the foci of international processes and treaties. The Methodological Assessment on Scenarios and Models of Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services was included in the 2014-2018 Work Program of Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) as one of the first rounds of rapid assessment activities. The assessment report and its Summary for Policymakers were adopted at the Fourth Session of the IPBES Plenary. This research summarizes the assessment report through its main contents and conclusions based on the IPBES framework, and also explores the relationship between IPBES deliverables and other international processes, and possible impacts on policy making in China. The report provided a comprehensive analysis of the existing scenarios and models of biodiversity and ecosystem services, and also provided corresponding solutions for coping with data and knowledge gaps, as well as guidance for the development, use, and optimization of scenarios and models. IPBES assessments have been ushering in the development of biodiversity science and ecosystem services, offering an efficient platform for countries to undertake communication, and provide trade-offs and gains in the field of biodiversity to maximize their own interests. As a developing country with rich biodiversity, China is bound to actively participate in activities of IPBES and use its own voice, which would be an ideal way to deal with the future development of IPBES.

Key words: biodiversity, ecosystem services, scenarios, models, IPBES


生物多样性和生态系统服务情景和模型应用实践(修改自Ferrier et al, 2016)"

Application at different spatial scales
全球 Global 国家: 英国
National: United Kingdom
区域: 涵盖柬埔寨、中国、老挝、泰国和越南
Regional: analysis covers Cambodia, China, Laos, Thailand and Viet Nam
国家: 南非
National: Coastal fisheries of South Africa
Issues addressed using scenarios and models
Are the Aichi Biodiversity Targets likely to be attained by 2020? What is needed to achieve the strategic vision for 2050 of the Convention on Biological Diversity?
50年后, 英国的生态系统、生态系统服务和服务价值将会出现怎样的变化?
What changes might occur in ecosystems, ecosystem services and the values of these services over the next 50 years in the United Kingdom?
评估大坝工程, 特别是湄公河干流的工程造成的社会和环境影响
Evaluating social and environmental impacts of dam construction, especially in the main stream of the Mekong River
Implementation of policy on sustainable management of fisheries
Global Biodiversity Outlook 4 (2014)
United Kingdom National Ecosystem Assessment (2011)
Strategic Environmental Assessment of Hydropower on the Mekong Mainstream
South African Fisheries Management
Time horizons
Present-2020, 2050
2060年 2060 2030年 2030 至2034年, 每2-4年更新一次
Present-2034, updated every 2-4 years
Decision-support tools
无 None 无, 但正在开发工具
None, but tools are being developed
Strategic environmental assessment methods
Management strategy evaluation
优势 Strengths (1)在短期项目中创造性使用推断方法 ;
(2) 清晰的决策背景和授权环境。
(1) Novel use of extrapolations for nearterm projections;
(2) Clear decision context and authorizing environment
Focusing on synergies and trade-offs between ecosystem services and on monetary evaluation
(2)利益攸关方的大力参与(1) Clear decision context and authorizing environment;
(2) Strong involvement of stakeholders
(2)政策和管理建议清晰, 且定期更新
(1) Clear decision context and authorizing environment;
(2) Policy and management advice clear and updated regularly
劣势 Weaknesses (1)重点关注全球尺度评估, 不适于国家和地方决策背景;
(2)缺乏普适性的情景和驱动因素模型, 难以开展跨目标分析
(1) Focusing on global scale limits applicability to many national and local decision contexts;
(2) Lack of common scenarios and models of drivers makes analysis across targets difficult
(1) Heavy reliance on qualitative estimates of impacts of drivers;
(2) Biodiversity at species level weakly represented (only birds)
(1)情景过于特殊, 尤其是使用的经验模型, 因此很难推广或外推到更大尺度;
(1) Highly context-specific, especially the empirical models used, and therefore difficult to generalize or extrapolate to larger scales;
(2) Mekong River Commission recommendations non-binding
(1) Highly context-specific;
(2) Several key drivers (e.g., climate change) not considered
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