基于InVEST与倾向评分匹配模型评估秦岭国家级自然保护区水源涵养服务保护成效
收稿日期: 2020-07-07
录用日期: 2020-11-04
网络出版日期: 2020-12-31
基金资助
国家重点研发计划(2016YFC0503304)
Assessing the effectiveness of water retention ecosystem service in Qinling National Nature Reserve based on InVEST and propensity score matching model
Received date: 2020-07-07
Accepted date: 2020-11-04
Online published: 2020-12-31
自然保护区在保障水源涵养等生态系统服务方面发挥了重要作用, 对区域水资源的可持续利用具有重要意义。然而, 自然保护区水源涵养服务保护成效的主要影响因素仍然不清, 不利于自然保护区的有效管理和区域可持续发展目标的实现。本文拟探讨: (1)秦岭区域水源涵养服务的总体情况; (2)自然保护区对水源涵养服务的保护成效; (3)自然保护区水源涵养服务保护成效的主要影响因素是什么。本文采用InVEST模型计算秦岭区域19个国家级自然保护区2010-2015年的水源涵养量, 基于倾向评分配比法研究了自然保护区水源涵养服务保护成效, 并通过随机森林回归判断自然保护区水源涵养服务保护成效的主要影响因素。研究结果表明, 虽然在2010-2015年秦岭区域水源涵养服务整体降低, 但与自然保护区外的配对样本相比, 大多数自然保护区(63.16%)水源涵养服务保护成效显著(N = 12, P < 0.05); 少数保护区(26.32%)在减缓水源涵养服务降低的作用不如自然保护区外(N = 5, P < 0.05); 也有个别自然保护区(10.52%)对水源涵养服务保护成效不明显(N = 2, P > 0.05)。从主要影响因素来看, 自然保护区水源涵养服务保护成效主要受降水量变化和自然保护区资金投入的影响。结果显示: (1) 2010-2015年间秦岭区域水源涵养量减少较为明显, 但总体来看自然保护区在减缓水源涵养服务降低方面取得了积极成效。(2)降水量变化对水源涵养服务保护成效起到主导作用; (3)管理因素也对保护区水源涵养服务保护成效有一定影响, 在管理因素中资金投入的大小对水源涵养服务保护效果影响最大。因此, 建议进一步增加资金投入, 以提升自然保护区水源涵养服务的保护成效。
曹明 , 李俊生 , 王伟 , 夏聚一 , 冯春婷 , 付刚 , 黄文婕 , 刘方正 . 基于InVEST与倾向评分匹配模型评估秦岭国家级自然保护区水源涵养服务保护成效[J]. 生物多样性, 2021 , 29(5) : 617 -628 . DOI: 10.17520/biods.2020271
Aims: Nature reserves (NRs) play an important role in ensuring ecosystem services such as water retention, which are of great significance for the sustainable use of regional water resources. However, the main factors influencing the effectiveness of water retention in NRs are still unclear, which is not conducive to the effective management of NRs and the achievement of regional sustainable development goals. Therefore, the aims of this research are to explore: (1) the overall situation of water retention services in Qinling Mountains; (2) the conservation effectiveness of water retention services in NRs; and (3) the key influencing factors of the conservation effectiveness of water retention services in NRs.
Methods: Here, we used the InVEST model to calculate the water retention between 2010 and 2015 in Qinling Mountains related to 19 national nature reserves. Based on the propensity score matching approach, we assessed the conservation effectiveness of these nature reserves in ensuring the ecosystem service of water retention. We then used the random forest regression model to identify the factors that mainly affect the conservation effectiveness.
Results: The results showed that the water retention ecosystem service in Qinling Mountains generally reduced between 2010 and 2015. Compared with the matched samples outside the NRs, most reserves (63.16%) showed significant positive effects on water retention (N = 12, P < 0.05), while some reserves (26.32%) showed significant negative effects (N = 5, P < 0.05). There were also two reserves (10.52%) that had no significant effects on water retention (N = 2, P > 0.05). In addition, the conservation effectiveness of reserves in ensuring water retention was mainly affected by changes in precipitation and funding investment.
