生物多样性 ›› 1996, Vol. 04 ›› Issue (2): 69-77.DOI: 10.17520/biods.1996011

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

朱鹮(Nipponia nippon)种群生存力分析

李欣海,李典谟,路宝忠,翟天庆   

  1. (中国科学院动物研究所,  北京 100080)
    (陕西朱 保护观察站,  陕西洋县 723300)
  • 收稿日期:1994-07-21 修回日期:1995-09-25 出版日期:1996-05-20 发布日期:1996-05-20

Population viability analysis for the Crested Ibis (Nipponia nippon)

Li Xinhai, Li Dianmo, Lu Baozhong, Zhai Tianqing   

  1. Institute of Zoology , the Chinese Academy of Sciences , Beijing , 100080
  • Received:1994-07-21 Revised:1995-09-25 Online:1996-05-20 Published:1996-05-20

摘要: 到目前为止,只有一个野生朱鹮群体幸存下来,而且它的种群大小自1981年重新发现以来,一直在20只以下波动。本文应用种群生存力分析的方法,借助漩涡模型,根据朱鹮14年的种群数据,总结和预测了其种群动态,并着重研究了朱鹮的濒危程度。结果显示,按过去10余年的生存状况,朱鹮在50年内绝灭的可能性是98.5%,平均绝灭时间为15.72 年。现存种群数量很低,所以种群统计随机性对其命运有很大影响。灵敏度分析表明,当前的朱鹮种群对意外死亡和生存环境的波动较为敏感。保护工作的优先项目是对猎杀和天敌的控制以及从各个方面提高朱鹮的生活质量。

AbstractOnly one wild population of the Crested Ibis (Nipponia nippon)survives by now, and its size has been no more than twenty since being rediscovered in 1981. We put forward the population dynamics and endangered level by Population Viability Analysis (PVA) with the help of a computer simulation model——VORTEX model on the basis of the data from 14 year long monitoring. The result indicated with probability of 98.5 % that the Crested Ibis would be extinct 50 years later. The mean extinction time is 15.72 years. The population is so small that the fate of this species is strongly influenced by demography stochasticity. Sensitive analysis showed that the survival probability was sensitive to catastrophes and environmental variations.Consequently, the prior conservation project is controlling hunting and predating, as well as artificial intervention on behalf of the birds to improve the survival rate.