全球陆地保护地60年增长情况分析和趋势预测

doi:10.17520/biods.2015046

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

保护地建设已成为全球生物多样性保护的第一道防线。掌握其在不同尺度上的发展状况和变化趋势对保护地规划和建设有重要意义。针对已有研究在时间跨度、空间尺度以及结果对比方面的不足, 本文基于世界保护地数据库(World Database of Protected Areas, http://www.protectedplanet.net), 对全球、洲际、地区及国家尺度1950-2013年陆地保护地的增长情况进行描述和短期预测。结果发现: (1)全球保护地增长速率不断加快, 特别是在20世纪90年代以后。(2)洲际和地区保护地发展大致呈现3种增长趋势: 在美洲及大洋洲, 多数地区的保护地增长速率一直在加快; 在亚洲和欧洲, 多数地区的发展高峰出现在20世纪80、90年代; 在非洲, 多数地区的发展高峰为20世纪70年代及21世纪前10年。(3)各国保护地建设存在不平衡性, 仍有近一半国家的陆地保护地比例小于10%, 但这种差距随时间的推移有缩小的趋势。(4)绝大部分保护地增速均匀性低的国家分布在非洲。(5)虽然全球的《爱知生物多样性目标》在2020年预计不能完成, 但包括中国在内的22个国家有望如期达到目标。本文结果为未来保护地规划和建设工作的开展提供了参考依据。

关键词: 陆地保护地, 多尺度, 爱知生物多样性目标, 均匀性, Holt指数平滑法

Abstract

Protected areas (PAs) have become a key global effort to protect biodiversity. Understanding their status and growth trends is thus significant for planning and development of PAs. In considering the drawbacks of previous research (time and spatial scale and comparison of results), our study focused on the description and prediction of growth in terrestrial PAs from 1950 to 2013 within global, continental, regional and national scales, by using the World Database of Protected Areas (http://www.protectedplanet.net). The results showed that at the global scale, terrestrial PAs grew quickly especially after 1990s. At the continental and regional scales, three different trends appear. In America and Oceania, terrestrial PAs grew quickly, similar to trends found at the global scale. In Asia and Europe, peak growth occurred in 1980s and 1990s. In Africa, development peaked in the 1970s and 2000s. A non-equilibrium status existed among the countries with respect to development of PAs, the PAs coverage in nearly half of the countries is less than 10%, but this gap decreased over time. Most countries with weak growth uniformity of PAs located in Africa. At global scale, the Target 11 of the Aichi Biodiversity Target might not be reached in 2020, but 22 countries including China would achieve this goal in time. This study provides a reference for planning and development of future PAs.

Key words: terrestrial protected areas, multi-scale, Aichi Biodiversity Targets, uniformity, Holt’s exponential smoothing

范边, 马克明 (2015) 全球陆地保护地60年增长情况分析和趋势预测. 生物多样性, 23, 507-518. DOI: 10.17520/biods.2015046.

Bian Fan, Keming Ma (2015) Analysis and prediction of development in global terrestrial protected areas between 1950 and 2013. Biodiversity Science, 23, 507-518. DOI: 10.17520/biods.2015046.

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链接本文: https://www.biodiversity-science.net/CN/10.17520/biods.2015046

https://www.biodiversity-science.net/CN/Y2015/V23/I4/507

图/表 5

图1 1950-2013年洲际尺度陆地保护地发展。(a)各洲陆地保护地面积增长; (b)各洲保护地增量比例发展。

Fig. 1 Development of protected areas (PAs) in continental scale from 1950 to 2013. (a) The growth of areas in terrestrial PAs within continents; (b) The development in ratio of PAs increments within continents.

图2 洲际尺度陆地保护地发展高峰

Fig. 2 The wave of terrestrial protected areas development within continents

图3 陆地保护地增长热点区域

Fig. 3 Hot spots of terrestrial protected areas growth

图4 陆地保护地发展的国家分布。(a)保护地比例分布; (b)阶段增量百分比最大值分布。

Fig. 4 The distribution of terrestrial PAs developments within countries. (a) The distribution of PAs coverage within countries; (b)The distribution in maximum of PAs period increment within countries.

图5 陆地保护地增长趋势的短期预测(2020年)。(a)全球、洲际预测; (b)地区预测。

Fig. 5 The prediction of terrestrial PAs development in 2020. (a) The prediction in global and continental scales; (b) The predictionin regional scale.

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