Conclusions: (1) Between 2010 and 2015, the water retention rate was reduced remarkably in Qinling Mountains, but the NRs had achieved positive effectiveness in mitigating the reduction of water retention in general; (2) Changes in precipitation play a dominant role in sustaining the ecosystem service of water retention; and (3) The management factors also affect the conservation effectiveness to certain extent, in which the amount of investment is the most important. Therefore, we suggest increasing capital investment in the future to improve the conservation effectiveness of water retention service of NRs.
| [1] | Amin A, Choumert-Nkolo J, Combes JL, Combes Motel P, Kéré EN, Ongono-Olinga JG, Schwartz S (2019) Neighborhood effects in the Brazilian Amaz?nia: Protected areas and deforestation. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 93, 272-288. |
| [2] | Austin PC, Mamdani MM (2006) A comparison of propensity score methods: A case study estimating the effectiveness of post-AMI statin use. Statistics in Medicine, 25, 2084-2106. |
| [3] | Bao YB, Li T, Liu H, Ma T, Wang HX, Liu K, Shen X, Liu XH (2016) Spatial and temporal changes of water conservation of Loess Plateau in northern Shaanxi Province by InVEST model. Geographical Research, 35, 664-676. (in Chinese with English abstract) |
| [3] | [ 包玉斌, 李婷, 柳辉, 马涛, 王怀香, 刘康, 沈茜, 刘心浩 (2016) 基于InVEST模型的陕北黄土高原水源涵养功能时空变化. 地理研究, 35, 664-676.] |
| [4] | Bridgewater P, Babin D (2017) UNESCO-MAB Biosphere Reserves already deal with ecosystem services and sustainable development. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, USA, 114, E4318. |
| [5] | Briggs J (2016) Global biodiversity loss: Exaggerated versus realistic estimates. Environmental Skeptics and Critics, 5(2), 20-27. |
| [6] | Burgess ND, Butynski TM, Cordeiro NJ, Doggart NH, Fjelds? J, Howell KM, Kilahama FB, Loader SP, Lovett JC, Mbilinyi B, Menegon M, Moyer DC, Nashanda E, Perkin A, Rovero F, Stanley WT, Stuart SN (2007) The biological importance of the Eastern Arc Mountains of Tanzania and Kenya. Biological Conservation, 134, 209-231. |
| [7] | Chen HG, Pan XF, Huang YY, He BC, Chen F, Pan A (2017) Propensity score matching method and its implementation in Stata software. Chinese Journal of Health Statistics, 34, 987-990. (in Chinese) |
| [7] | [ 陈亨贵, 潘雄飞, 黄媛媛, 何保昌, 陈法, 潘安 (2017) 倾向评分配比法及其在Stata软件实现. 中国卫生统计, 34, 987-990.] |
| [8] | Chen KH, Zhang XY (2006) Research on system of comprehensive evaluation of Zhouzhi National-level Nature Reserve. Resource Development & Market, 22(2), 118-120. (in Chinese with English abstract) |
| [8] | [ 陈凯华, 张孝远 (2006) 周至国家级自然保护区综合评价体系研究. 资源开发与市场, 22(2), 118-120.] |
| [9] | Chen SS, Liu K, Bao YB, Chen H (2016) Spatial pattern and influencing factors of water conservation service function in Shangluo City. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 36, 1546-1554. (in Chinese with English abstract) |
| [9] | [ 陈姗姗, 刘康, 包玉斌, 陈海 (2016) 商洛市水源涵养服务功能空间格局与影响因素. 地理科学, 36, 1546-1554.] |
| [10] | Chiu M, Rezai MR, Maclagan LC, Austin PC, Shah BR, Redelmeier DA, Tu JV (2016) Moving to a highly walkable neighborhood and incidence of hypertension: A propensity-score matched cohort study. Environmental Health Perspectives, 124, 754-760. |
| [11] | Dudley N (2008) Guidelines for Applying Protected Area Management Categories. IUCN, Gland, Switzerland. |
| [12] | Fan YN, Liu K, Chen SS, Yuan JG (2017) Spatial pattern analysis on water conservative functionality of land ecosystem in northern slope of Qinling Mountains. Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation, 37(2), 50-56. (in Chinese with English abstract) |
