Prediction of suitable habitats and risk assessment for key invasive alien plant species on Hainan Island based on the MaxEnt model

doi:10.17520/biods.2025037

Abstract

Abstract:

Aims: Invasive alien plants (IAPs) pose serious threats to ecosystems, biodiversity, and human well-being. Hainan Island, as one of China’s most biodiverse regions, confronts mounting risks of invasion by alien plant species. This study targeted 33 invasive species identified in the newly released Key Management List of Invasive Alien Species (issued jointly by six ministries and commissions, including the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs), aiming to evaluate their potential suitable habitats and invasion risks on Hainan Island.

Method: We first aggregated occurrence records and environmental variables from multiple databases for the 33 listed invasive plant species. Using the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model in conjunction with geographic information system (GIS) techniques, we modeled each species’ potential spatial distribution under current climatic conditions. Subsequently, we overlaid species-specific distribution maps to identify invasion hot spots and assessed the relative importance of environmental factors contributing to habitat suitability.

Results: Among the 33 investigated species, 25 were predicted to possess suitable habitats on Hainan Island, which varied in geographical extent. Notably, four species—Sorghum halepense, Chromolaena odorata, Amaranthus spinosus, and Lantana camara—exhibited high-risk distributions covering more than 50% of the island’s total land area. Invasion hot spots were concentrated primarily in low-elevation plains in the northeastern region and several coastal zones. Key environmental drivers included human activity intensity, temperature seasonality, mean diurnal temperature range, and precipitation of warmest quarter. These findings reflected the urgent need for comprehensive prevention and control measures, particularly in vulnerable areas.

Conclusion: Our results underscore the importance of prioritizing high-risk species and high-risk regions for targeted monitoring and integrated management on Hainan Island. Effective strategies should include not only conventional control approaches but also incorporate socio-environmental factors and biotic interaction mechanisms in subsequent research. By enhancing early warning systems and applying science-based interventions, stakeholders can better curb the spread of invasive alien plants and safeguard the island’s rich biodiversity.

Key words: Hainan Island, invasive alien plants, MaxEnt model, potential suitable habitat, risk analysis

Shengnan Ji, Jiarong Han, Yueheng Ren, Xiaodong Mu, Yanpeng Zhu. Prediction of suitable habitats and risk assessment for key invasive alien plant species on Hainan Island based on the MaxEnt model[J]. Biodiv Sci, 2025, 33(8): 25037.

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URL: https://www.biodiversity-science.net/EN/10.17520/biods.2025037

https://www.biodiversity-science.net/EN/Y2025/V33/I8/25037

Figures/Tables 4

References 56

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风险等级 Risk level	物种 Species	分布点数 Distribution point	海南岛适生面积比例 Suitability area ratio on Hainan Island (AR)
高风险 High-risk (0.5 ≤ AR < 1.0)	假高粱 Sorghum halepense	244	0.8641
	飞机草 Chromolaena odorata	2,005	0.7521
	刺苋 Amaranthus spinosus	789	0.5449
	马缨丹 Lantana camara	3,874	0.5394
中风险 Middle-risk (0.3 ≤ AR < 0.5)	银胶菊 Parthenium hysterophorus	1,370	0.4846
	藿香蓟 Ageratum conyzoides	44	0.4482
	五爪金龙 Ipomoea cairica	4,071	0.4230
	凤眼蓝 Eichhornia crassipes	995	0.4044
	假臭草 Praxelis clematidea	1,167	0.3137
低风险 Low-risk (0.1 ≤ AR < 0.3)	大薸 Pistia stratiotes	715	0.2981
低风险 Low-risk (0.1 ≤ AR < 0.3)	小蓬草 Erigeron canadensis	1,315	0.1734
极低风险 Minimal-risk (0 ≤ AR < 0.1)	三叶鬼针草 Bidens pilosa	6,145	0.0739
	空心莲子草 Alternanthera philoxeroides	1,370	0.0647
	紫茎泽兰 Ageratina adenophora	68	0.0615
	光荚含羞草 Mimosa bimucronata	52	0.0486
	毒莴苣 Lactuca serriola	25	0.0294
	垂序商陆 Phytolacca americana	1,051	0.0276
	薇甘菊 Mikania micrantha	4,726	0.0178
	互花米草 Spartina alterniflora	47	0.0076
	野燕麦 Avena fatua	176	0.0039
	落葵薯 Anredera cordifolia	1,176	0.0018
	苏门白酒草 Erigeron sumatrensis	2,882	0.0008
	水盾草 Cabomba caroliniana	23	0.0000
	加拿大一枝黄花 Solidago canadensis	149	0.0000
	豚草 Ambrosia artemisiifolia	137	0.0000

风险等级 Risk level	物种 Species	分布点数 Distribution point	海南岛适生面积比例 Suitability area ratio on Hainan Island (AR)
高风险 High-risk (0.5 ≤ AR < 1.0)	假高粱 Sorghum halepense	244	0.8641
	飞机草 Chromolaena odorata	2,005	0.7521
	刺苋 Amaranthus spinosus	789	0.5449
	马缨丹 Lantana camara	3,874	0.5394
中风险 Middle-risk (0.3 ≤ AR < 0.5)	银胶菊 Parthenium hysterophorus	1,370	0.4846
	藿香蓟 Ageratum conyzoides	44	0.4482
	五爪金龙 Ipomoea cairica	4,071	0.4230
	凤眼蓝 Eichhornia crassipes	995	0.4044
	假臭草 Praxelis clematidea	1,167	0.3137
低风险 Low-risk (0.1 ≤ AR < 0.3)	大薸 Pistia stratiotes	715	0.2981
低风险 Low-risk (0.1 ≤ AR < 0.3)	小蓬草 Erigeron canadensis	1,315	0.1734
极低风险 Minimal-risk (0 ≤ AR < 0.1)	三叶鬼针草 Bidens pilosa	6,145	0.0739
	空心莲子草 Alternanthera philoxeroides	1,370	0.0647
	紫茎泽兰 Ageratina adenophora	68	0.0615
	光荚含羞草 Mimosa bimucronata	52	0.0486
	毒莴苣 Lactuca serriola	25	0.0294
	垂序商陆 Phytolacca americana	1,051	0.0276
	薇甘菊 Mikania micrantha	4,726	0.0178
	互花米草 Spartina alterniflora	47	0.0076
	野燕麦 Avena fatua	176	0.0039
	落葵薯 Anredera cordifolia	1,176	0.0018
	苏门白酒草 Erigeron sumatrensis	2,882	0.0008
	水盾草 Cabomba caroliniana	23	0.0000
	加拿大一枝黄花 Solidago canadensis	149	0.0000
	豚草 Ambrosia artemisiifolia	137	0.0000