| [12] | [ 范亚宁, 刘康, 陈姗姗, 袁家根 (2017) 秦岭北麓陆地生态系统水源涵养功能的空间格局. 水土保持通报, 37(2), 50-56.] |
| [13] | Finlayson M, Cruz R, Davidson N, Alder J, Cork S, Groot RS, Lévêque C, Milton GR, Peterson G, Pritchard D (2005) Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: Ecosystems and Human Well-being: Wetlands and Water Synthesis. Island Press, Washington, DC. |
| [14] | Gong J, Yan LL, Xu CX, Guo QH (2020) A comparative review of research highlights on ecosystem services of China and USA in the past 30 years. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 40, 3537-3547. (in Chinese with English abstract) |
| [14] | [ 巩杰, 燕玲玲, 徐彩仙, 郭青海 (2020) 近30年来中美生态系统服务研究热点对比分析. 生态学报, 40, 3537-3547.] |
| [15] | Gr?mping U (2009) Variable importance assessment in regression: Linear regression versus random forest. The American Statistician, 63, 308-319. |
| [16] | Hansen AJ, Rotella JJ (2002) Biophysical factors, land use, and species viability in and around nature reserves. Conservation Biology, 16, 1112-1122. |
| [17] | Huang CH, Yang J, Zhang WJ (2013) Development of ecosystem services evaluation models: Research progress. Chinese Journal of Ecology, 32, 3360-3367. (in Chinese with English abstract) |
| [17] | [ 黄从红, 杨军, 张文娟 (2013) 生态系统服务功能评估模型研究进展. 生态学杂志, 32, 3360-3367.] |
| [18] | Ian G, Richard G, Sharif J, Maaike M, Ian M, Gill B, Pierre C, Nina M, John W, Naamal S, Tesfay W, Matt F, Neil B, Nigel V (2012) Eastern Afromontane Biodiversity Hotspot. Birdlife International, Nairobi, Kenya. |
| [19] | Ingram JC, Redford KH, Watson JEM (2012) Applying ecosystem services approaches for biodiversity conservation: Benefits and challenges. Sapiens, 5, 1-10. |
| [20] | Jin L (2008) Evaluation of Ecosystem Services of Xilingol Grassland Nature Reserve. PhD dissertation, Inner Mongolia Agricultural University, Hohhot. (in Chinese with English abstract) |
| [20] | [ 金良 (2008) 锡林郭勒草原自然保护区生态系统服务功能价值评估研究. 博士学位论文, 内蒙古农业大学, 呼和浩特.] |
| [21] | Jin X (2015) Valuation of Ecosystem Services of Hongxing Wetland National Nature Reserve in Heilongjiang Province. PhD dissertation, Northeast Forestry University, Harbin. (in Chinese with English abstract) |
| [21] | [ 金辛 (2015) 黑龙江红星湿地国家级自然保护区生态系统服务功能价值评估. 博士学位论文, 东北林业大学, 哈尔滨.] |
| [22] | Joppa LN, Pfaff A (2011) Global protected area impacts. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 278, 1633-1638. |
| [23] | Kandziora M, Burkhard B, Müller F (2013) Interactions of ecosystem properties, ecosystem integrity and ecosystem service indicators—A theoretical matrix exercise. Ecological Indicators, 28, 54-78. |
| [24] | Lehrer D, Becker N, Bar P (2019) The drivers behind nature conservation cost. Land Use Policy, 89, 104222. |
| [25] | Li B, Zhang JT (2010) Patch shape indices and scale fractal analysis of steppe landscape in the Loess Plateau. Acta Agrestia Sinica, 18(2), 141-147. (in Chinese with English abstract) |
| [25] | [ 李斌, 张金屯 (2010) 黄土高原草原景观斑块形状的指数和分形分析. 草地学报, 18(2), 141-147.] |
| [26] | Li JS, Jin YC, Wang W, Zhao ZP, Wu XP (2016) Conservation of Terrestrial Biodiversity in China. Science Press, Beijing. (in Chinese) |
| [26] | [ 李俊生, 靳勇超, 王伟, 赵志平, 吴晓莆 (2016) 中国陆域生物多样性保护优先区域. 科学出版社, 北京.] |
| [27] | Li SC, Zhang H, Zhou XW, Yu HB, Li WJ (2020) Enhancing protected areas for biodiversity and ecosystem services in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Ecosystem Services, 43, 101090. |
| [28] | Liao KH, Xu SH, Wu JC, Shi XQ (2012) Uncertainty analysis for spatial prediction of soil saturated hydraulic conductivity. Advances in Water Science, 23, 200-205. (in Chinese with English abstract) |
| [28] | [ 廖凯华, 徐绍辉, 吴吉春, 施小清 (2012) 土壤饱和导水率空间预测的不确定性分析. 水科学进展, 23, 200-205.] |
| [29] | Liu JH, Zhang H, Zhao AQ (2007) Preliminary research on sustainable development of Taibai Mountain National Nature Reserve. Forest Resources Management, (2), 15-19. (in Chinese with English abstract) |
| [29] | [ 柳江华, 张海, 赵爱青 (2007) 太白山国家级自然保护区可持续发展初步研究. 林业资源管理, (2), 15-19.] |
| [30] | Liu JL, Ma XY, Zhang ZH, Zhao WS (2013) Multi-scale prediction model and transformation relation of soil saturated hydraulic conductivity. Advances in Water Science, 24, 568-573. (in Chinese with English abstract) |
| [30] | [ 刘继龙, 马孝义, 张振华, 赵伟森 (2013) 土壤饱和导水率的多尺度预测模型与转换关系. 水科学进展, 24, 568-573.] |
| [31] | Liu ZQ (1983) The distribution of soil zones in Shaanxi. Journal of Shaanxi Normal University (Natural Science Edition), 11, 131-137. (in Chinese with English abstract) |
| [31] | [ 刘兆谦 (1983) 陕西土壤地带性分布规律. 陕西师范大学学报(自然科学版), 11, 131-137.] |
| [32] | Machado M, Young CEF, Clauzet M (2020) Environmental funds to support protected areas: Lessons from Brazilian experiences. Parks, 26, 47-62. |
| [33] | Miao JQ, Sun S, Wang ZQ, Huang GQ (2017) Evaluating the ecosystem services of Gaotianyan Nature Reserve in Lianhua County, Jiangxi Province. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 37, 6422-6430. (in Chinese with English abstract) |
| [33] | [ 缪建群, 孙松, 王志强, 黄国勤 (2017) 江西高天岩自然保护区生态系统服务功能价值评估. 生态学报, 37, 6422-6430.] |
| [34] | Ning YZ, Zhang FP, Feng Q, Wei YF, Ding JB, Zhang Y (2020) Temporal and spatial variation of water conservation function in Qinling Mountain and its influencing factors. Chinese Journal of Ecology, 39, 3080-3091. (in Chinese with English abstract) |
| [34] | [ 宁亚洲, 张福平, 冯起, 魏永芬, 丁家宝, 张元 (2020) 秦岭水源涵养功能时空变化及其影响因素. 生态学杂志, 39, 3080-3091.] |
| [35] | Pearson LJ, Dare M (2019) Framing up the “stretching” of co-management. Society & Natural Resources, 32, 363-381. |
| [36] | Rosenbaum PR (1989) Optimal matching for observational studies. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 84, 1024-1032. |
| [37] | Schirpke U, de Marino D, Marucci A, Palmieri M, Scolozzi R (2017) Operationalising ecosystem services for effective management of protected areas: Experiences and challenges. Ecosystem Services, 28, 105-114. |
| [38] | Shangguan W, Dai YJ (2013) A China Dataset of Soil Properties for Land Surface Modeling. National Tibetan Plateau Data Center, Lhasa. (in Chinese) |
| [38] | [ 上官微, 戴永久 (2013) 面向陆面模拟的中国土壤数据集. 国家青藏高原科学数据中心, 拉萨.] |
| [39] | Sharp R, Tallis HT, Ricketts T, Guerry AD, Wood SA, Chapin-Kramer R, Nelson E, Ennaanay D, Wolny S, Olwero N, Vigerstol K, Pennington D, Mendoza G, Aukema J, Foster J, Forrest J, Cameron D, Arkema K, Lonsdorf E, Kennedy C, Verutes G, Kim CK, Guannel G, Papenfus M, Toft J, Marsik M, Bernhardt J, Griffin R, Gowinski K, Chaumont N, Perelman A, Lacayo M, Mandle L, Hamel P, Vogl AL, Rogers L, Bierbower W (2015) InVEST 3.2.0 User’s Guide. The Natural Capital Project, Stanford University, University of Minnesota, The Nature Conservancy, and World Wildlife Fund, Palo Alto, California. |
| [40] | Su CH, Fu BJ (2013) Evolution of ecosystem services in the Chinese Loess Plateau under climatic and land use changes. Global and Planetary Change, 101, 119-128. |
| [41] | Tang Y, Zhu WP, Zhang H, Song Y (2015) A review on principle and application of the InVEST model. Ecological Science, 34, 204-208. (in Chinese with English abstract) |
| [41] | [ 唐尧, 祝炜平, 张慧, 宋瑜 (2015) InVEST模型原理及其应用研究进展. 生态科学, 34, 204-208.] |
| [42] | Vereecken H, Diels J, van Orshoven J, Feyen J, Bouma J (1992) Functional evaluation of pedotransfer functions for the estimation of soil hydraulic properties. Soil Science Society of America Journal, 56, 1371-1378. |
| [43] | Wang W, Pechacek P, Zhang MX, Xiao NW, Zhu JG, Li JS (2013) Effectiveness of nature reserve system for conserving Tropical Forests: A statistical evaluation of Hainan Island, China. PLoS ONE, 8, e57561. |
| [44] | Wang Y, Xu P, Fu B, Wang W, Wang HW (2018) Water conservation function assessment models of forest ecosystem: A review. Ecological Economy, 34, 158-164, 169. (in Chinese with English abstract) |
| [44] | [ 王尧, 徐佩, 傅斌, 王威, 王海雯 (2018) 森林生态系统水源涵养功能评估模型研究进展. 生态经济, 34, 158-164, 169.] |
| [45] | Wu N, Chen N, Wang ZG (2019) Evaluating conservation effectiveness of ecological protected areas in Anhui Province based on ecosystem services value. Journal of Anhui Agricultural University, 46, 75-82. (in Chinese with English abstract) |
| [45] | [ 吴楠, 陈凝, 王在高 (2019) 基于生态系统服务价值的安徽省生态保护地保护成效评估. 安徽农业大学学报, 46, 75-82.] |
| [46] | Xiao Y, Ouyang ZY (2019) Spatial-temporal patterns and driving forces of water retention service in China. Chinese Geographical Science, 29, 100-111. |
| [47] | Xu WH, Xiao Y, Zhang JJ, Yang W, Zhang L, Hull V, Wang Z, Zheng H, Liu JG, Polasky S, Jiang L, Xiao Y, Shi XW, Rao EM, Lu F, Wang XK, Daily GC, Ouyang ZY (2017) Strengthening protected areas for biodiversity and ecosystem services in China. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, USA, 114, 1601-1606. |
| [48] | Yang XH, Guo RF (2002) Study on the relationship between precipitation and forest ecosystem. Forestry Science & Technology, 27(6), 11-15. (in Chinese with English abstract) |
| [48] | [ 杨新华, 郭荣发 (2002) 论森林生态系统与降水的关系. 林业科技, 27(6), 11-15.] |
| [49] | You SC, Di SC, Yuan Y (2009) Study on soil field capacity estimation in the Loess Plateau Region. Journal of Natural Resources, 24, 545-552. (in Chinese with English abstract) |
| [49] | [ 游松财, 邸苏闯, 袁晔 (2009) 黄土高原地区土壤田间持水量的计算. 自然资源学报, 24, 545-552.] |
| [50] | Yu BW, Rao EM, Chao XL, Shi JK, Zhang CP, Xu WH, Xiao Y, Ouyang ZY (2016) Evaluating the effectiveness of nature reserves in soil conservation on Hainan Island. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 36, 3694-3702. (in Chinese with English abstract) |
| [50] | [ 于博威, 饶恩明, 晁雪林, 史建康, 张翠萍, 徐卫华, 肖燚, 欧阳志云 (2016) 海南岛自然保护区对土壤保持服务功能的保护效果. 生态学报, 36, 3694-3702.] |
| [51] | Yu FZ, Zhang ZQ, Chen LQ, Shen ZP, You HM (2014) Study on water conservation function of different forestlands in Lushan Nature Reserve, Jiangxi Province. Research of Soil and Water Conservation, 21, 255-259. (in Chinese with English abstract) |
| [51] | [ 于法展, 张忠启, 陈龙乾, 沈正平, 尤海梅 (2014) 江西庐山自然保护区不同林地水源涵养功能研究. 水土保持研究, 21, 255-259.] |
| [52] | Zhang L, Li CJ, Xia JL, Wang YJ, Wang L, Jiang ZW (2012) Study on propensity score interval matching in non-randomization controlled trials. Chinese Journal of Health Statistics, 29(1), 53-57. (in Chinese with English abstract) |
| [52] | [ 张亮, 李婵娟, 夏结来, 王永吉, 王陵, 蒋志伟 (2012) 倾向得分区间匹配法用于非随机对照试验的探索与研究. 中国卫生统计, 29(1), 53-57.] |
| [53] | Zhao HW, Wu RD, Long YC, Hu JM, Yang FL, Jin T, Wang JJ, Hu PJ, Wu W, Diao YX, Guo Y (2019) Individual-level performance of nature reserves in forest protection and the effects of management level and establishment age. Biological Conservation, 233, 23-30. |
| [54] | Zhuo J, He HJ, Wang J (2015) Assessment of water conservation capacity in Qinling Mountains area. Journal of Shaanxi Meteorology, (3), 12-16. (in Chinese) |
| [54] | [ 卓静, 何慧娟, 王娟 (2015) 秦岭地区水源涵养能力评估. 陕西气象, (3), 12-16.] |
/
| 〈 |
|
〉 |
